MLB odds: Who to bet among World Series favorites, pick

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Welcome back, class!

Since the Houston Astros clinched the 2022 World Series, we witnessed an epic World Baseball Classic and have data from spring training to help us figure out which futures bets to make to win the 2023 World Series. While neither event should have an overwhelming impact on our bets, any edge we can find will be helpful.

On FOX Bet, there is a three-way tie for the favorite at +600: the defending champion Astros, the New York Yankees and the New York Mets. 

Which of these offer us betting value? Let’s break down each ball club, with odds from FOX Bet.

[RELATED: Who has MLB's best lineup?]

Houston Astros: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)

Among the injuries sustained by MLB players during the WBC, one of the bigger ones was to one of the few Astros who’s on the roster for every American League pennant winner – second baseman Jose Altuve. He underwent thumb surgery on Wednesday after getting hit by a pitch in Venezuela’s game against the United States. Astros general manager Dan Brown told reporters he expects Altuve to be out for at least two months.

Last season, Altuve had one of his better seasons as a hitter. Though his exit velocity was down, he was still able to make good contact and "hit ‘em where they ain’t." His weighted on-base average of .397 ranked in the 98th percentile of MLB hitters and his 14.5% strikeout rate was in the 90th percentile. Not having Altuve for at least two months could cost Houston a win or two.

Houston will also be without outfielder Michael Brantley (shoulder) and pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. (forearm) for Opening Day, though both should return far sooner than Altuve.

Then, there are the offseason moves. Because they have won four AL pennants in the past six seasons, it seems like every roster change the Astros makes deserves the benefit of the doubt.

This season is no different.

The Astros may have lost Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, but they have more than enough arms to make up for the absence. Framber Valdez and José Urquidy ranked in the top 50 last season in Fielding Independent Pitching and Cristian Javier may become one of the elite strikeout artists of the year. As for hitting, adding a reliable RBI man in first baseman José Abreu can only help.

Lastly, there are the new rules. Now that MLB has banned the shift, some hitters will be able to hit more grounders through the infield. Opta Analyst looked at how many hits were lost because of the shift, and since 2020, no team was hurt more than the Astros, losing 232 hits they would’ve had if the shift were never used during that time frame.

Ultimately, the Astros are too deep to drop out of contention.

New York Yankees: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)

All rise!

This phrase isn’t just for an Aaron Judge introduction, it’s a cry for what Yankees’ fans hope the rest of the starting lineup will do.

While Judge’s FanGraphs WAR of 11.2 last season was indeed astronomical, it was nearly a third of all the fWAR Yankees’ hitters were able to muster. Expecting Judge to match his league-leading 62 home runs and wOBA of .458 may be unrealistic, and any dip closer to his projections of approximately 40 home runs and .400 wOBA will be significant.

One thing in the Bronx Bombers’ favor is qualified hitters underperformed their expected statistics. If a slugger had a batting average lower than their expected batting average, often the BA will improve the following season. Take designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton, who missed several games last season due to injury but may now play more than a quarter of the season in the outfield to make room for other hitters. While his BA was .211, his xBA was .240, giving him the biggest difference among Yankees sluggers. If he’s healthy, he can make up for Judge’s probable decline.

As for pitching, they have added LHP Carlos Rodón, who relies on a four-seam fastball that goes up and in on right-handed hitters. His expected ERA of 2.64 ranked in the 90th percentile of MLB pitchers. Given the starting rotation, led by Gerrit Cole, was already highly touted, pitching will not be the chief concern for the Yankees in 2023.

New York Mets: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)

Forgive Mets fans who argued about the existence of the WBC, having lost their all-universe closer Edwin Díaz to a knee injury he suffered after celebrating a victory. The Mets' closer had a strikeout rate of 50.2% and given how stable strikeout rates are from one season to the next, it was reasonable for his incredible season to be at least mostly replicated. No matter how successful New York’s bullpen may be in Díaz’s absence, it will not be at this level.

Two starting pitching roles are going to newcomers: Verlander, the defending AL Cy Young winner, and Japanese sensation Kodai Senga. There are a variety of outcomes for both. While Verlander has been an incredible story after recovering from Tommy John surgery, he is 40 years old and expecting him to replicate a season with an ERA of 1.75 is unrealistic. Senga may become a superstar in MLB, but his prospects report suggests his velocity may be as more of a middle-of-the-rotation role.

The hitting should not be an issue for the Mets as they finished 2022 with the second-highest xBA (.252). But operating from the same league as the Braves and Dodgers does not bode well when it comes to having such short odds.

Two more lessons: Everyone plays everybody this season, so spend less time worrying about opponents in each ball club's division and more about each team’s potential. Second, finishing in the top two of each league means avoiding an extra round of the postseason, which is huge for projecting a champion.

I like the Astros’ chances of doing just that, so +600 is a safe bet. I would put less down on the Yankees but the math works if it is half-a-unit. I would avoid the Mets altogether, as the added moves may be more about the long-term than right now.

Class dismissed!

PICK: Astros (+600 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $70 total) to win World Series

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football.  Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.

Top stories:

• Mattress Mack, Houston out of March Madness
• UConn dominant again, just as coach promised
• Florida Atlantic revels in run to Final Four
• FAU taunts Kansas State by dancing to Lil Baby
• UConn women's Final Four streak ends
• Yankees' Luis Severino has lat strain
• Assessing Phillies' options at first base

Play FOX Super 6 every week for your chance to win thousands of dollars every week. Just download the Super 6 app and make your picks today!