Phillies Pitcher Aaron Nola Should Adopt His Curve as His Primary Pitch
Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs made an interesting case for Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola to use his curveball as his primary pitch.
When the Phillies drafted Aaron Nola back in 2014, it was his ability to locate his pitches – especially his curveball – that made him worthy of a first-round selection. That ability helped Nola reach the major-leagues just one year after being drafted.
Nola employed his curve quite a lot in 2016 and it was effective. He threw it 33.8% of the time, tied with Jose Fernandez for second among all pitchers with 100 or more innings. Nola’s curve was worth 9.3 runs above average, fifth-highest in the majors. It also had the most horizontal movement of any pitcher’s curveball according to Pitch f/X. Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs said, “Nola’s curveball is one of the best of its type at generating swings and misses, ground balls and pitches taken as strikes.”
Eno Sarris of Fangraphs ranked Nola’s curve as the fourth-best among all starters, trailing behind only Corey Kluber, Fernandez, and Jon Lester. That’s some good company to be in.
Despite Nola’s curveball being easily his best pitch, he used one of his two fastballs primarily last year. In 2016, Nola threw either his four or two-season fastball 57% of the time, but that combination was worth -5.5 runs, ranking 110th out of 142 pitchers with 100 or more innings. His four-seam fastball has below-average velocity, averaging 90.3 mph. Overall, Sawchik described both of Nola’s fastballs as “solid if unspectacular.”
Considering how effective Nola’s curveball is, Sawchik asked:
“But what if Nola threw the pitch even more? … What if the curveball became not his top secondary pitch – he also throws a changeup on occasion – but his primary pitch? What if he, too, went away from convention?”
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As precedent for Nola making such a radical shift, Sawchik pointed towards the pitcher who led everyone in curveball usage in 2016: Rich Hill. Hill threw his curve 49.7% of the time for him in 2016, and it worked. He finished the year with a 2.12 ERA and 10.52 K/9, prompting the 36-year old to receive a three-year, $48 million contract this offseason.
Sawchik did note that “perhaps the Phillies and Nola believe the curveball places more stress on his valuable right ulnar collateral ligament and shoulder.”
Nola’s 2016 season was cut short by a sprained UCL and elbow strain, prompting him to receive a platelet-rich plasma injection. Nola has said that his elbow is “100 percent”, but shifting to the more strenuous curveball could wind up hampering his return from the injury. That shift may have to wait until later this year or perhaps even next season if injury is a concern.
Nola is already a very good pitcher, as he had a 3.08 FIP and 2.8 fWAR in his 20 starts last season. Hill racked up 3.8 fWAR in 2016, and Nola was on that pace before the injuries derailed that season. It’s very possible that combined with his other pitches and his above-average command, Nola could post even better numbers if he uses the “Rich Hill Approach” as Sawchik called it.