Playoff power rankings: Astros, Brewers, Giants best suited to rule October
By Pedro Moura
FOX Sports MLB Writer
With five days to play in the 2021 regular season, the postseason picture is not quite set.
Four American League teams are still in the mix for two wild-card spots. While we wait to see who emerges, let’s take a look at all the playoff contenders, listed from worst to best in terms of their likelihood to advance in the postseason.
Postseason baseball is a different animal than regular-season baseball. As such, this is not a traditional power rankings but a playoff power ranking, taking into account each team's playoff position and attempting to predict what matters most in the postseason.
That means likely wild-card teams are downgraded — but not necessarily all the way to the bottom of the pack. And with apologies to the Athletics, the Reds and especially the Phillies, it includes only teams that would not require outrageous turns of events to qualify.
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12. New York Yankees
The Yankees are something akin to the inverse of the San Francisco Giants. Many of New York's key veterans have regressed or disappointed this season, while some of the team's biggest successes have come out of nowhere.
No one expected left-handed reliever Lucas Luetge, who had been out of the big leagues for six years, to match DJ LeMahieu’s value to the team. But he has. Stout journeyman left-hander Nestor Cortes Jr., who owned a 6.72 ERA entering this season, has probably been the second-best pitcher on staff somehow.
The pieces are still here for a playoff run, and Giancarlo Stanton is on a career-best tear, but it would certainly be easier to expect October success if the star players had performed better throughout the season.
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11. Seattle Mariners
There’s some mystical element to what the Mariners have accomplished, especially of late but really all season. It has just been such a strange year. If we said in March that Seattle would be 87-70 with five games to play, you’d have to think top prospects Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert would be fueling their run. But Kelenic has been awful, and Gilbert has been just OK.
It seems the bullpen of outcasts — chiefly Casey Sadler, Paul Sewald and Drew Steckenrider — is the team's biggest strength. How much of a force would the M's be in a postseason series? Not much, rival evaluators say. There’s still not as much to fear here as there is with some peers.
They Blue Jays boast a fearsome lineup and an intriguing top of the rotation. Outside of George Springer, there’s not a lot of playoff experience here, but there’s plenty of reason to dream about Toronto’s potential. There’s also a pesky wild-card game to play, if the Jays even get in.
Does it mean anything to enter October hot? History says it does not. But the Cardinals have shown in September that they are better than they looked earlier this year, and that counts for something.
There are, however, some issues: They have to win a one-game playoff against either the best or the second-best team in baseball, and their starting rotation is Adam Wainwright, some other old guys and maybe a newly healthy but not yet built up Jack Flaherty.
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The Red Sox have been a .500 team since the end of June, with their COVID-19 outbreak certainly not helping matters. But their first-half success should not be entirely discounted, and there is enough to dream on here: Chris Sale is back and doing well. Nathan Eovaldi has been great. Young pitchers Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock are getting results. There is a lot of strikeout stuff in Boston's bullpen, from closer Matt Barnes to converted starter Garrett Richards and on down.
The lineup is solid, if a little weak near the bottom. If the Red Sox can advance past the wild-card game, there’s no reason they can’t advance past the Rays, whom they played almost evenly this season.
Alex Anthopoulos did an admirable job reworking this roster in July, and the fruits of his labor are present more days than not as the Braves approach the playoffs. Outfielder Jorge Soler was available for little at the deadline. The likes of the Padres and Phillies opted against acquiring him, and he has helped sink their postseason chances, including with a decisive two-run single against Philadelphia on Tuesday in Atlanta.
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That said, the Braves are still a flawed squad lacking the superstar they had at season’s start (Ronald Acuna Jr.) and the one they hoped to have by season’s end (Mike Soroka). And spoiler alert: To get to the World Series, they would likely have to get past three of the top four teams on this list.
The White Sox are kind of like the Red Sox, except in a much easier division. Their record is buoyed by an excellent start to the season. They, too, have been mediocre of late. If Carlos Rodón’s arm were in better health, it would be easier to project a lengthy run for the White Sox. But that does not appear to be the case, and there are some questions about the rest of the rotation as well.
