Rangers overlook Jacob deGrom’s injury risk in favor of generational talent

With one stunning move, Jacob deGrom is no longer a Met.

His run in the Mets organization featured two Cy Young awards, five postseason starts including one World Series outing, four All-Star nods, one Rookie of the Year award, no rings — and a whole lot of love from Mets faithful. The right-hander was placed on a lofty pedestal in Queens, where he pitched since his major-league debut in 2014.

Beginning next season, Mets fans will see their once-beloved ace pitch for the Texas Rangers. DeGrom will join a rotation that includes Jon Gray, Martin Perez and Jake Odorizzi. The Rangers' five-year deal for deGrom, which was announced on Friday night and reported to be worth $185 million, made good on their promise to prioritize pitching this offseason.

"We are thrilled that Jacob deGrom has decided to become a Texas Ranger," said Rangers executive vice president and general manager Chris Young. "One of our primary goals this offseason is to strengthen our starting pitching, and we are adding one of the best."

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When deGrom entered free agency this offseason — by exercising the player option in his contract — there were those who were skeptical about his departure from the Mets and there were those who had seen the writing on the wall. When deGrom first announced, back in March, that he would opt-out of a guaranteed $32.5 million in 2023, it was clear he wanted a bigger contract from any team that was willing to bite. When asked again in October, after the Mets' season ended, whether he believes he will return to the organization, deGrom responded: "I have no clue."

His new deal, with an annual average value of $37 million, makes deGrom the second-highest paid pitcher in Major League Baseball, second only to Max Scherzer. But deGrom's departure from the Steve Cohen-owned Mets isn't about the annual money. This contract is about the number of years the Rangers were willing to tack on, and in doing so, the injury risks they were willing to overlook for an elite right-handed starter on the precipice of his age-35 season.

The Mets? Let's just say they knew better than to extend a risky five-year offer. They had to draw the line in the negotiations somewhere, and it came down to deGrom's durability.

When healthy, deGrom is widely considered the best pitcher of his generation. His decorated career and chills-inducing triple-digit fastballs tell us that. But an influx of injuries, including both minor bumps and bruises and major maladies, are a significant reason why deGrom hasn't pitched a full season since 2019. DeGrom will enter next season having logged just 156 innings between 2021-22.

In that time, he sustained a partial UCL tear of his right elbow that did not require surgery, but ended his season in July ‘21. Earlier this year, deGrom returned to spring training looking stronger and healthier than ever. It didn't last long. In a matter of weeks he sustained a stress fracture in his right scapula that kept him off the mound for the majority of the ‘22 season. He made his season debut hours after the Aug. 2 trade deadline and finished the year with a 3.08 ERA and 102 strikeouts across 64.1 innings and 11 starts.

DeGrom has steadily increased his velocity since his 2018 Cy Young season. As recently as this year, the 34-year-old wondered aloud whether that velocity increase was among the reasons, if not the only reason, for his growing number of injuries. When he returned to the mound this year, he still hit 102 mph on the radar gun, but he and Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner placed added attention on dialing it back.

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It will be interesting, going forward, how deGrom manages his astonishing ability to increase his fastball velocity with age. Over the past few years, that particular part of his game has seemed unsustainable. And it very well may lead to more injuries.

Fangraphs' ZiPS projection system has deGrom projected to throw only around 550 innings throughout his five-year deal with the Rangers, or around 110 innings per season, with the potential for injuries factored into that forecast. But throughout the deal, he is still expected to put up elite numbers.

For those wondering why the Rangers were willing to overlook deGrom's injury risk, look no further than the talent he showcases when he is healthy enough to step on the mound. Even as he pushes toward age 40, ZiPS projects deGrom as the ERA+ leader for starting pitchers each year of the next five (minimum of 75 innings pitched). Texas is banking on deGrom's otherworldly talent, even if he is unable to show up every five days, to net the club its first championship in franchise history.

Give the Rangers credit for signing another superstar, doubling down on their commitment to go all the way just one year after spending over half a billion dollars on Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Gray. Acquiring deGrom is quite the encore. And even that colossal splash doesn't mean they're done yet.

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Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.