MLB: Looking Ahead to Career Milestones of 2017

Oct 6, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre (29) takes batting practice before the game against theToronto Blue Jays in game one of the 2016 ALDS playoff baseball game at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Major MLB career milestones are reached every year. Here are five that stand out most for the 2017 season as the new campaign approaches.

With the Winter Meetings firmly planted in the rear-view mirror and the Hot Stove cooling down to something less than a boil, baseball fans must look forward to what is coming next. There are free agents left to sign and trades to be consummated, but as we roll towards the holiday season, we start to focus more on rosters as they currently stand as opposed to what they could be. While it may be a little early to start making on-the-record prognostications for the upcoming season, we can still look ahead and make some guesses regarding what we might be able to see in 2017.

Baseball is a numbers game, but sometimes the meanings of those numbers change. For example, 500 home runs does not mean as much as it used to, but 300 wins in today’s climate of five-man rotations, pitch counts and deeper bullpens might mean more than it did in past generations. Milestones are nonetheless still fascinating to track. There is something alluring about round numbers players can accumulate over the course of a career.

There are bound to be certain milestones crossed each season. In 2016 we saw Ichiro Suzuki reach 3,000 hits and Albert Pujols surpass 100 career wins above replacement (per Baseball Reference’s calculations). 2017 should bring an interesting collection of achievements for some great players in various stages of their careers. Let’s take a look at some of the more noticeable accomplishments we may see during the upcoming season.

Sep 26, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Bartolo Colon (40) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Bartolo Colon – 250 wins

Pitcher wins don’t mean as much as they used to, and for good reason. There are many other statistics, both simple and advanced, that can paint a better picture of a pitcher’s performance in a game, in a season or in a career. But wins and losses are still assigned to pitchers, and at least serve to tell about a pitcher’s longevity. Approaching his age-44 season, Bartolo Colon has longevity in spades.

Colon still has 17 wins to go to reach the 250-win milestone. He is the active leader in wins, 10 ahead of CC Sabathia and nobody else remotely close. It will be a long time before we see another pitcher cross the 300-win threshold, so we have to celebrate our current reality. Colon has surpassed 17 wins five times in his career, including as recently as 2013. However, only nine pitchers reached 17 wins last season, and counting on a 44-year-old pitcher to strike gold once again is not a great bet. Having said that, Colon has certainly beat the odds in the past and is pitching for a much-improved Atlanta Braves squad.

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Colon did not make his MLB debut until he was nearly 24. He had perhaps his best season in 2002, when he won 20 games with a 2.93 ERA for Cleveland and Montreal, who acquired him for the steep price of Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore and Lee Stevens. Colon won 18 games in 2004 despite a 5.01 ERA, and rebounded well to win the Cy Young in 2005. The bottom then fell out for Colon, as bouts of injuries and ineffectiveness limited him to a total of 257 innings over 48 appearances for the next five seasons, posting a 14-21 record, 5.18 ERA and 1.51 WHIP over that stretch. He looked done.

A funny thing happened on the way to retirement, though, as Colon resurrected his career with the Yankees, flourished with the Athletics and became a cult hero with the Mets. He has made two all-star teams since turning 40 and there really seems to be no end in sight. Bartolo Colon will never be a hall of famer, but the 250-win marker should be a special one for Big Sexy.

Oct 22, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) throws against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning of game six of the 2016 NLCS playoff baseball series at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

Clayton Kershaw – 2,000 strikeouts

Don’t let last season’s back injury or several years of relatively disappointing postseason appearances lead you to believe that Clayton Kershaw is anything short of amazing. His career adjusted ERA+ of 159 is the best among starting pitchers in MLB history, comfortably ahead of Pedro Martinez and behind only Mariano Rivera among pitchers with 1,000 career innings pitched. Kershaw will turn 29 just before the start of the 2017 season. He will not be the youngest to reach 2,000 career strikeouts. He will not even be the youngest to reach that milestone this decade, with Felix Hernandez crossing the mark at 29 years, 32 days in 2015.

There are eight players who reached 2,000 career strikeouts before turning 30. However, while Kershaw was by no means a late-bloomer, making his MLB debut two months after his 20th birthday, he will be the first person to join that club without recording a strikeout as a teenager. Kershaw will need a near-reprise of his 301-strikeout campaign in 2015 to set the record for most strikeouts by a player in his age-20 through age-29 seasons, as he sits 288 behind Sam McDowell over that timeframe. Even coming off an injury-plagued campaign, that is certainly not outside the realm of possibility.

With good health, Kershaw could conceivably reach 2,200 strikeouts by the end of the 2017 season in fewer than 2,000 career innings pitched. He is a pitcher in the heart of his prime, pitching for a championship contender in a park that favors pitchers. He can opt out of his contract following the 2018 season, and one can only imagine what kind of contract Kershaw might be able to receive at the age of 31. Appreciate his dominance now as he prepares to pitch for a new deal.

Sep 3, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Los Angeles Angels designated hitter Albert Pujols (5) watches his two-run homer against the Seattle Mariners during the second inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Albert Pujols – 600 home runs

Back in 1996, Eddie Murray became the 15th player to reach 500 home runs. That once-exclusive club has ballooned to 27 players, with Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Beltre poised to join the ranks within the next couple of years. 600 is the new 500.

