Pittsburgh Pirates to Emphasize Run Prevention in 2017
After a disappointing season that saw them win 20 fewer games than the year before, the Pittsburgh Pirates are focusing on run prevention in 2017.
The 2016 Pittsburgh Pirates missed the postseason for the first time since 2012. The main culprit for their substandard season was an increase in runs allowed. In 2015, the Pirates allowed 596 runs, third-fewest in baseball. In 2016, they allowed 758 runs, 22nd in baseball, and an increase of one run per game. Only three teams saw a greater increase in runs allowed from 2015 to 2016 (Twins, Cardinals, and Diamondbacks).
The natural area to improve on in regard to run prevention would be to improve your pitching staff, but that could be difficult this offseason. The free agent pitching market is thin. Rich Hill had a good year, and is a free agent, but he only pitched 110 1/3 innings. He’s been in the big leagues since 2005 and has had only one season with more than 150 innings pitched and that was back in 2007. Despite being a big injury risk, Hill will likely cost more than the Pirates will be willing to spend.
Unlike last offseason, there are no pitchers the caliber of Zack Greinke, David Price, or Johnny Cueto available this year. Some of the better pitchers on the market include Bartolo Colon, Jeremy Hellickson, and Ivan Nova, and they will likely come at a price that makes them questionable signings. The Pirates would like to retain Ivan Nova after his good stretch run with the team, but he will almost surely get a better offer elsewhere.
The average starting pitcher signed before this season cost over $10 million per year, up 21.6% from the previous offseason. Pirates’ general manager Neil Huntington expects it to be worse this year. Part of the problem is that more teams are identifying the same players who may have been undervalued at one time, so competition is getting fierce. According to this article at Trib Live, Huntington said, “It’s absolutely become more competitive, more challenging. When more teams evaluate the way you do the prices get driven up and resources become the advantage again. We continue to work to find ways to stay ahead of the curve.”
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Last year, the Pirates were in the running for Rich Hill and J.A. Happ, but they didn’t pony up enough money and both pitchers signed with other teams. Both had good seasons, with Hill winning 12 games with a 2.12 ERA and Happ winning 20 with a 3.18 ERA. The Pirates would like to develop their own starting pitchers because it’s much more cost effective, but it should be noted that their three recent playoff teams all had at least two effective veteran starters. The Pirates’ starting rotation right now looks like Gerrit Cole and a number of youthful question marks.
The defense part of the equation will also come into play. The Pirates have focused on ground-ball pitchers in recent years, but shifted away from that trend last offseason. They signed Ryan Vogelsong, Juan Nicasio, and Neftali Feliz, all of whom are fly-ball pitchers. Vogelsong was awful. Feliz was good. Nicasio was a mix of both; bad as a starting pitcher but effective in relief. Pirates’ manager Clint Hurdle expects the team to continue to emphasize the ground ball, saying it’s “something that we’re going to keep as one of our cornerstones. We’ve had a recipe for success and we want to follow it.”
Huntington also intends to continue to value ground-ball pitchers, but knows the reality of the market. He said, “We are a copy-cat industry. Ground ball pitchers have become more valued. We could be stubborn and stay the course and pay more than we ideally like. Or we can look in a different direction and find value in a different way. It comes back to what may be successful for five years will probably not be for 10. There is a constant ebb and flow.”
One of the glaring issues with last year’s defense was Andrew McCutchen’s performance in center field. The metrics indicate that McCutchen had -28 Defensive Runs Saved, the worst of any fielder in baseball. This suggests that McCutchen’s defense cost the Pirates nearly three wins in the standings. Part of the problem was likely positioning. The Pirates had McCutchen play very shallow in center field, based on analytics from the 2015 season, but it didn’t appear to work out so well with the 2016 pitching staff. Hurdle said, “As this staff played out it didn’t match up to the same analytics off the mound (from 2015) that we were looking to (regarding) defense. We have some thoughts moving forward on how to adjust.”
Pirates’ fans can be assured that Huntington and the rest of the front office will do whatever they can to get the Bucs back to the postseason. They have young pitching to develop, they’ll look at the free agent market, and they’ll consider all options to improve the team for the future, which could include trading McCutchen, who has one guaranteed year and a team option on his contract.