Pujols might command $35M a year

As you've no doubt heard, Jayson Werth will soon be doing snow angels in piles of cash.

Werth's contract will run longer and pay him more money than anyone — even Scott Boras — thought possible. It's the surest sign yet that last winter's “market correction” for player salaries is over and done with. And who's happiest about Werth's staggering deal (besides Werth and his handlers, of course)?

Some might say Albert Pujols.

Pujols, of course, is entering the final year of his eight-year, $111-million contract, and talks with the Cardinals are already underway. Regardless of who winds up signing Pujols's checks, he'll probably fetch the biggest contract in baseball history*.

(* Non-A-Rod division.)

That's especially the case now that Ryan Howard set the going rates at $25 million per (seriously, as bad as Werth's contract seems, Howard's is “orders of magnitude” more inexplicable) and Werth checked in at seven years. Yet another shoe might drop when Adrian Gonzalez presumably signs an extension with the Red Sox. Given Gonzalez's age and value and given Boston's substantial resources, a contract in excess of $150 million seems likely. And that brings us back to Pujols.

Pujols is the best hitter in the game today, and almost no player in history can match his production through age 30. Pujols is also drastically underpaid. On the market, he'd be worth something like $35 million per, and his next contract will probably pay him something close to that. In fact, a deal that pays him $30 million a year is probably toward the low end of reasonable expectations.

The question, then, is how long? Pujols will be 31 before Opening Day and, barring an extension with the Cardinals, 32 before be plays the first game under his next contract. In other words, he'll be about Werth's age.

Needless to say, Pujols's next team would prefer not to shell out, say, $225 million over seven years. That's a lot to pay for a first baseman's decline phase, even if that first baseman is Albert Pujols. Locking up a player for big money until his late 30s — even a future first-ballot Hall of Famer like Pujols; even a player who figures to age well, as the lean, fit and fleet Werth does — is a highly risky proposition. But the market so often demands it.

Still, two factors might be working against the notion that Pujols will net a contract that portends the decline of Western civilization. First, the Nationals — because they are the Nationals and, ergo, not poised to contend right away — had to overshoot market valuations for Werth.

When you can't promise the level of team success to which Werth is accustomed, you have to make up for it with other enticements. "Other enticements," thy name is money. The Cardinals, for instance and in contrast, can promise yearly relevance when it comes to the standings.

Perhaps more important is that Pujols will be facing a somewhat limited market for his services. That's because, first, a limited number of teams are willing to pay the going rates, and, second, quite a few high-revenue clubs are set at first base for the foreseeable future.

The Red Sox, as mentioned, just acquired Adrian Gonzalez and will soon sign him to a lengthy extension. The Yankees are committed to Mark Teixeira through 2016, the White Sox appear likely to re-sign Paul Konerko, and the Phillies, of course, have Howard.

The Cubs? After the Carlos Zambrano and Alfonso Soriano boondoggles, they might be reluctant to hand out such a contract.

The Mets? Unless the Wilpon's personal fortune recovers from being "Madoffed," then they likely won't be players.

As well, if Prince Fielder is traded this offseason, then that's another potential suitor off the board.

At present, that leaves (barring a surprise) the Angels and maybe (maybe?) the Dodgers as teams who both need and can afford a player like Pujols.

That's not to say there won't be a surprise contender — after all, in some instances you do what you must do to get a player like Pujols — but the market for his services seems thinner than you might think.

Even post-Werth, though, Pujols seems a strong bet to return to St. Louis. The Cards are perennial contenders, they have the resources to pay him, and Pujols has all but achieved sainthood among the team's fans.

It's going to cost the Cardinals a lot of money per year (thanks in part to the Phillies and Ryan Howard), and it's going to run for too long (thanks in part to the Nationals and Jayson Werth), but it's likely to get done.

Though it's easy to imagine Pujols commanding a contract that surpasses the extremities of the imagination, that won't happen (unless you have a severely limited imagination, that is). That's because no negotiation exists in a vacuum.

Let's remember that before everyone assumes that Werth's freshly minted deal CHANGES EVERYTHING when it comes to the future of Albert Pujols.