MLB Winter Meetings: Will Aaron Judge, Carlos Rodón sign? Who's getting traded?

By Rowan Kavner, Pedro Moura and Jordan Shusterman
Updated Dec 5, 2022 4:13 pm EST

The free-agent frenzy in Major League Baseball is underway as the Winter Meetings begin. It's been three years since the league's top decision-makers have gathered in one room. In December 2019, the playoff field was smaller, the National League didn't have the DH and only Mike Trout was making more than $35 million per season. 

Trout has quite a bit of company in the wake of some recent signings and could have more after what figures to be an eventful week in San Diego. With several of the top free agents still on the open market, the FOX Sports baseball staff revealed what they're most looking forward to from the 2022 Winter Meetings.

All rise

After a quiet start to the offseason, the hot stove has begun to sizzle the past few days. Does that mean Aaron Judge is about to make his decision? I'm interested to see if that happens during the Winter Meetings and the domino effect that could follow. 

Many of the clubs reportedly interested in Judge also happen to be in the market for the elite free-agent shortstops. They're all still available, with the exception of Trea Turner. Are teams waiting to see whether they can land the 62-homer man before making a serious run at Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson? Will Judge's decision ignite the flame and get the offseason rolling? 

Beyond that, I'm curious to see how much actually happens in San Diego. The Winter Meetings were canceled in 2020 due to the pandemic, and the lockout prevented them from happening last year. This is the first time in three years the baseball world is organizing for the annual event. Will that spur more action? Or, alternatively, will teams exercise more patience this offseason not having to worry about the deadlines that last year's lockout created? 

It all could hinge on how quickly Judge decides where he's playing. Once he makes his choice, I expect a flurry of activity to follow. The teams who miss out on the American League MVP will look to spend elsewhere, which at least partially helps to explain the inactivity to this point, and all but two of the priciest options remain on the board. 

— Rowan Kavner

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Ben Verlander and Alex Curry take a look into MLB’s Free-Agent Frenzy with Aaron Judge, Dansby Swanson, Willson Contreras, Koudai Senga and MANY others on the market!

Ace of diamonds

Now that Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander have signed their high-dollar deals before the 2022 Winter Meetings really even kicked off, I’m most curious to see what happens next with Carlos Rodón. He’s now not under any pressure to sign soon, because he’s in a powerful position as by far the best pitcher left on the free-agent market.

So, while he and agent Scott Boras slow-burn this, how many years can they extract out of the highest bidder? The expectation was five, but reports say he’s seeking six, and it’s not beyond the realm of possibility he could succeed in that pursuit. It would be a remarkable outcome, though, considering that the White Sox non-tendered him two years ago, and anyone in baseball could afterward have employed him at a discount rate.

But everything is working in his favor so far this off-season. deGrom got more money than most in the industry anticipated. Verlander matched Max Scherzer’s average-annual value record of more than $43 million per season. Even the low-end starting pitchers, notably Matt Boyd and Mike Clevinger, have been earning greater guarantees than expected.

Could Rodón pivot from year-seeking and instead settle for a high-value, shorter-term deal? That would better loop in the Dodgers, and probably his previous employer, the Giants, as well. Whatever he decides, we are probably going to get a better indication of what exactly he wants while the sport is assembled here in San Diego. And maybe some team will be desperate enough to get him to agree to a deal right here, right now.

— Pedro Moura

Let's make a deal

I know Judge and the remaining high-profile shortstops are going to be the primary focus at the Winter Meetings. I don’t blame anyone who is heading to San Diego hoping for a redux of the 2019 Winter Meetings where superagent Scott Boras secured over $800M combined for free agents Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and Anthony Rendon over the course of just a couple days. The idea of deGrom, Verlander, Turner, Judge, Correa and Rodón all signing in the span of a week is undeniably exciting. 

However, I’m always much more fascinated by the trade market during Hot Stove season, mostly for its unpredictability. With free agents, we know who is available and which teams are generally making a run at them, so when deals ultimately go down, we’re rarely entirely caught off guard. Trades tend to be constructed in much greater secrecy and it’s almost impossible to know who exactly is available or could be thrown into a larger trade when you least expect it. All 30 teams’ front-office groups gathering in the same hotel for a handful of days is often a good breeding ground for formulating a big-time swap in short order. Free-agent mega-deals may have been the theme of the Meetings three years ago, but I fondly remember the 2016 Winter Meetings where the Red Sox pulled off a blockbuster for Chris Sale from the White Sox. Going into the meetings, Oakland catcher Sean Murphy appears to be the biggest name likely on the move, but there are so many teams reportedly pursuing him that I’m eager to see if a giant deal for Murphy or another surprise trade candidate ultimately culminates in San Diego.  

— Jordan Shusterman

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