MLB odds: How sportsbooks set baseball lines ahead of Opening Day
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The Major League Baseball season starts Thursday afternoon on the North Side of Chicago when the Cubs host the Milwaukee Brewers at Wrigley Field.
If you had asked me a month ago, I would have definitely made an Opening Day on April 7 the betting underdog. Thankfully, the owners and player’s union came to their senses to end an ugly offseason full of labor disagreements.
But I digress.
When the MLB lockout officially reached an agreement, baseball oddsmakers in Las Vegas were immediately thrust back into the fire. There was very little time for celebration – numbers and win totals needed to be calibrated.
"The whole process really sucked this year because of the lockout," Circa Sports sportsbook manager Chris Bennett told FOX Sports. "I wasn’t going to do all this extra work if there wasn’t going to be [a full season]. So, we had only had the World Series and the pennants posted in the beginning.
"During the first few days of Spring Training games, I really started to fine-tune my numbers and compile research and opinions to post the season win totals and divisional odds that I felt confident in. After that, it was the exotic stuff like the player to hit the most home runs, MVP and Cy Young.
"We’re talking 12 to 14 hours every day working on baseball to line and book the Spring Training action while also building all these future markets.
"I didn’t put up anything that was way off," Bennett added. "I was significantly lower on the Mariners and higher on the Giants, so we took ‘Over’ money on Seattle and ‘Under’ money on San Francisco. But none of the season win totals moved more than three wins."
I made sure to remind Bennett of my preseason pick on the Atlanta Braves to win the 2021 World Series at +1400 before explaining why I love the Los Angeles Dodgers to win it all this year (+500 at FOX Bet).
Yes, they’re the preseason favorite, but that lineup don’t play.
Manager Dave Roberts has his deepest offense yet, with Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Will Smith and Chris Taylor expected to fill out the top-seven slots. And oh yeah, former National League MVP Cody Bellinger will likely bat eighth. Sheesh.
According to StatFox, the Dodgers were underdogs in three games last season. That’s not a typo. Three games. And I think they’re scarier this season.
"Gosh, that’s insane," Bennett cracked. "They’ll be dogs more than three times this year, but it’s not unreasonable to think they’ll be favored in around 140 games. I can tell you, though, we’re at 99.5 regular-season wins, and nobody is betting them ‘Over.’
"The biggest question mark is Trevor Bauer. He won the Cy Young two years ago, and we don’t know if he’ll pitch for five months or not pitch at all. Dustin May comes back from Tommy John late in the year. Will Danny Duffy be useful? They can definitely use that depth because the rotation is not great at the back end with Tony Gonsolin and Andrew Heaney.
"People aren’t betting the Dodgers like they’re the greatest baseball team of all time."
While money isn’t exactly pouring in on the Dodgers, the Toronto Blue Jays have received tons of respect from professional bettors. They’re now co-favorites with the Houston Astros to win the pennant (+450 at FOX Bet).
Most American sportsbooks opened the New York Yankees as the divisional betting favorite, which lasted about a week. The "wise guys" were quick to whack the Blue Jays at any price of +200 or higher.
Toronto is currently +175 to win the AL East at FOX Bet.
"The Blue Jays are clearly the best team in the division," Bennett analyzed. "I’m a bit nervous about the Yankees with that rotation and the bullpen beyond [Aroldis] Chapman. New York is going to need Luis Severino to retain the dominance he showcased a few seasons ago. The Blue Jays’ lineup is just as good, if not better, and the Jays have better starting pitchers.
"As for the Rays, they’re in this special sector with the Giants where you just give those teams the benefit of the doubt for being really good at roster construction. Nobody is betting Tampa Bay’s win total either way, so nobody has a strong opinion. I respect what the Rays have done the last few years."
One team that Bennett has come around on is the Philadelphia Phillies. Usually, teams that win the offseason are overvalued in the betting market, especially when it’s a team that spent a combined $180 million on one-trick ponies like Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber.
Bennett wasn’t biting the bait in the early going.
"We were the lowest number on the Phillies when I opened, but I’m coming around on them being very good," Bennett explained. "That win total went up right away, and the market is definitely saying that my initial doubts and negativity could easily be wrong.
"The Phillies have a ton of power, and they should mash and cause problems against less-than-elite pitching. The defense is a concern, but they can utilize the DH to hide one of those poor defenders. We know Schwarber is bad defensively, Castellanos isn’t anything special and Alec Bohm was a disaster at third base last year.
"It really comes down to the uncertainty of the pitching. Zack Wheeler can’t be any better than he was last year. You never know what you’re going to get from Kyle Gibson and Zach Eflin has battled injury problems. The bullpen signed three veterans – Corey Knebel, Jeurys Familia and Brad Hand – but I’m not convinced about that group being anything special. I guess we’ll find out."
I think the Phillies, Atlanta Braves and New York Mets all have inflated season win totals, which naturally provides "Over" value on a team like the Miami Marlins (O/U 76.5 wins at FOX Bet).
The Derek Jeter era is over in South Beach, and the front office made some solid moves to bring in veterans like Jorge Soler, Avasail Garcia and Joey Wendle. Every starter in the Fish rotation is between 24 and 26 years old with good stuff and a fresh arm. I believe Miami will be a profitable bet as an underdog in 2022.
Meanwhile, Bennett’s win total sleeper resides in the AL Central.
"The Chicago White Sox are the clear-cut favorite, but the Minnesota Twins (O/U 81.5 wins) have a ton of potential," Bennett opined. "If Byron Buxton can stay healthy, lookout. I don’t think people appreciate him because he’s been injured so much over the last few years.
"If you look over his last 150 to 200 games, he’s one of the best outfielders in the game. Buxton-Polanco-Correa-Arraez is a very good top four, and they’re all solid all-around hitters. The starting rotation is underrated, too.
"I think Buxton can be a superstar in this league. I wasn’t trying to write many American League MVP bets on Buxton at double-digit odds. I know Ohtani and Trout aren’t going anywhere, but I am the highest in the market on Byron Buxton at +1250. I really respect his game."
When you create, book and maneuver betting markets all day like Bennett does behind the counter at Circa, liability inevitably builds up on a particular team or player over a short period of time. That’s the way it works.
We know Bennett isn’t sweating teams like the L.A. Dodgers in the future book or players like San Diego’s Fernando Tatis Jr. to win NL MVP. Remember, Tatis Jr. could miss up to three months with a fractured wrist.
Does anything make him nervous?
"Everyone is in love with [Mariners rookie center fielder] Julio Rodriguez," Bennett said after a laugh. "We took bets on him to hit the most homers and also to win the American League MVP.
"If Rodriguez hits 60 home runs this year, we’re going to lose a lot of money."
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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