MLB playoff odds: Best bets for Guardians-Yankees Game 5
By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
The winner advances, the loser starts their vacation when the Cleveland Guardians play at the New York Yankees in Game 5 of the American League division series on Monday.
The winner will join the Houston Astros in the American League Championship Series, with the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres competing in the National League Championship Series.
From a betting perspective, I have you covered.
I will guide you through these playoffs by giving you daily study materials. That homework consists of previewing each game with some bets I like for the daily slate.
That is the school bell, which can only mean one thing:
Class is back in session!
Here are my favorite bets for Monday's Guardians-Yankees game.
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Harrison Bader crushes a two-run home run off Cal Quantrill to give the New York Yankees the 3-0 lead.
Cleveland Guardians (Aaron Civale) at New York Yankees (Jameson Taillon), 7:07 p.m. ET Monday, TBS
The good news for the Yankees from Sunday is starting pitcher Gerrit Cole allowed just two earned runs, en route to a win. The better news for the Yankees is that he went seven innings, keeping New York’s bullpen largely fresh, just in case Jameson Taillon runs into trouble. After all, it is an elimination game for both ball clubs. That means any trouble will make teams go to a reliever immediately.
Jameson Taillon’s ERA the first time through the order in 2022 is 3.24, the second time, it’s 4.23, the third and fourth times, it’s 4.62.
For Aaron Civale, his ERA the first time through the order this season is 2.98, the second time, it’s 5.35. Beyond that, it’s 10.38.
There’s the possibility Taillon will last into the middle innings if he’s having a great outing, but for both pitchers, do not expect either to last long.
That's why I’m taking Civale Under 3.5 strikeouts (-120). I would lean Taillion Over 3.5 K’s (+115), but it’s only a lean.
PICK: Aaron Civale (-120) Under 3.5 strikeouts at FOX Bet
While I was not expecting to sweat my World Series pick this early in the postseason, I still like the Yankees to advance. However, instead of taking them on the moneyline, I do want to analyze how the Bronx Bombers will handle Civale’s cutter and curveball combination.
Run value is a Statcast metric that looks at how hitters add (or subtract) to the potential of scoring based upon the count, outs and runners on base. Not only can this stat be grouped by hitters and teams, but it can also be categorized by the types of pitches hitters see.
The best Yankees against cutters and curveballs are Anthony Rizzo and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. I like their chances to pounce on Cleveland's pitching early and collect hits.
PICK: Anthony Rizzo (-155) Over .5 hits at FOX Bet
PICK: Isiah Kiner-Falefa (-190) Over .5 hits at FOX Bet
Don’t forget to turn in your work before the first pitch and get some rest after the game is over, as the Championship Series will feature more excellent opportunities to keep your grades and bankrolls in good places.
Class dismissed!
Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.