Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto? Ranking MLB offseason moves paying off most in 2024

Before the 2024 season began, we saw Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Dylan Cease get traded, multiple Nippon Professional Baseball standouts make the jump to the majors and the Dodgers spend more than $1 billion upgrading their roster.

We had an idea then about the winners and losers of the offseason, but the first third of the regular season has included plenty of surprises — both positive and negative — that paint a clearer picture of this winter's best moves.

While Shohei Ohtani and Soto are providing the boost their teams hoped for and Seth Lugo and Shōta Imanaga have far surpassed expectations, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery — two of the biggest names on the free-agent market — have gotten off to rocky starts after signing much later than anticipated. Meanwhile, Josh Hader, the best closer on the market, had a 6.39 ERA in April before settling into a rhythm in May, while Jung Hoo-Lee's debut season is already done after suffering a season-ending shoulder injury.

Needless to say, not every move we expected to make the biggest impact has played out as expected. Of course, there's still plenty of time for that to change. But for now, taking contract terms and how the players were acquired into account, these are the 30(-plus) offseason deals and additions paying off the most in 2024.

Honorable Mentions

Richie Palacios, OF, Tampa Bay Rays (acquired in trade with Cardinals)
Jesse Winker, OF, Washington Nationals (added in FA)
James Paxton, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (added in FA)
Luke Raley, 1B/OF, Seattle Mariners/José Caballero, SS, Tampa Bay Rays (traded for each other)

While neither player from January's one-for-one deal between the Mariners and Rays is lighting the world on fire, each has brought value to his respective club. Raley is providing some needed pop in the Seattle lineup, while Caballero leads the American League in steals.

Ryan Pepiot, SP, Tampa Bay Rays (trade with Dodgers)

It's a tough deal for the 26-year-old that his production will be compared to that of Tyler Glasnow, the pitcher he was traded for this winter. But the Rays were never going to pay up for Glasnow, and Pepiot is plenty productive when healthy. He should help the Tampa Bay rotation for a long time.

Rebounding Duos

30. Kyle Gibson/Lance Lynn, SPs, St. Louis Cardinals (FA)
29. Sean Manaea/Luis Severino, SPs, New York Mets (FA)

Each of these veteran arms had an ERA well north of 4.00 last season, and each of them is well under that mark to start the 2024 season. They won't be mentioned among the top pitchers in the sport, but they've all met or exceeded expectations with their new clubs.

The Boppers

28. Michael Busch, INF, Chicago Cubs (trade with Dodgers)

He has slowed down considerably since his hot start, but he still ranks fourth in OPS for a Cubs team that needs all the offense it can get. This looks like it could be a mutually beneficial deal for the Cubs and the Dodgers, who got two prospects in the trade, one of whom (Zyhir Hope) is raking in Single-A.

27. J.D. Martinez, DH, New York Mets (added in FA)

While he isn't slugging quite the way he was last year, he is still one of the Mets' most potent offensive threats. Should they decide to sell, he will be one of the top DH options available.

26. Rhys Hoskins, 1B/DH, Milwaukee Brewers (added in FA)

The Brewers sport the fourth-best OPS in MLB. The success of their offense has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2024 season, and Hoskins leads that group with 10 home runs.

25. Cody Bellinger, OF/1B, Chicago Cubs (re-signed in FA)

While he hasn't graded out as well defensively as usual, his rare versatility gives the Cubs the ability to play him in the outfield or at first base. At the plate, it's been a continuation of the more contact-oriented approach he demonstrated last year. Though he's also not hitting quite to the same level, he remains one of Chicago's top offensive threats.

24. Teoscar Hernández, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (added in FA)

The change of scenery has served Hernández well. While swing and miss will always be part of his game, he is slugging closer to the levels he did in Toronto than he did last year in Seattle. His 12 homers rank second on the Dodgers. Maybe the multi-year deal he was seeking this offseason will await next winter.

In Case You Missed It

23. Michael Lorenzen, SP, Texas Rangers (added in FA)

Among the many late free-agent signings, Lorenzen's might have flown under the radar. He has a 2.39 ERA in his past six starts and has been a vital piece in a depleted Rangers rotation.

