Paul Goldschmidt's 300th home run a milestone in already historic career

By Jordan Shusterman
FOX Sports MLB Writer

We sure do like our big, round numbers in baseball.

Arguably more than any other sport, baseball reveres certain numbers as the best way to compare players’ accomplishments across generations. Statistical milestones are also often cause for celebration and reflection on a player’s career.

That said, I’ll admit that when St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt launched his 300th career home run the Cincinnati Reds on Saturday, one of my first thoughts was, "That’s it? Only 300?"

Make no mistake: 300 home runs in the major leagues is a ton. Goldschmidt is the 153rd player in MLB history to reach that benchmark. Of those, only 101 had 300 homers through their age-34 seasons, which Goldschmidt is in the middle of.

The fact that 300 home runs is fewer than I would’ve expected for Goldschmidt has everything to do with how good he has been. This is a player who has essentially never been hurt — his 1,096 games played since the start of the 2015 season are tops in MLB — and has been in the NL MVP discussion year after year. 

So how does he have "only" 300 home runs a couple of months before his 35th birthday? 

It can be boiled down to three simple facts:

1. He always hits 30-plus, but never 40-plus.

Goldschmidt has five seasons of 30-plus homers to his name and likely will have another this season — but he has never hit more than 36 in a year, so he hasn’t been making enormous strides up the all-time list the way some players, such as Giancarlo Stanton or Nelson Cruz, do with 40- or 50-HR campaigns. 

2. He started late.

If you’re hitting 30-plus homers consistently, surely you’d have more than 300 by now, right? Not so fast. Drafted out of Texas State in 2009, Goldschmidt didn’t make his MLB debut until a month before his 24th birthday.

That’s why a guy such as Justin Upton, who is roughly the same age as Goldschmidt but debuted when he was 19, has 25 more homers than Goldschmidt. With a few exceptions, most of the all-time home run hitters started racking up dingers long before they turned 24. 

3. 2020 happened.

Not only did it hurt to lose 100 games — especially for a player such as Goldschmidt who rarely misses time — but also Goldy hit only six homers in the shortened season. He was still an excellent batter on the whole, but balls weren’t going over the fence nearly as much as you might’ve expected in those 60 games.

Now, while 300 home runs might not be as big a deal as, say, 500 home runs or 3,000 hits, it’s still every bit a reason to take a moment to appreciate Goldschmidt’s career — especially when he’s in the middle of an MVP-type season for the Cardinals. He’s leading the NL in runs and hits, is second in total bases and is top-five in all three triple-slash categories: batting average (.329), on-base percentage (.414) and slugging percentage (.584). He’ll also be the starting first baseman for the NL at the All-Star Game on Tuesday in Los Angeles, marking his seventh trip to the Midsummer Classic. 

What's more, Goldschmidt is currently running the highest OPS+ of his tremendous career, at 186. And while 34 isn’t very old, I was curious how his season stacks up against those of his same-aged peers historically.

Here are the best age-34 seasons in MLB history by OPS+:

1. 1998 Mark McGwire: 216
2. 1908 Honus Wagner: 205
3. 1929 Babe Ruth: 193
4. 1902 Ed Delahanty: 188
5. 2022 Paul Goldschmidt: 186
6. 1965 Willie Mays: 185

Speaking of OPS+, Goldschmidt came into this season with a career OPS+ of 142. His sensational start has upped that mark a couple of points, and he’s now in quite interesting company among active players (min. 3,000 PA): 

1. Mike Trout: 176
2. Joey Votto: 146
3. Miguel Cabrera: 144
4. Paul Goldschmidt: 144
5. Bryce Harper: 144
6. Albert Pujols: 144
7. Giancarlo Stanton: 143
8. Freddie Freeman: 138
9. Alex Bregman: 136
10. Jose Abreu: 135

To be fair, Pujols (162 OPS+), Votto (155 OPS+) and Cabrera (151 OPS+) were all higher on this leader board through their age-34 seasons and have fallen down the list as they’ve aged. But for Goldschmidt to be at the same level as guys such as Harper and Stanton, who seem like sure-fire bets for Cooperstown? That's huge.

Harper and Stanton had the benefit of starting their big-league careers much younger, so they were always going to have an edge in counting stats. They are also far better bets to reach 500 home runs than Goldschmidt, but Goldschmidt’s overall offensive production has been right on par with those two generational talents. 

Another way to measure Goldschmidt’s track record of excellence is award shares, a metric that tracks the percentage of the MVP or Cy Young vote that a player receives in a given season and adds up the "shares" of such awards over the course of a career. Although Goldy has never won MVP, he finished second in 2013 and ‘15 and third in 2017. He also received down-ballot votes in five other seasons, including sixth-place finishes in 2018 and ‘21. 

All those high-end MVP finishes put him at 2.34 MVP award shares, good for 76th all time — even ahead of two-time winners Cal Ripken Jr. and Dale Murphy — and eighth among active players.

And his performance this season tells us that he clearly isn’t finished. This is looking like his best chance to finally capture an MVP award, but even if he doesn’t, another top-five finish looks all but guaranteed, barring injury, and that would only vault Goldschmidt higher on the all-time award shares list.

Overall, if you’re looking for flash, Goldschmidt is never going to be your guy. But that’s OK; baseball has no shortage of electric, young personalities. And as far as reliable, every-day production is concerned, the list of players you’d rather have is awfully short.

Ultimately, the way for Goldschmidt to get more national attention (not that he particularly wants it) the rest of his career is greater postseason success. Besides a lousy showing in the 2019 NLCS against the Nationals — when essentially every Cardinals hitter had a lousy showing — Goldschmidt has been excellent in October when given opportunities. 

Even including his 1-for-16 in that NLCS, he has a career .282/.351/.624 postseason line, with eight home runs in 21 games. That’s a .975 OPS, tied with Nomar Garciaparra for 17th in MLB history among hitters with at least 90 career postseason plate appearances. 

That NLCS appearance is also Goldschmidt’s lone LCS thus far. The Cardinals, seeking a fourth consecutive postseason appearance, remain in striking distance of Milwaukee in the NL Central and firmly in the mix for one of the three NL wild cards. In order for their star first baseman to shine in the national spotlight, they’ll need to advance further than the wild-card round, which they’ve failed to do the past two seasons.

That said, if Goldy keeps playing like this, the Cardinals will have a great shot to make a deep run come October. And regardless of how far St. Louis goes, Goldschmidt has reminded everyone why he’s one of the best players of his generation and deserves to be talked about as such.

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He lives in D.C. but is a huge Seattle Mariners fan and loves watching the KBO, which means he doesn't get a lot of sleep. You can follow him on Twitter at @j_shusterman_.