Pittsburgh Pirates 2017 preview

This is the latest of our 2017 team previews. Each week during spring training, we’ll preview a division with a team each day (Monday-Friday). This week: The NL Central: Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals. Up next: Milwaukee Brewers

LAST SEASON

78-83 (third in NL Central)

WHAT’S NEW

Key additions: RP Daniel Hudson (free agent from Diamondbacks), INF Phil Gosselin (trade with Diamondbacks)

 Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Key subtractions: INF Sean Rodriguez (free agent to Braves), OF Matt Joyce (free agent to Athletics), RP Neftali Feliz (free agent to Brewers), SP Ryan Vogelsong (free agent to Twins), SP Jeff Locke (free agent to Marlins)

3 STRIKES

 Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

1. Andrew McCutchen needs to get back to All-Star form. The former NL MVP, who is coming off the worst season of his career, found himself in the middle of trade discussions this offseason. The Nationals and White Sox were reportedly in the mix, but the Pirates couldn’t come to terms with either on what the proper value would be. Now 30 years old, McCutchen’s defensive liabilities have forced the team to move him from center to right field for the 2017 season. With 21-year-old outfield prospect Austin Meadows waiting in the wings, an early season return to form for McCutchen could boost the Pirates’ fortunes on the field or in getting them a better return in a potential midseason trade.

 Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

2. The bullpen must re-establish itself as a strength. From 2013 to 2015, the Pirates’ relievers had the highest win probability added of any bullpen in the majors. It’s no coincidence that they earned an NL wild-card spot each of those seasons. After trading reliable closer Mark Melancon to the Nationals in July, former setup man Tony Watson’s transition into the ninth inning role wasn’t as seamless as hoped, compiling a 3.86 ERA and three blown saves in the final two months. The Pirates need Watson to improve his consistency as a closer and will look for Felipe Rivero – the main piece in the Melancon deal – to establish himself in the setup role. They lost some bullpen depth with the departure of Neftali Feliz, but are hoping that newly signed Daniel Hudson can replace him by becoming the latest of pitching coach Ray Searage’s reclamation projects.

  Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

3. The Pirates need to solidify the back of their rotation. The first three starting pitchers are set with ace Gerrit Cole, second-year stud Jameson Taillon and veteran Ivan Nova, who returned to the team with a three-year free agent deal this offseason. The big question is who fills the fourth and fifth starter roles, as the team would love to be more consistent than 2016, when it used a total of 14 starting pitchers. Youngsters Tyler Glasnow, Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault and Trevor Williams will all get the opportunity to claim those spots in camp, as will veteran Drew Hutchison, who was acquired in the Francisco Liriano trade last season.

BEST-CASE SCENARIO

Andrew McCutchen returns to MVP form, Gerrit Cole finally becomes the Cy Young contender the team expects him to be and the team’s young potential stars (Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell) all elevate their game to another level while the back of the rotation and bullpen prove far more reliable than in 2016.

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports 

WORST-CASE SCENARIO

McCutchen regresses even further and injuries to key players like Cole, Josh Harrison and Jung Ho Kang (who is also facing separate legal troubles) prove to be problematic for another year.

SURPRISING STAT

Pirates starting pitchers compiled a 4.67 ERA in 2016, jumping from 3.53 in 2015.

BEST BETS

Projected win total (via Atlantis Casino Resort): 85.5

World Series odds (via Vegas Insider): 70/1

TOP FIVE FANTASY PLAYERS

1. Starling Marte, OF: In a perfect world, fantasy owners should expect 15-20 homers, 30+ stolen bases and a .290 batting average from Marte this season. However, the Pirates and their offense are far from perfect.

2. Andrew McCutchen, OF: Cutch was a top three fantasy baseball player just a few seasons ago. This draft season, his average draft position fell outside the top five rounds. However, his bat and confidence rallied somewhat during the second half of 2016 (first half: .247 BA/.319 OBP; second half: .267 BA/.358 OBP).

3. Gregory Polanco, OF: He’s not hitting the .300 batting average threshold many fantasy prospectors expected, but 20 homers and 20 stolen bases per season can smooth things over.

4. Jung Ho Kang, 3B: Continues to show great power – 36 homers in 229 games – but it would be comforting for him to reach 140+ games in a season.

5. Gerrit Cole, SP: The Pirates’ ace endured a bumpy 2016 season in which he finished 7-10 in only 21 starts due to multiple DL stints. On top of that, some advanced metrics indicate he was a little unlucky last year (.345 BABIP)

(Courtesy of the FOX Sports Fantasy Baseball)

PREDICTION

Third place in the NL Central for a second consecutive year