Offseason questions, free agency loom for Dodgers after shocking NLDS exit

By Rowan Kavner
FOX Sports MLB Writer

Of the seven teams in major-league history to win at least 110 games, three won the World Series, two lost the World Series and one fell in the American League Championship Series.

Then there were this year’s 111-win Dodgers, who departed — shockingly, abruptly, sooner than anyone anticipated — in the National League Division Series.

"When you don’t win the World Series, it doesn’t matter if you win 80 games or 120 games," Freddie Freeman said. "It’s just disappointment."

Back in March, manager Dave Roberts felt so confident in his group that he declared in an appearance on The Dan Patrick Show that the Dodgers would be World Series champions. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman appreciated Roberts’ boldness and belief — even if it wasn’t something he would've said himself. 

"I definitely believed it," Friedman said before the playoffs began. "I just wouldn’t necessarily have said it out loud, but I love what he did."

For the next six months, the Dodgers demonstrated why Roberts possessed that confidence.

They compiled a franchise-record win total, trailing only the 1906 Cubs for the most victories in National League history. They clinched the division with 21 games still to play. Their offense posted the best OPS and wRC+ in the majors. Their pitching staff boasted the best ERA and WHIP in the sport. The Dodgers led the majors in both runs scored and runs allowed, finishing the season with a plus-334 run differential — 154 runs better than that of the next-closest team.

Their success led them to an NLDS matchup against a Padres opponent they beat 14 times and outscored by 62 runs in 19 regular-season matchups.

It’s what made the disaster that ensued all the more staggering. 

Friedman thought this was the deepest 13-man pitching staff the Dodgers had assembled, despite the midseason losses of starting ace Walker Buehler and reliever Daniel Hudson. Before the playoffs began, Roberts called it the best team he has had, "one through 26."

The problem is not all 26 of those players make an impact on games in October. Where the regular season rewards depth, the postseason rewards top-level talent and clutch star performances.

The Dodgers were supposed to get that from their offense, but Mookie Betts went 2-for-14, Will Smith went 3-for-16, Justin Turner went 2-for-13, and Chris Taylor went 0-for-7 with five strikeouts. A team that cashed in all year with scoring opportunities combined to go 5-for-34 with runners in scoring position in the NLDS. Cody Bellinger, the 2019 MVP who has been unable to replicate that form, was left out of the elimination-game lineup.

"He was upset," Roberts said. "He expected to be in there. All year long, I've played him against right-handed pitching, and he wanted to be in there."

The Dodgers finished the NLDS batting .227 as a team. A group accustomed to bowling over opponents all season — the Dodgers played only 30 one-run games, going 16-14 in those matchups — shriveled when the calendar flipped to October. And this year, unlike recent summers, there were no major deadline acquisitions to help get them over the top.

The most significant acquisition was reliever Chris Martin, who played an integral role in the Dodger bullpen but was not considered among the difference-making options available. Joey Gallo, the only offensive addition, made the postseason roster but did not receive an at-bat. Neither did Miguel Vargas, the highly regarded prospect who was placed on the postseason roster for his "hit tool."

Meanwhile, two of baseball’s most notable midseason acquisitions were wearing a home jersey in San Diego. Juan Soto hit the game-tying single in the Padres' Game 4 win. Closer Josh Hader sent the Dodgers packing, putting Betts, Trea Turner and Freeman down in order in the ninth inning.

In the immediate aftermath of the Dodgers’ unlikely defeat, Roberts said a few words to his team, mostly about the disappointment felt by all in the visiting clubhouse at Petco Park.

"There’s not much more he can really say," Freeman said. "You grind all year — starting for these guys in February, me joining the team in March — with one goal in mind."

That goal was not just to make the playoffs, which the Dodgers have done 10 straight seasons, but to win a World Series, something they have done just once during their remarkable decade of sustained success.

After back-to-back World Series losses in 2017 and 2018, the Dodgers won 106 games in 2019, only to be upset by the eventual champion Nationals in the NLDS. Nursing a 3-1 lead in the deciding Game 5, the Dodgers brought Clayton Kershaw in for relief in the eighth inning. Anthony Rendon and Soto each took him deep to tie the game before a Howie Kendrick grand slam off Joe Kelly ended the Dodgers’ season in extras.

