San Francisco Giants: Evaluating Free Agent Closer Options

May 12, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; San Francisco Giants relief pitcher Santiago Casilla (46) reacts after getting pulled out of the game in the ninth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco Giants hope to sign one of the three elite free-agent closer options to ensure another 32 blown saves doesn’t occur again. An in-depth comparison to see who fits best, and the most effective pitch of all three options may come as a surprise.

San Francisco Giants’ fans watched even year magic evaporate, as the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians put on a familiar show in October. A show dominated by an October blueprint for success the Giants created back in 2010. Have a deep starting rotation followed by a bottomless power bullpen, and enough timely hitting to win.

That blueprint didn’t match the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen identity this season, and the 32 blown saves this season, two of which came in the postseason, ultimately were too much for the Giants to overcome.

San Francisco failed to acquire one of the coveted four closers at the August trade deadline, but it wasn’t from lack of effort. Yes, the Giants were all-in during their pursuit, but optimism remained minimal due to the haul teams were seeking in return for their closers. San Francisco didn’t have the farm depth to compete with other suitors.

Now with free agency starting, the Giants have the opportunity to acquire the services from three of those four closers from a different type of organization depth most clubs can’t match. Deep pockets.

Those three closers are Aroldis Chapman of the Chicago Cubs, Kenley Jansen of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Mark Melancon of the Washington Nationals. All three are elite closers expecting huge paydays for their services.

Expect the Giants to at least check-in with all three, but it’s clear there is a need, and the Giants should be aggressive in their pursuit to secure at least one.

With $220 million dished out during last year’s free agency to lengthen the rotation, and an offense that still headlines Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, and Hunter Pence, the Giants are still built to win now. $46.4 million will be off the books as players depart, only helping the Giants’ financial situation more.

San Francisco will be looking for a closer who has proven ninth-inning results, a high velocity fastball that misses bats, a proven track record in October, and someone who contributes to the amazing clubhouse culture Bruce Bochy and staff have established.

Comparing all three will give an accurate depiction of who could fill the roll best, along with the ability to compare each closers best pitch side by side to get an idea of who is most efficient. The first one we’re going to take a look at is Kenley Jansen.

Oct 22, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers relief pitcher Kenley Jansen (74) throws against the Chicago Cubs during the sixth inning of game six of the 2016 NLCS playoff baseball series at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports

It’s happening all over again, the San Francisco Giants have an opportunity to once again steal a star pitcher away from their bitter rival Dodgers. Signing Kenley Jansen, 29, would create another huge gap for the Dodgers to fill, crippling their ninth-inning success, as he’s dominated the closer’s role for LA since 2011. Jansen may be the most impactful move the Giants can make for a number of reasons.

He dominated 2016, going 3-2, with a 1.83 ERA in 68.2 innings, while striking out 104.

Jansen had the highest WAR(3.2), lowest HR/FB(5.6), lowest WHIP(0.67), and his 104 strikeouts were tops among the available free agent options.

Aside from the lure of acquiring Jansen and weakening the Dodgers, Jansen’s signing would be extremely beneficial. He simply doesn’t give up runs when opponents reach base.

He leads available options with a LOB% of 85.3 percent, showing he can buckle down when pressure starts to mount. That led to 47 saves converted in the regular season. His fastball averaged 94.3 mph and he mixes that with his cutter, which is used 89.7 percent of the time on pitches thrown.

Jansen also has the most effective pitch out of all three options and that would be his fastball. Using PITCHf/x on fangraphs, it shows per 100 pitches thrown the average runs saved by a particular pitch thrown. Zero is registered as an average score, and statistics can be positive or negative, the higher being better.

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Jansen’s fastball registered a wFA/C of 3.68 per 100 pitches thrown, which is well above average, and more than a full run saved higher than Chapman’s 104 mph fastball, or Melancon.

The 29-year-old proved this October that he is primed for the big stage as well. Showing extreme durability, he threw 11.2 innings, while converting all three save attempts, and posting a 3.21 ERA.

Dave Roberts relied on Jansen heavily in October to protect leads or secure ties, and he was rewarded for his trust. Jansen surpassed one-inning of work during five of his seven appearances, allowing zero runs in all of those outings, while striking out 17. His longest outing was three-innings during game six of the NLCS, where he struck out four and allowed zero hits.

Those are the type of outings San Francisco Giants’ manager Bruce Bochy would love to see again during the regular season, and especially the postseason. With ample opportunity to strengthen the club, and weaken a divisional opponent, expect the Giants to make a strong push for Jansen.

