The Big Picture: Why the Skubal-Tigers Salary Standoff Could Make MLB History

Before Tarik Skubal embarks on his final season under team control in Detroit, prepare for a salary showdown unlike any other since Major League Baseball’s arbitration system began more than 50 years ago.

Skubal is seeking $32 million in arbitration. The Tigers countered at $19 million. The $13 million chasm between the team and their two-time Cy Young ace is a record. So is the figure that Skubal is pursuing.

No pitcher has ever made even $20 million in arbitration. The record for a starter belongs to David Price, who, coincidentally, avoided arbitration with the Tigers when the two sides agreed to a $19.75 million deal. That was 11 years ago. 

Since then, the one-year contracts for the top arbitration-eligible position players have skyrocketed. Juan Soto holds the record at $31 million, a number he and the Yankees settled at in 2024. Shohei Ohtani also reached the $30 million mark in his final year of arbitration with the Angels in 2023. 

But on the pitching side, the figures haven’t jumped nearly as substantially. Price’s number still stands as the zenith. That fact surely isn’t lost on Skubal, who’s one of the eight members of the MLBPA’s executive subcommittee. He is setting the bar high, and attempting to create a new highwater mark for pitchers of his ilk, a year before what will likely be a contentious labor battle. 

If Skubal were to win his case, it would not only benefit arbitration-eligible aces to come but would also represent a monumental moment in the current system’s history. 

The Risk of Arbitration: What It Means

The most that any player has been awarded at an arbitration hearing is $19.9 million, a request won by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. before the 2024 season. Clearly, that process didn’t impact his future in Toronto. The two sides avoided another hearing a year later when they settled at $28.5 million before the 2025 season. Three months later, the Blue Jays and the superstar first baseman agreed to a $500 million extension. 

But arbitration hearings, during which a player has to listen to his team pick apart his flaws, carry inherent risk. They can get contentious and don’t always end amicably. 

​​In 2023, Milwaukee ace Corbin Burnes and the Brewers went to a hearing over a difference of less than $1 million. The Brewers won the hearing — Burnes made $10.01 million instead of the $10.75 million he was seeking — but lost the relationship. Afterward, Burnes let it be known he was hurt by what his team had to say about him during the process. One year later, ahead of his final season under team control, he was traded to the Orioles. 

Similarly, questions continue to linger about Skubal’s future in Detroit as he prepares for his final season before free agency. The more the two sides squabble over money, the more questions and trade rumors will intensify.

This isn’t the same as Burnes’ situation. Given the ask, it’s at least understandable why the Tigers don’t want to acquiesce. 

MLB Trade Rumors’ model projected Skubal to make around $17.8 million in arbitration based on comparable players and their service time, which is less than the Tigers’ request. The highest year-over-year jump for a pitcher in arbitration was $9.6 million, when Jacob deGrom and the Mets agreed on a $17 million salary before the 2019 season. Skubal is seeking a $21.85 million raise from the $10.15 million contract he received last year. 

It’s a staggering sum, but he’s a staggering talent with a compelling case. 

Is Skubal Worth the Hefty Salary?

When deGrom received his raise coming off his first Cy Young season, he was entering his second year of arbitration eligibility. This is Skubal’s third, and he’s coming off back-to-back Cy Young seasons in which he threw more than 190 innings, made more than 30 starts, racked up more than 225 strikeouts and led the American League in ERA. He was also exceptional in the 2025 postseason, registering a 1.74 ERA with 36 strikeouts over three starts. 

It’s worth noting that, as ESPN pointed out, players with more than five years of service time like Skubal are also allowed to compare their salary to other comparable players — not just those who are arbitration eligible. But Skubal is still seeking less than what other pitching standouts will make in 2026, from Zack Wheeler ($42 million) to Gerrit Cole ($36 million). In recent years, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander also received more than $40 million a year from the Mets. 

Still, we haven’t seen a player receive even $20 million at a hearing before. 

The $13 million gap between Skubal and his team is an enormous figure, especially if the Tigers are hoping to use that money to attract another difference-making piece. Keep in mind, too, if this process deteriorates the relationship between Skubal and the Tigers, or the Tigers don’t think they can keep Skubal long term, or they simply want to recoup as much value as possible from a player of his caliber while they still can, a $19 million salary is likely to add more potential trade suitors for Skubal this year than a $32 million figure would.  

What's Ahead? 

The Tigers operate as a "file-and-trial" team, meaning they treat the date to exchange arbitration figures as a hard deadline. If no deal is in place at that point, there’s a general understanding that a one-year contract won’t be agreed upon and an arbitration hearing is on the horizon. 

Once that hearing takes place in late January or early February, there’s no meeting in the middle; either Skubal wins or the Tigers do. If it gets to that point, as it is tracking toward, the Tigers will have to nitpick their ace’s blemishes to a three-person panel in a hearing unlike any before it. With the best pitcher on the planet involved, it will be tough to find those faults. 

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on X at @RowanKavner.