Postseason: Konerko vs Beltran/Upton Home Run Decimal Sabermetrics

Sep 28, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko (14) waves to fans in the stands after the game against the Kansas City Royals at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

Now that I wrote two articles comparing players head-to-head in Home Run Decimal, it is time to attempt a three-way analysis. Since the postseason is right around the corner, I thought it would make sense to analyze three different playoff performances from the past.

Considering the fact that the Chicago White Sox won the World Series in 2005, they have a representative in this study (from that season). There is no better representative than their best and most popular player of the last decade, Paul Konerko to apply the study to. Now, there are still two more players needed. Who will they be?

Since the Sox are one of the teams, I thought I would tie the Sox and postseason opponents into it. This it how it will be done: Since the last team the Sox beat in the playoffs were the Houston Astros (World Series 2005 sweep-HOU is now in the American League) and their final playoff appearance was in 2008 versus the Tampa Bay Rays (lost 3-1 in ALDS), the other two players will come from these teams.

Both players outside of Konerko have one thing in common outside of having great ability, that being the fact they are outfielders. For the Astros, I am going to take the 2004 postseason of Carlos Beltran, and from the Rays I will be using the 2008 performance from B.J. Upton (who now goes by Melvin Upton Jr.). Even though I won’t be using the 2005 Astros, I am going to use the same organization just a different year. On top of that, I will be using the entire postseason, not just the series versus the Sox for Upton.

You will see the results from Home Run Decimal (HRD) and Decimal Power Average (DPA) in this study.

Sep 2, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers right fielder Carlos Beltran (36) prepares to swing as a pitch is delived at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Sean Pokorny-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Beltran Postseason 2004

10/6 (NLDS Game 1): @ Atlanta Braves: W 9-3, HRD: 0.7204

10/9 (NLDS Game 3): vs Atlanta Braves: W 8-5, HRD: 1.1302

10/11 (NLDS Game 5): @ Atlanta Braves: W 12-3, HRD: 0.6808

10/11 (NLDS Game 5): @ Atlanta Braves: W 12-3, HRD: 0.6889

10/13 (NLCS Game 1): @ St. Louis Cardinals: L 10-7, HRD: 1.1302

10/14 (NLCS Game 2): @ St. Louis Cardinals: L 6-4, HRD: 0.7993

10/16 (NLCS Game 3): vs St. Louis Cardinals: W 5-2, HRD: 0.8063

10/17 (NLCS Game 4): vs St. Louis Cardinals: W 6-5, HRD: 0.8280

For the entire postseason of 2004, Carlos Beltran had a HRD of 6.7841. While that is a strong HRD for only twelve games, it isn’t going to produce a very good DPA. That came in at 0.8480, meaning each Beltran home run is well below one in this formula.

Beltran’s 2004 Postseason was phenomenal, as he homered in five straight games, not to mention hit six home runs in those five games. The Astros played well in games where Beltran left the yard, as they went 5-2 in those such games. Unfortunately for Houston, they fell in seven games to the Cardinals in the National League Championship Series. On the flip side, that offseason Beltran signed a 7-year, $119 million deal with the Mets.

May 23, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; The number of Paul Konerko is unveiled on a wall during the day that his number was retired at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

The study continues next with Paul Konerko

Paul Konerko Postseason 2005

10/4 (ALDS Game 1): vs Boston Red Sox: W 14-2, HRD: 0.7148

10/7 (ALDS Game 3): @ Boston Red Sox: W 5-3, HRD: 1.4752

10/14 (ALCS Game 3) @ Los Angeles Angels: W 5-2, HRD: 1.2643

10/15 (ALCS Game 4) @ Los Angeles Angels: W 8-2, HRD: 1.2643

10/23 (WS Game 2) vs Houston Astros: W 7-6, HRD: 2.2589

Konerko had a very good HRD total of 6.9775 (better than Beltran with less home runs-5 to 8), for the 2005 Postseason, not to mention an outstanding DPA (1.3955). Just for comparisons sake, it (Konerko’s DPA) is over half a home run (0.5475 to be exact) more than Beltran’s, meaning that in this formula Konerko’s home runs were much more valuable.

I am starting to catch a trend in these studies, which I will explain later. The White Sox were perfect in games that Konerko homered in that postseason (5-0), however they only lost one game in their quest to win the World Championship. While Konerko won his first and only title that season, his wallet got heavier in the offseason when he resigned with the White Sox by inking a 5-year, $60 million contract.

Aug 9, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays left fielder Melvin Upton Jr. (7) hits an RBI sacrifice fly ball during the fifth inning in a game against the Tampa Bay Rayss at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

On to the last member of the study, that being B.J. Upton (now Melvin Upton Jr.)

B.J. Upton Postseason 2008

10/5 (ALDS Game 3): @ Chicago White Sox: L 5-3: 0.9509

10/6 (ALDS Game 4): @ Chicago White Sox: W 6-2: 0.6808

10/6 (ALDS Game 4): @ Chicago White Sox: W 6-2: 0.6889

10/11 (ALCS Game 2) vs Boston Red Sox: W 9-8: 0.6808

10/13 (ALCS Game 3) @ Boston Red Sox: W 9-1: 0.9393

10/16 (ALCS Game 5) @ Boston Red Sox: L 8-7: 1.1302

10/18 (ALCS Game 6) vs Boston Red Sox: L 4-2: 0.6808

Of the three in the study, Upton had the worst HRD at 5.7517. He also brought up the rear in regards to DPA, with a score of 0.8217. Here are some reasons for that: All but one of Upton’s homers were hit in the third inning or earlier, which hurt his score. Another negative for Upton would be his protection, who was Carlos Pena every time, and he had a WAR above 3.0 in 2008.

In that case, he is deemed to be good protection, harming his score in this formula (more to be explained later). The Rays as a team didn’t play as well as the White Sox and Astros, considering the fact that they only went 3-3 in the games that Upton went deep. Speaking of the Rays, they won the American League Pennant, however lost to the Philadelphia Phillies 4-1 in the World Series. Upton didn’t hit a single home run in that series.

Sep 21, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers right fielder Carlos Beltran (36) celebrates with teammates after hitting a two run home run during the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Just by looking at this study, not to mention the previous two, there is a trend developing. I am talking about what I deem as the most important in the study. There is an order of importance developing, in regards to what aids/impairs the formula. Here it is:

1.Protection

2.Score of Game

3.Inning

While these three may not be all good or bad in each case, it helps to have as many in your favor as possible. Upton and Beltran did not, as they had good protection (Beltran had Bagwell in ’04). Good protection helps as a hitter, meaning they would be hurt in the formula. Konerko did not, as Carl Everett was hitting behind him (had a negative WAR in 2005), which meant he would have the worst time getting a pitch to hit. Also, Konerko hit a grand slam with the bases loaded and two out in the seventh inning, which really jacked up his score for one of his home runs. Keep in mind this formula is going to have a lot of volatility to it, considering the amount of home runs hit by each player.

To wrap things up, the actual value of the formula is starting to come into focus a bit. While I think I could add value to a walk off home run, that needs to be added to the formula later. Since this was a shorter study in terms of opportunity for home runs, there is going to be a lot of volatility in it. Therefore it is not going to be perfect, but still worthwhile nonetheless. Something else to look at is valuing the postseason differently, but that is down the road as well. This will fluctuate over time, so enjoy them as they come. Stay tuned for more.