22. Bryan Hudson, RP, Milwaukee Brewers (acquired in trade with Dodgers)
21. Kirby Yates, RP, Texas Rangers (added in FA)

Relievers are people, too, and Hudson and Yates both deserve some attention. The Brewers acquired Hudson, a 27-year-old lefty who had a 7.27 ERA in six career major-league appearances entering this season, from the Dodgers in January. He now leads all Brewers relievers in nearly every statistical category and trails only star closer Emmanuel Clase for the most bWAR among all MLB relievers. Yates, meanwhile, has been one of the only reliable pieces in the Rangers' scuffling bullpen, sporting an ERA under 1.00 while going a perfect 8-for-8 in save opportunities. He has allowed just eight hits in 20.1 innings.

20. Erick Fedde, SP, Chicago White Sox (added in FA)

It takes a special performance for the White Sox to be represented here, and Fedde is deserving of it. A 31-year-old who resurrected his career last year in Korea, Fedde now ranks among MLB's top seven pitchers in bWAR. After signing a two-year, $15 million deal this offseason, he will be a name to watch at the deadline for contenders willing to pay the White Sox for more than a rental.

Yankees Depth

19. Alex Verdugo, OF, New York Yankees (acquired in trade with Red Sox)

In a star-studded outfield, it's not just Aaron Judge and Juan Soto producing. By defensive runs saved, Verdugo has been the best defensive left fielder in baseball this year. That's especially noteworthy considering the Yankees ranked last in the category at the position last season. He's also producing more at the plate than he did the past couple of years in Boston, and his underlying numbers suggest he should be doing even better.

18. Marcus Stroman, SP, New York Yankees (added in FA)

Wherever he goes, Stroman tends to produce. He was an All-Star for the Blue Jays in 2019, had a 3.02 ERA for the Mets in 2021, was an All-Star last year for the Cubs and has been even better this year in the Yankees rotation. With a six-pitch mix, he can constantly tinker. This year, he's utilizing a more well-rounded mix and featuring his cutter and slider more to great effect.

The New-Look West

17. Joc Pederson, DH, Arizona Diamondbacks (added in FA)

The D-backs made a bevy of moves this offseason trying to capitalize on last year's run to the World Series. The best might've been the one-year deal for Pederson, who has been their top offensive threat.

16. Jordan Hicks, SP, San Francisco Giants (added in FA)

You'll see the reliever-to-starter well represented the rest of the way on this list, beginning with Hicks, who looks like a bargain at $11 million annually over the next four years. After an exceptional start to the season, he has seen his ERA steadily climb from a sparkling 1.59 mark at the end of April to a still noteworthy 2.70 mark at the end of May, in large part because his home run rate spiked. It'll be interesting to see how the Giants decide to handle him as he approaches his career high in innings pitched.

15. Matt Chapman, 3B, San Francisco Giants (added in FA)

Chapman can be one of the best or worst hitters in baseball depending which week you catch him. Last month was the perfect example. He was 9-for-53 (.170) with two extra-base hits from May 1-15, 13-for-23 (.565) with eight extra-base hits from May 17-23 and 4-for-26 (.154) with one extra-base hit the final seven days of the month. In total, he has been a slightly above league-average bat and a terrific third baseman, which is right in line with expectations.

14. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (added in FA)

When you become the highest-paid pitcher ever, massive expectations will follow. While he hasn't looked like a Cy Young just yet — or the best pitcher coming over from NPB this year — his terrific 2.67 ERA in the 11 starts since his forgettable debut demonstrates the 25-year-old's ability to adjust. Better days are likely ahead.

Front and Central

13. Sonny Gray, SP, St. Louis Cardinals (added in FA)

While Lynn and Gibson have been helpful pieces, the Cardinals needed an ace to have any real hope of contending. Gray provides that, though his first five starts of the year (30.1 IP, 0.89 ERA, 38 K, 5 BB) were a lot more inspiring than his past five (26.2 IP, 39 K, 10 BB). Still, that 12.2 K/9 is the best mark of his career and a welcome sign for a Cardinals rotation that desperately needed to miss more bats.

12. Jack Flaherty, SP, Detroit Tigers (added in FA)

What a turnaround it's been for Flaherty, who leads the American League in strikeouts and ranks fourth among all qualified starters with a career-high 11.64 K/9. His whiff, chase and walk rates are all the best they've ever been. He followed up 6.2 shutout innings against the Red Sox with five more shutout innings Monday against the Rangers before leaving the start with back tightness, so that'll be something to monitor.