Could the club make a stronger push for the most feared closer in the game?

Nov 2, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Chicago Cubs relief pitcher Aroldis Chapman throws a pitch against the Cleveland Indians in the 8th inning in game seven of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

If the San Francisco Giants simply want a flame-thrower who misses bats the most feared closer in the game is set to hit the open market. Aroldis Chapman, 27, barely needs introduction, but his numbers will serve as a reminder in case the world forgot.

He dominated the NL and AL pitching to the tune of a 4-1 record, with a 1.55 ERA in 58 innings pitched, converting 36/39 saves, while striking out 90 and posting a solid 0.83 WHIP.

Beside the fact that Chapman throws 104 mph fastballs, he mixes in a slider and changeup extremely well to keep hitters off balance.

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That assortment of pitches contributes to chapman posting the highest K/9 (13.97), matching Melancon for the highest percentage of saves converted (92%), and the lowest ERA (1.55) amongst his free agent competitors.

His best pitch according to PITCHf/x is his fastball, which averaged 100.4 mph this season, and was used 81.1 percent of pitches thrown. Chapman posted a wFA/C of 2.51 runs saved per 100 pitches thrown, well above average.

However, there are questions about Chapman’s character, spurring from domestic violence charges, which may concern the Giants as they imagine how he’d fit into the culture of their club.

The San Francisco Giants’ culture also involves winning in October, and Chapman has shown out of all available free agent options, he knows how to do it better than his competition, leading the Cubs to a World Series championship.

Chapman posted a 3.55 ERA in 15.2 innings pitched this postseason, while racking up 21 strikeouts. Like Jansen, Chapman was asked to pitch multiple outings of more than one-inning by his manager. Five of his 13 outings were more than an inning, four of which came in the World Series. His longest outing was 2.2 innings during a game five World Series victory, where he struck out four while allowing just one hit.

Chapman is clearly the biggest prize on the free agent reliever market and his price won’t come cheap. He may break the record for a contract inked by a reliever and this may result in the Giants looking at the latter two.

Furthermore, look for the Giants to do more than just check-in with Chapman once, since this time prospects aren’t tied to progression of a deal. The San Francisco Giants will also check in with another closer that they were close to acquiring at the deadline.

Oct 7, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals relief pitcher Mark Melancon (43) pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the ninth inning during game one of the 2016 NLDS playoff baseball series at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Bobby Evans admitted to Jon Heyman that he kicks himself daily for failing to acquire one of the elite closers at the trade deadline. Mostly over the failed attempt at the only reliever that almost came to fruition, Mark Melancon. Not only does free agency offer Evans a second chance to redeem himself, but also to also salvage a deal with the closer he was reportedly in competitive reach of acquiring.

Mark Melancon, 31, is likely to be the cheapest alternative of all three closers, and looks to be the type of deal the San Francisco Giants typically pursue in the past anyway. They’re rarely involved in bidding wars, so this deal could make sense if they find the other two options to be too expensive.

His price difference isn’t for lack of production, as his numbers are startling and provide evidence of why he was highly coveted at the deadline.

Melancon dazzled posting a record of 2-2, accompanied by a 1.64 ERA, converting 47/51 saves, while striking out 65 in 71.1 innings pitched. Additionally, he held opponents to a minuscule .202 average, with a 0.9 WHIP.

He led his free-agent competitors in categories that should excite the Giants’ fans and brass. San Francisco Giants are known for superior infield defense, headlined by Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik, and Brandon Belt. All of them have at least been finalists for Gold Glove, with Crawford winning in 2015.

Melancon induced a GB% of 54.2 percent, and that’s all a pitcher could want when pitching to contact and having an infield full of wizards as back up. He also has the lowest HR/9 (.30) out of his two competitors, posted the lowest BB/9 (1.51), and shares the highest save conversion percentage with Chapman (92%).

Aside from pitching to contact better, Melancon keeps hitters guessing every offering by throwing four pitches for strikes at any time: fastball, cutter, knuckle curve, and a changeup.

A one-inning assortment of pitches Melancon possesses contributes to his overall success, and his fastball, knuckle curve, and cutter all save runs well above average.

His most effective pitch is a unique knuckle curve, which averages 81.1 mph and was thrown 25.9 percent of the time. PITCHf/x shows that his knuckle curve holds a wKC/C of 2.22 runs saved every 100 times he throws it, well above average.