As a result, the real question might be: How far can Luis Robert take this team? He has been great. The answer might be: fairly far. It also might be as far as the ALDS against the Astros.
5. Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays’ problem a year ago was that their depth got them to the World Series, but they lacked the stars to thrive against the best of the best once they got there.
Why could things be different this year? Well, they’re still more of a deep squad than a top-heavy one. The 13 position players who’ve batted the most for Tampa have all been average or better. But the Rays have also introduced a few potentially dominant contributors over the past few months. Wunderkind shortstop Wander Franco, for one, has been elite since his June arrival, and right-hander Shane Baz, just up from Triple-A, might be a force, too.
Don’t forget that Tampa Bay also acquired Nelson Cruz two months back. He hasn’t hit particularly well since he moved from Minnesota, but he’ll continue to be a threat in the middle of Tampa's order.
If the Dodgers make it through to the divisional round, they would vault to the clear favorites to win it all. But because there’s a significant chance that they must win a wild-card game to get there and because this is baseball, there’s a significant chance that they will lose that game. And so, they are fourth on this list.
If you’re looking for areas of concern, maybe there are some within the Dodgers’ lineup. Mookie Betts, Max Muncy and Justin Turner have all been mediocre in September. Of course, while that has happened, Corey Seager, Trea Turner and Gavin Lux have surged.
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The Dodgers have so many top talents that it's virtually guaranteed for some of them to be in form during any series longer than a game. They have so much pitching talent, too, that Clayton Kershaw might be the fourth starter in a postseason series — if they get there, of course.
3. San Francisco Giants
Literally every San Francisco position player except backup catcher Curt Casali has hit well in September — and essentially all season. The Giants have sustained rare levels of playing to their peak since Opening Day, and that has carried them to this point, ahead of a generational juggernaut. Since April, we have expected this run to end. Obviously, it hasn’t. Why would it now? Grizzled veterans Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Buster Posey have all demonstrated that they are better than we thought.
But most talent evaluators would still rather pick three of the Dodgers' or Astros’ best position players than the Giants’ crew — and that was before Belt fractured a finger when he was hit by a pitch. He'll now miss at least some postseason play. That won't help. It’s rather difficult to place this team, baseball’s best this year but one that could still be relegated to wild-card position.
Two of the sport’s three best pitchers by ERA reside in this rotation, and another elite arm, Freddy Peralta, isn’t far behind. A bet on the Brewers is a bet on Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes to remain dominant for another month, which seems like a safe one.
Behind those pitchers, in the bullpen, it gets really interesting. By ERA, the Giants and Dodgers have the sport’s two best bullpens. The Brewers rank eighth, close to a run worse per nine innings than those two peers. But many in the industry, in a seven-game series, would prefer the Brewers’ relief options.
It’s a matter of dominance versus depth. The Brewers’ bullpen leads baseball in strikeout rate. This season, their relievers have been about 27% more likely to strike out opposing hitters than the Giants’ pen. That’s valuable when big outs are necessary with runners on base.
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1. Houston Astros
How will any team avoid ceding runs to this offense? It’s not clear, but maybe the recent weekend series against Oakland can give us an idea. After a week of exploding against inferior pitching, the Astros amassed only six runs in three games at the spacious Coliseum.
The ranking here is based on the premise that that probably won’t happen again. Consider what happened when the Astros returned home to face the Rays on Tuesday: They waited out Tampa Bay’s relievers and drew walks to force in the tying and winning runs.
But if the Houston offense isn’t near its best, this positioning will probably look foolish. The Astros don’t have the dominant starting pitching to carry the roster for a month. Even so, they might have the creativity to traverse 100 to 150 October innings with their deep staff.
Pedro Moura is the national baseball writer for FOX Sports. He most recently covered the Dodgers for three seasons for The Athletic. Previously, he spent five years covering the Angels and Dodgers for the Orange County Register and Los Angeles Times. More previously, he covered his alma mater, USC, for ESPNLosAngeles.com. The son of Brazilian immigrants, he grew up in the Southern California suburbs. Follow him on Twitter @pedromoura.