Albert Pujols has been a disappointment in almost every respect on the field since moving to Anaheim five seasons ago. Few could have expected Pujols to continue to be as dominant as he was during while wearing a slightly different shade of red in St. Louis, but Pujols’s less than amazing 2011 season with the Cardinals was more a sign of things to come than a blip in the radar.

Pujols hit at least 32 home runs in each of his 11 seasons as a Cardinal, yet has reached that figure only once with the Angels, when he hit 40 in 2015. That was his seventh season hitting at least 40 home runs, though he has never hit 50 in a season. With chronically problematic plantar fascia – the ligaments connecting the heel to the toes – Pujols probably will never reach that 50 mark in a season. He is still an asset with the bat, but the what-ifs will always be at the forefront when discussing Pujols’s career. It would take a near catastrophe for him not to reach 3,500 career hits and 700 home runs before the end of his contract, expiring after the 2021 season.

Pujols is 175 hits away from 3,000 in his career, and he hasn’t had that many in a season since 2010. He should, however, have no problem reaching 600 home runs early in the season, as he needs nine to reach the milestone only eight players before him have. As long as offseason surgery does not keep him out longer than expected, Pujols should record the 21 homers required to match Jim Thome for seventh on the career home run list this season.

Albert Pujols is the active leader in runs scored, doubles, home runs, RBI, walks, slugging percentage, OPS, and total bases. While a shadow of his former self, we still have at least five more years to watch the greatest hitter of the 2000s pad his career statistics.

Aug 10, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre (29) gets the powerade bath from shortstop Elvis Andrus (1) and second baseman Rougned Odor (12) after their 5-4 victory over the Colorado Rockies at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

Adrian Beltre – 3,000 hits

Adrian Beltre is an ageless wonder. After the 2009 season, most people wondered what happened in the 2004 season. Beltre had been a decidedly average hitter aside from that monster campaign, when he hit what remain career highs of .334 batting average, .388 on base percentage, .629 slugging percentage, 1.017 OPS, 200 hits, 104 runs, 48 home runs and 121 RBI. Seven years later, most people wonder what happened the rest of those seasons.

Beltre had a 105 OPS+ over his first 12 seasons. He was someone you might not even pay attention to in fantasy leagues. His fantastic defense at third base and that one tremendous season led to the Red Sox taking a one-year flyer on Beltre. Over that season and the six that followed with Texas, Beltre posted a 133 OPS+, becoming one of the most fun players to watch in the game. He is now signed through the 2018 season, but it is hard to imagine Beltre not remaining productive into his 40s. It may be a realistic scenario, but baseball without Adrian Beltre is not something one wants to imagine.

Around Memorial Day, Beltre will become the 31st member of the 3,000 hit club, and there doesn’t appear to be an end in sight. While Beltre’s line drive percentage went down in 2016, his fly ball and hard hit percentages jumped up. His doubles totals in his six seasons as a Ranger have been almost comically consistent: 33, 33, 32, 33, 32, 31. Beltre is already the active leader in games played and plate appearances, and his durability even in these later years of his career ensure that he won’t be caught soon.

Even Beltre’s defense remains at an elite level, leading all of baseball with 21 total zone runs at third base. The next closest total in the American League belonged to Juan Uribe. He had eight. By the end of 2018, Beltre will pass Brooks Robinson for most games played at third base and trail only Robinson in assists, double plays turned and total zone runs. Two more seasons even close to the ones he has recently completed will place Beltre comfortably in the top 50 all-time in offensive wins above replacement, in the top 10 all-time in defensive wins above replacement, in the top 25 all-time in wins above replacement for position players and in the top 35 all-time for all players.

The hits keep coming for Adrian Beltre, but his entire body of work, and the joy with which he plays, is something that should continue to be admired for as long as he’s still playing. Let’s hope that’s still a long time coming.

Sep 21, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout (27) hits a three run home run during the fifth inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Mike Trout – 50 WAR

Mike Trout has played five full seasons, and hasn’t even reached his age-25 season yet. Even with all the superlatives thrown his way, it’s outrageous to think about someone reaching career milestones this early, right? Well, don’t forget that Trout might still actually be underappreciated, as he plays for the middling Angels. The BBWAA finally righted the ship this season by naming Trout the AL MVP by a fairly comfortable margin, despite the fact that he played on a 74-win team. By the same logic, Trout should already have five MVP awards to his name.

If he had a better supporting cast, five MVP awards is exactly what Trout would have. Instead, he practices his trade in Anaheim. The Angels have brought in pieces this offseason that could make them competitive, which will only help to bring more spotlight to what might be the best young talent baseball has ever seen.

Trout likely will reach his share of early career milestones this season: 1,000 hits, 200 home runs, 150 steals, 500 walks. However, it is the less concrete wins above replacement that stands out most. One can’t count down to a wins above replacement milestone, because it’s not always a forward progression and because Baseball Reference, Fangraphs, and even Baseball Prospectus have their own versions. Yet regardless of your player valuation system of choice, Trout will reach 50 wins above replacement fairly early in 2017. We will focus on Baseball Reference’s calculations.