MLB odds: Better futures bet to make right now, Yankees or Mets?

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Greetings Class! It’s time to get you into an Empire State of Mind. So break out those metro cards, grab a hot dog and let’s talk New York baseball. 

Now that the Yankees and Mets have wrapped up this season's Subway Series with a 2-2 record and a zero run differential, let’s answer this critical question: who are the real Kings of New York? In other words, which ball club should you place a futures bet on? 

These teams have had similar paths this year. At one time, the Yankees and Mets led their respective divisions by substantial margins and owned the top seed in their leagues. Now, there’s real concern the Yankees don’t have enough to be competitive in a postseason series, and the Mets will be surpassed by the Braves, forcing them to play a Wild Card series.

However, these skids are where the similarities end. Let’s break down the identities of each squad with data.

New York Yankees: +450 (bet $10 to win $460 total) to Win the World Series

Yankees fans have learned the hard way that Aaron Judge can't carry this entire ball club.

Let's look at the rest of the NYY roster using a stat called weighted runs created plus (wRC+), which analyzes how many runs a batter creates, then adjusts for factors like ballpark and period of time (some eras were more offensively inclined than others). Keep in mind that one hundred is average, and any number above or below 100 represents a percentage of how much better or worse that hitter is compared to average. 

Since the All-Star Break, outside of Judge, only Kyle Higashioka has a wRC+ greater than 130. For perspective, the Astros have five hitters better than 30% above league average.

However, I'm here to talk you off the ledge and tell you there's room for optimism. You'll see a different picture from the expected statistics and the full season. The team's average exit velocity is second at 90 mph. When it comes to hard hit rate or how often contact has an exit velocity of greater than 95 mph, the Yankees rank third (42.5%). Lastly, when looking at Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA), which puts elements like exit velocity and launch angle together to measure offensive output, the Yanks rank atop MLB.  

Health is their main issue right now. If the team can get guys like Giancarlo Stanton completely healthy for October, August will be more of an anomaly than the rule.

New York Mets: +350 (bet $10 to win $360 total) to Win the World Series

Having a healthy Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer is humongous. DeGrom’s average fastball velocity of 99.5 mph is one of the faster marks in MLB, and Scherzer has one of the more lethal sliders in the game with a total run value of -14 (second in the NL). However, it’s important to note how much of a role the top two starters will likely play in today’s postseason.

In a seven-game series, while deGrom and Scherzer will get the majority of starts, their appearances will likely be shorter. Take last year’s World Champion Atlanta Braves. No starter lasted longer than six innings during their entire postseason run, and their roster included hurlers like Max Fried, who could throw complete games.  

More than ever, teams rely on their bullpens in the postseason, regardless of who the starters are. Fortunately for the Mets, they do boast one of the top closers in Edwin Díaz, who ranks No. 1 in strikeouts per nine innings (17.7) and fifth in Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched (0.89) among all active closers. Beyond Díaz, we can look at a stat called Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP), which considers outcomes a pitcher is solely responsible for, like walks, strikeouts and fly balls. By isolating only relievers, the Mets rank third-best in xFIP (3.58), trailing only the Guardians and the Dodgers. No matter where you look, the Mets’ pitching staff has almost no weaknesses.

(On a side note, how good is deGrom? Well, he's currently listed as a -450 moneyline favorite as the starter today with the Mets taking on the Rockies. Fun fact: Since 1995, the Mets have only had one other game with a moneyline of at least -400. That game was played on Sept 25, 2019, and they won 10-3 as -500 favorites against the Marlins. Who was the pitcher that day? Jacob deGrom.)

So what does this all meaning from a betting perspective? Now that we have established these identities, how well will each ball club perform on the other side of the ledger? For the Yankees, their bullpen ranks 12th in xFIP. Mets’ sluggers rank 19th in average exit velocity, 22nd in hard-hit rate and ninth in xwOBA. While both teams have glaring weaknesses approaching the home stretch of the regular season, the Yankees seem to be in a better position to cover them up, whether it’s the recent trade for Frankie Montas or improved injury luck. 

Also, there’s virtually no chance of the Pinstripes losing one of the top two seeds and having to play an extra series. Finally, given the epic run the Dodgers are enjoying right now, there’s logic in avoiding Los Angeles for as long as possible (although I still believe in the value of the Braves).  

Especially with a bigger payout to win the World Series, my New York preference is to bet on the Yankees to win their pennant and the championship.  

Class dismissed!

PICK: New York Yankees to win AL Pennant (+200, bet $10 to win $210 total)
PICK: New York Yankees to win World Series (+450, bet $10 to win $460 total)

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football.  Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.

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