MLB odds: Best Cy Young futures bets to make now

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Class is back in session! I'm Ed Egros — your fun, friendly MLB betting professor. I don't mind you missing a class or two, but I'll make you pay for frequent absences in the form of stadium concessions. And we all know how pricey that can get.

We started this course in baseball betting with an introduction to Statcast and then we applied these lessons to World Series futures. Then we dived into the MVP futures market. Now, we’re going to jump into Cy Young futures.

Be warned: this award does have some dangerous pitfalls.

Halfway through last season, Mets' ace Jacob deGrom's odds to win the Cy Young were as short as -500. That's an implied probability of 83.3%! Can't go wrong with that, right?

Wrong.

Ultimately, various injuries kept deGrom from finishing one of the great seasons in MLB history, and his historic start was not enough to overcome missing half the year. Corbin Burnes wound up claiming the honor.

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A tough life lesson learned in the case of deGrom is that betting on such short odds does not always guarantee a payout for the gambler. But it also highlights the importance of predicting which hurlers will have the most innings pitched (IP) by the end of the season. Take for instance last season when Toronto’s Robbie Ray led the American League in IP and wound up winning the Cy Young. Intuitively, it makes sense to track IP because a pitcher’s stuff has to be good enough for a manager to keep his ace out there throwing deep into ball games.

When it comes to voter behavior, formulaic and successful approaches — like those employed by MLB data architect Tango Tiger — are put to use. These approaches factor in earned runs, strikeouts and wins. Expected batting average (xBA) is another useful tool. That Statcast statistic takes into account the batting average a pitcher would normally allow based on the exit velocity of hits, launch angle and more. If you combine xBA and IP, there’s a discernible trend of league rankings among Cy Young winners over the last five years.

Let's take a look at pitchers, and their xBA and IP rankings.

It turns out xBA is a fairly predictive metric to use in forecasting who will win the Cy Young. In seasons when it does not point to the top finisher, IP picks up the slack.

An unfortunate problem still remains, however, when predicting the Cy Young winner. As with any futures, bettors need to carefully research who can stay healthy for enough of the season. With that in mind, here are some pitchers to invest in, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

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American League

Shane McClanahan: +1200 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $130 total)

He's a southpaw who can throw 100 mph. But that's not the most impressive thing about the Rays' standout. Currently, McClanahan ranks second in xBA in the AL (.201). While he has worked six fewer innings than the MLB leader in Corbin Burnes, he did not go five innings in his first two starts this season and does play for a ball club that is less likely to keep a starter on the mound for extended periods of time. McClanahan boasts a 38.2% strikeout rate which is among the best in baseball and that's largely with a 4-seam fastball that sets up a curve and changeup.

Frankie Montas: +3000 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $310 total)

It may seem strange for a more experienced pitcher to have longer odds given a larger sample size. However, since he entered the majors in 2015, last season was his first as a regular starter and the only one when he pitched more than 100 innings.

He has always had a strong strikeout repertoire, but now he’s showcasing it frequently. Montas has a .227 xBA, and that's good for fifth-best in the AL. Also, his 43 innings of work is among the most in the majors. His splitter has a lot of drop to it but Montas is not afraid of going to the 4-seamer, sinker or slider as a putaway pitch. Since he's likely to get traded, a new situation could lead to volatility, but perhaps Montas is still worth the wager.

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National League

Max Fried: +2000 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $210 total)

The Braves' starter may have not given baseball fans a positive first impression in 2022 by allowing five earned runs against the struggling Reds, but that outing should be a distant memory.

Fried ranks third in the NL in IP (43.0) and in the top 50 in the majors in xBA (.272). Certainly, that second stat needs to improve if gamblers are to give him any serious consideration, but last season he finished 19th in xBA and 35th in 2019. Fried relied on an effective 4-seamer last season, and while hitters are seeing it better now, his curveball still has a 36% strikeout rate.

Aaron Nola: +4000 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $410 total)

Not only is there expected batting average, but there’s also expected earned run average (xERA) that functions the same way — the ERA you would expect based upon contact from hitters. Nola’s ERA-xERA difference ranks in the top 50 in baseball (1.36) and it actually ranks much higher when filtering out those with suboptimal earned run averages.

Nola has had some bad luck, which means betting on him to win the Cy Young gives you a higher payout than perhaps expected. But he still features a 4-seamer with a lot of horizontal break with an xBA specifically of .120. He is not walking hitters and Nola’s strikeout rate is in the 83rd percentile.

Whether these are young arms or pitchers who haven't had a lot of injuries, each hurler has the makings of an ace who can endure a full season, which may be the best attribute to have when in contention for the Cy Young. Finding a pitcher with that stamina is the top priority as you place your bets.

Before the next assignment, be sure to head over to FOX Bet to get in on the MLB Cy Young award betting action now. Until then, class is dismissed!

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.

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