MLB Playoff Watch: Which contenders have the hardest road to October?

By Rowan Kavner
Updated Sep 4, 2023 8:22 am ET

As Mookie Betts and Ronald Acuña Jr. traded homers Thursday at Dodger Stadium, the attention fixated as much on the back-and-forth MVP race as the game itself. 

That's a tribute to what those players — and their respective teams — are accomplishing this year. 

While this weekend's results in Los Angeles could make an impact on playoff seeding, neither the Dodgers nor the Braves need to worry about getting into the dance. They're the only teams with a double-digit division lead, which brings with it a sense of calm and relief other clubs can't understand. 

For most teams, the next few weeks will determine their playoff fate. And their strength of schedule the rest of the way could make all the difference. 

These are the contenders with the hardest roads to postseason contention: 

(Note: Only teams fewer than five games out of a playoff spot were considered for this week's rankings.)

NL'S ELITE

16) Atlanta Braves (90-46, 1st in NL East) 
FanGraphs' Playoff Projections: 100%

15) Los Angeles Dodgers (84-52, 1st in NL West) 
Playoff Projections: 100%

Most expected a tight race this year in the NL East among the Braves, Mets and Phillies. This was also supposedly the year the Padres would capture the NL West crown. Instead, it's business as usual. 

Both the Braves and Dodgers have all but wrapped up their respective divisions again, this time with more than a month to play. The Braves cemented their standing as the best team in baseball by taking three of four games in Los Angeles this weekend, but neither team has much to worry about the rest of the way outside of playoff seeding and determining which players will ultimately make their October rosters. 

BEASTS OF THE EAST

14) Baltimore Orioles (85-51, 1st in AL East)
Playoff Projections: 100%

13) Tampa Bay Rays (83-54, AL wild card No. 1) 
Playoff Projections: 99.8%

Like the Braves and Dodgers, both of these teams have built such a cushion on the rest of the contenders in their league that getting into the postseason isn't much of a question. Unfortunately for them, they're in the same division.

Only 2.5 games separate first-place Baltimore and second-place Tampa Bay, and the Rays have arguably the toughest slate of any contender. They still have six games against the Blue Jays, five against the still-competitive Red Sox, four apiece against the Mariners and Orioles and a three-game set with the Twins. All of those clubs could still be fighting for something in late September. 

Remember that only the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds get a first-round bye, and both of those teams will be division winners. The odds are strong that the top two teams in the East finish as the Nos. 1 and 4 seeds, respectively, which should give the Orioles and Rays plenty to fight for the rest of the way — even if they both clinch a playoff spot long before season's end. 

FRONT AND CENTRAL

12) Minnesota Twins (71-66, 1st in AL Central)
Playoff Projections: 94.4%

Cleveland's decision to add some Guardian Angels suddenly makes the AL Central race a little more interesting. Minnesota can no longer waltz to a division title quite as easily as it might have seemed. Still, the Twins have built a comfortable five-game cushion in the division and have the easiest strength of schedule remaining of any playoff contender.

11) Milwaukee Brewers (76-60, 1st in NL Central) 
Playoff Projections: 98.8%

They already have a leg up on the rest of the Central, and they have an easier road ahead than the second-place Cubs. They get to play the Cardinals seven more times — who could've predicted that would be a welcome sight? — but a three-game set against the Cubs to end the year is setting up for some fun. 

PHILLIN' GOOD 

10)  Philadelphia Phillies (75-61, NL wild card No.1) 
Playoff Projections: 96.3%

The Phillies find themselves in a category on their own. They're not winning the East, but they're comfortable atop the wild-card standings, even after dropping a series to the Brewers. It would be a shock if they fizzle out of the playoff mix, even with seven more games against the Braves. Seven of the Phillies' final 10 games are against a Mets team that doesn't want to win. Then again, if those games end up having postseason implications, the Amazins might find a little more juice.  

WEST WATCH 

9) Houston Astros (77-61, AL wild card No. 3) 
Playoff Projections: 88.7%

It'll be hard enough for the Mariners and Rangers to hold off the reigning champions and win the division. Add on the fact that nine of the Astros' final 24 games are against the A's and Royals, and it's hard to imagine Houston out of the playoff picture either as a division winner or wild-card club — even after getting swept by the Yankees at home this weekend. 

The AL West club that comes out victorious in this three-team sprint to the finish will likely secure a first-round bye. 

8) Seattle Mariners (77-59, 1st in AL West)
Playoff Projections: 85.4%

Among the logjam of teams atop the AL West, they have the hardest road ahead. They're the only contenders in their division who have to see the Dodgers and Rays in September. But their fate will be decided in the last couple of weeks, with their regular season finishing with seven games against the Rangers and three against the Astros. 

7) Texas Rangers (76-60, AL wild card No. 2) 
Playoff Projections: 67.5%

See above. Whatever happens over the next two weeks, seven of the Rangers' final 10 games are against a Mariners team they will likely be vying with for a playoff spot. Those games will carry a ton of weight, but it'll also be interesting to see how competitive Boston and Cleveland still are two weeks from now. If both remain in the mix, there won't be much time for the Rangers to exhale this month.  

GETTING WILD 

6) Chicago Cubs (73-64, NL wild card No. 2)
Playoff Projections: 78%

After the Phillies, the Cubs have established themselves as the clear No. 2 in the wild-card race. They just split a series with the Reds, but they haven't lost one since Aug. 9 and have built a three-game cushion on the wild-card contenders behind them. After a challenging week at home against the Giants and D-backs, they get a stretch of nine of 12 against the Rockies and Pirates. That could allow them some breathing room before a daunting final week against the Braves and Brewers.  

5) Toronto Blue Jays (75-62, 1.5 games back of AL wild card) 
Playoff Projections: 52.4%

Suddenly, the Yankees are winning again. That could make what seemed to be a relatively manageable road ahead for the Blue Jays a bit more complicated. Their final 12 games of the year are against the Bronx Bombers and the Rays. Currently 1.5 games back of a playoff spot, the next week is a crucial time for the Jays to make up ground. They have three games apiece against Oakland and Kansas City before welcoming the Rangers to town in an enticing four-game set. 

4) Arizona Diamondbacks (70-67, T-NL wild card No. 3) 
Playoff Projections: 33.5%

3) San Francisco Giants (70-67, T-NL wild card No. 3) 
Playoff Projections: 48.7%

Now it gets fun. 

All four of the remaining teams on this list have the exact same winning percentage and are likely fighting for the final spot in the NL playoffs. These two NL West clubs share equal records and similar strengths of schedule the rest of the way. They only have two games against each other remaining. How the D-backs fare in seven games against the Cubs and how the Giants perform in seven more matchups against the division-leading Dodgers could make the difference. 

2) Cincinnati Reds (71-68, T-NL wild card No. 3) 
Playoff Projections: 16.1%

It's been a bit of a struggle lately in Cincinnati, but don't count this team out yet. Sure, relying on an abundance of rookies is not a recipe for late-season success. But after hosting the Mariners to start this coming week, 17 of the Reds' final 20 games are against teams that currently sport a losing record. The exception is the Twins. 

1) Miami Marlins (70-67, T-NL wild card No. 3)
Playoff Projections: 26.4%

The Marlins took care of business in Washington and now share the same record as the D-backs and Giants. Unfortunately for the fish, their path forward is among the toughest in the sport. Their next four series are against the Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers and Braves. If they can survive that gauntlet, though, things get interesting. Nine of their final 12 games are against the Mets and Pirates.

Rowan Kavner covers the Dodgers and MLB as a whole for FOX Sports. He previously was the Dodgers' editor of digital and print publications. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.