The Win-Win

11. Corbin Burnes, SP, Baltimore Orioles/Joey Ortiz, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers (traded for each other)

It's a two-for-one special here. Burnes has given the depleted Baltimore rotation exactly what it needs, but it came at no small cost. As gut-wrenching as it was for Brewers fans to see Burnes go, they have to be thrilled by what they're seeing from Ortiz, who has been one of the best rookies in baseball this year.

More Righty Headliners

10. Aaron Nola, SP, Philadelphia Phillies (re-signed in FA)

The Phillies didn't do much this offseason. What they did do — bringing back Nola on a seven-year, $172 million extension — has them in prime position to win the NL East and contend for the top rotation in the sport.

9. Dylan Cease, SP, San Diego Padres (acquired in trade with White Sox)

With Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove on the shelf, the Padres' decision to trade for Cease becomes all the more important. He ranks sixth in MLB in K/9 and is one of nine qualified pitchers with a WHIP under 1.00 and an opponents' batting average under .200.

8. Tyler Glasnow, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (acquired in trade with Rays)

He has provided the Dodgers everything they could have asked for when they acquired him in December — and then promptly extended him for four more years before he had thrown a pitch for his hometown team. He leads the majors in strikeouts and ranks third among qualified starters in WHIP and opponents' batting average. Most importantly, the oft-injured righty has been available. Seth Lugo and Zack Wheeler are the only two pitchers who have thrown more innings this year.

Braves New World

7. Reynaldo López, SP, Atlanta Braves (added in FA)
6. Chris Sale, SP, Atlanta Braves (acquired in trade with Red Sox)

The Braves knew they were going to try to convert López, a standout reliever for the past three seasons with the White Sox, back into a starter. They also believed a healthy version of Sale could provide stability to the rotation. What they couldn't have known is that both could be All-Stars. López's 1.73 ERA is the third-best mark among starters who've thrown at least 50 innings this year, while Sale is the reigning NL Pitcher of the Month after allowing two earned runs with 45 strikeouts and only two walks in 32 May innings (before a surprising clunker against the A's to begin June). Vaughn Grissom's struggles in Boston make the Sale deal look like a coup for Atlanta.

Who'd Have Thought?

5. Jurickson Profar, OF, San Diego Padres (added in FA)

Twelve years after he was the top prospect in baseball, Profar is now enjoying his best season as a major-leaguer. His .426 on-base percentage leads all qualified hitters. On a team that features sluggers Fernando Tatís Jr. and Manny Machado, it is Profar who leads the Padres with a .915 OPS. And he is doing it on a $1 million salary.

4. Seth Lugo, SP, Kansas City Royals (added in FA)

How do the Royals have the fourth-best rotation ERA in MLB? Start with Lugo, who's 9-1 with a 2.13 ERA through 13 starts. Though he no longer has the best ERA in the American League — on Tuesday, he allowed more than two earned runs in a start for just the second time this season — it has still been a career year for the 34-year-old converted reliever, who has thrown more innings than any pitcher this season and looks well worth his $15 million salary.

3. Shōta Imanaga, SP, Chicago Cubs (added in FA)

When it comes to bang for the buck, the Cubs have to be thrilled with their four-year, $53 million commitment to Imanaga, who had a 0.84 ERA through his first nine MLB starts before stumbling over his past two outings. Still, he ranks fourth in ERA and seventh in strikeout-to-walk ratio among all qualified starters.

MVP Caliber

1b. Shohei Ohtani, DH, Los Angeles Dodgers (added in FA)
1a. Juan Soto, OF, New York Yankees (acquired in trade with Padres)

If we're taking just this year into account, the top spot probably belongs to Soto, who has electrified the Yankees offense and trails only his teammate Aaron Judge for the top OPS in baseball. If we're considering the long-term value both on and off the field, it's Ohtani, who is such a dynamic offensive force that he could contend for an MVP this year as strictly a DH and should be well worth the heavily-deferred $700 million investment. Either way, these two moves are the best of the offseason and will make this weekend's meeting in the Bronx (Saturday's FOX matchup is at 7:35 p.m. ET) all the more fascinating.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.