Nationals hold their breath on Strasburg's playoff status
The Washington Nationals are one of the best teams in Major League Baseball, with a strong shot at representing the National League in the World Series. The problem? Stephen Strasburg, one of their top starting pitchers and most important players, is dealing with an arm injury and may not be healthy for the postseason. And that’s a major issue.
From his second start of the year on April 14th through the end of July, Strasburg pitched in 18 games. Over those games, he had a 2.74 ERA in 121.2 innings pitched with an 11.2 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. Those are ace-like numbers. But also important over that period is that the Nationals right-handed starter threw less than 100 pitches only twice—95 and 97—while averaging over 105 pitches per start.
That might not seem excessive, especially given the fact that he hadn’t gone over 114 pitches at any time this season. But Strasburg also wasn’t being given much extra rest, either. From April 14th through his first trip to the disabled list in mid-June this year, there was only one time where he pitched on more than four days of rest. When you consider that he was going out to the mound every fifth day and throwing over 100 pitches, it’s not hard to understand how we got here with Strasburg.
The history with this specific pitcher is important, as well. Strasburg missed the majority of the 2011 season after coming back off of Tommy John Surgery at the age of 22. He pitched well into the 2012 season but was somewhat famously shut down prior to the postseason after throwing 159.1 innings that year. He crossed the 200 inning mark for the first time in 2014, his fifth year in the big leagues, but then was only able to muster 127.1 innings in 2015 after injuries limited him to 23 starts.
The point of the matter is that Strasburg, like some before him that had Tommy John Surgery at a young age, has durability issues. Putting him on the mound for over 100 pitches every fifth day might get you some extra wins, but doing so has put the Nationals at risk of not having him in the playoffs.
Strasburg went on the disabled list for the second time this season after a stretch of three starts in August saw him allow 19 earned runs in 11.2 innings. At the time, it was considered precautionary in nature due to a sore pitching elbow—the same one that he had reconstructed nearly six years ago. He returned to the mound about three weeks later, but only could get through 2.1 innings in a start against the Atlanta Braves before needing to be removed.
The news was decent: Strasburg had a flexor mass strain, and the elbow ligaments were fine. But there’s no guarantee that he returns before the playoffs, or even in the playoffs. If he does return, the fact that he will only have pitched 2.1 innings in nearly two months could play a role in both durability and effectiveness.
The Nationals absolutely need Strasburg to have a chance to win the World Series. Max Scherzer is having a phenomenal year and could be the Cy Young winner in the National League. He’s your number-one-with-a-bullet ace and the guy you want on the mound in game one of the NLDS.
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Following him? You’d hope it would be Strasburg in game two with right-hander Tanner Roark in game three. Gio Gonzalez, who has a track record of being a quality left-hander, hasn’t been exactly stellar this year with a 4.27 ERA, 3.85 FIP, and 8.5 K/9 to 2.9 BB/9. The numbers are fine, but not what you’re hoping for in a must-win game. Not to mention, if he ends up your game three starter, he’s probably one of the weakest game three starters in the National League this season.
If Strasburg can return to full health and pitch well in the postseason, the Washington Nationals are as dangerous as anybody. The Chicago Cubs are going to be the favorite to win the National League pennant, but it’s hard to argue with a healthy front three of the Nats’ rotation—not to mention the bats of Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper, and Anthony Rendon.
But if Strasburg’s health issues get the best of him, the Los Angeles Dodgers—their current matchup in the NLDS—could certainly have the upper-hand. With Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, and Kenta Maeda to go along with assured National League Rookie of the Year, Corey Seager, the Dodgers become a scary match-up for any team in a short series.
But as far as things to worry about go, the Dodger’s rotation and a possible meeting with the Cubs in the NLCS might be on the back-burner for now. Only about three weeks remain until the start of the playoffs, and for now Washington holds their collective breath on the health of Stephen Strasburg’s pitching arm.