MLB odds: 3 betting observations from 2022
By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
Class! Let’s dust off your notes from this past season and look at some betting trends from 2022.
We want to see what happened, figure out why, then use that information to prepare ourselves for when it’s time to place our futures bets on FOX Bet.
Here are three things I noticed:
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Unders prevailed
From my math, if you discard pushes, Unders in the Over/Under won 52% of the time.
One of the things we discussed was how offense was down overall in MLB. Fewer home runs were the main (and perhaps only) reason for the downtick.
This season, 0.74% of pitches were hit out of the yard, the lowest mark since 2015. It’s not that hitters weren’t trying, considering 17.52% of pitches were put in play, the highest rate in five years.
Hitters also were not striking out as often. The 5.78% strikeout rate was the lowest since 2018. Home runs were simply more at a premium.
Blame it on how baseballs were being stored, bad luck, or something else. Betting on Unders tended to be the right move.
A few teams hogged the wins
If the Yankees had notched one more win, we would have witnessed having five 100-win teams in one season for the first time in MLB history.
The Dodgers won 111 games, the most in the National League in more than a century. The NL East featured two ball clubs with triple-digit victories (Braves, Mets). The World Champion Astros went over their win total by 14.5 victories. The good teams were dominant to an extent we do not normally see.
What that result means for preseason win totals is only 12 went Over, while 18 went Under. For perspective, last season was an even 50-50 split.
What did these four 100-win ball clubs have in common? The ability to get on base. Four of the top seven teams in weighted on-base average were the Dodgers, Astros, Braves and Mets.
It may have been tougher to hit home runs this season, but the best teams adjusted and still found ways to score runs.
Back Baltimore’s birds
The Orioles were not going to stay bad forever.
The ball club's first winning season since 2016 was one worth backing against the spread, covering nearly 60% of its games, the best rate in MLB. It seemed like bettors believed Baltimore would regress to the mean and return to the lackluster brand of baseball we were accustomed to seeing.
One thing the O’s did well was limit base on balls. Their 7.2% walk rate was eighth-best in the majors. But it wasn’t just the pitching. The youngsters were starting to showcase their talent, as FanGraphs ranked the Orioles as having the second-best farm system in baseball.
At some point, those players were going to be ready for primetime. No one personified that idea more than catcher Adley Rutschman, who finished with the second-highest FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement among rookies (5.3). Immediately, the O’s stopped being a team you could simply bet to lose outright and take the small payouts.
As always, we learn things now to apply those ideas to next season. However, it’s important not to immediately assume lines and totals will simply bounce the other way because the market is efficient.
For instance, I would not blindly bet Overs next season. However, I would research if home runs occur more often, then adjust accordingly. Teams might also try to hit for average more, which could increase runs scored.
I also do not expect more teams to hit their win totals. It will probably be closer to a 50-50 split, though I will watch free agency to see if the market overreacts to big names going to new places, and I will keep an eye on how well farm systems are performing to see if a team is due to have young stars ready for the show.
Lastly, the Orioles were a great story and are certainly a postseason possibility in 2023, but the win total may be exaggerated. It’s best to look at next season in a vacuum.
There is more studying to be done before more bets are posted on FOX Bet, but until then … class dismissed!
Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.
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