A year later, the Dodgers hoisted a championship trophy for the first time in 32 years during an unprecedented, 60-game season. They were motivated to do it again in 2021, this time with fans in attendance. They won 106 games before falling to Freeman’s Braves in the NLCS, ultimately running out of steam after conquering the division-winning Giants in five games in the NLDS.

In that series, there were costly pitching decisions. After starting Game 3 of the NLDS, Max Scherzer emerged out of the bullpen to save Game 5. His successful outing, which moved the Dodgers on to the NLCS, came with repercussions. After going 4⅓ innings in Game 2 against the Braves, Scherzer said he was dealing with "dead arm." That night, the Dodgers held a 4-2 lead in the eighth when Roberts called on Julio Urías, who had started Game 5 of the NLDS three days prior. The 2020 World Series star allowed two runs in relief in the loss. 

Scherzer would not be able to pitch again that series, while Urías started three days later in a 9-2 Game 4 defeat. After overcoming a 3-1 series deficit to the Braves in 2020, the Dodgers could not repeat the comeback a year later.

This postseason, no starters were used in relief. The Dodgers considered their plethora of arms to be among their strengths. But some decisions still strayed from the tactics that helped lead to the best regular season in franchise history.

Tyler Anderson, who threw 123 pitches while taking a no-hitter into the ninth inning in a game this year and who went at least seven innings while yielding one or no runs on six occasions in the regular season, smothered the Padres’ attack in the deciding NLDS Game 4.

The Dodgers had decided against using him in Game 3, instead starting Tony Gonsolin, despite the right-hander’s recent injury history. Gonsolin had pitched only two innings since the start of September due to a forearm strain. The team hoped he could provide four or five innings after building up during the hiatus before the NLDS, but he recorded just four outs in a 2-1 defeat, setting up Anderson to start the elimination game. 

The veteran lefty met the challenge. Anderson held the Padres scoreless through five innings and 86 pitches, retiring 10 of the last 11 batters he faced. When the Dodgers decided his job was done, they preferred the game script ahead for their bullpen.

"I could’ve gone five more," Anderson said. "I would’ve thrown 150 pitches if they would’ve let me, but you never second-guess that situation."

The problem with matching up a string of relievers is it requires everything to go to plan. If one pitcher is off, the rest of the chain can break. If multiple pitchers stumble, the whole thing can crumble. That’s what transpired in the seventh, as three straight batters reached against Tommy Kahnle to start the inning.

All year, Evan Phillips had been the fireman, the reliever the Dodgers trusted to extinguish the highest-leverage threats. With the season in the balance, they instead turned to Yency Almonte.

"Looking at who that part of the lineup was coming up, Yency was the guy right there," Roberts said.

The right-hander, who struck out all five batters he had previously faced in the series, couldn’t replicate the performance in Game 4. Ha-Seong Kim doubled. Soto singled in the tying run.

Almonte started to settle in from there, but the inning unraveled further after a miscommunication. The Dodgers wanted him to pick off to first base to allow lefty Alex Vesia more time to warm up. Instead, Almonte threw a pitch that missed the zone. Vesia entered with a 1-0 count against Jake Cronenworth and surrendered the game-winning hit. An inning later, Philips struck out the side. But by then, it was too late.

The 111-win Dodgers won just one playoff game. All three NL division winners are out after the division series. Even so, Betts didn’t want to use the long layoff caused by the new postseason format as a reason for the team’s abrupt exit and poor play.

"If you want to use it for an excuse, then you can," Betts said. "But it’s definitely an excuse."

Now, Friedman and his staff have a long offseason to figure out how to redeem their performance and rebuild for 2023. Decisions loom.

Trea Turner, Kershaw, Andrew Heaney, Anderson, Gallo, Martin, Kahnle and David Price are all among the Dodgers’ free agents. Right after the loss, Kershaw suggested that he expects to play again next season.

"I think so, but … no buts. I think so," he said. "We’ll see what happens. Going home and being around and being a full-time dad changes your perspective on things, but as of right now, I’ll say I’ll play."

The Dodgers also have a $16 million team option on Justin Turner next year, which includes a $2 million buyout, and they have a decision to make on Bellinger, who’s arbitration-eligible for one more year after making $17 million last season. These are choices the Dodgers didn’t expect to be thinking about so soon.

"It’s just disappointment," Freeman reiterated. "We had a really good team. We just didn’t get it done." 

Rowan Kavner covers the Dodgers and NL West for FOX Sports. He previously was the Dodgers’ editor of digital and print publications. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.