MLB 26-and-under power rankings: No. 1 Houston Astros

By Jordan Shusterman
Published

FOX Sports' 26-and-under power rankings are a new spin on the classic prospect rankings. Yes, prospects are important, but with all the game-changing young talent already in the bigs, farm systems alone can’t tell the whole story. So we’re diving deep into every single MLB club, ranking them all by the players in an organization entering their age-26 season or younger — from the bigs to the farm. After six weeks of counting down from last to first, our series concludes today. 

No. 1 Houston Astros
26-and-under total score: 23 (out of 30)

The purpose of this project was to evaluate each organization’s under-27 talent with the idea that the strength of a team’s young core is a strong proxy for the likelihood of competing for a World Series over the next half-decade. With nearly every team’s group of young players, there is almost always a level of uncertainty baked in. The talent — and oftentimes the production — might be obvious for individual players, but can it all coalesce to form the foundation of a championship roster? 

For the Astros, there’s no speculation or projection necessary. We don’t need to contemplate an array of what-ifs or optimistic forecasts of how a hitter or pitcher will improve to maximize their potential and become the best versions of themselves. Paragraphs don’t need to end with hopeful hints at the possibility of a roster coming together to form a legitimate World Series threat.

None of that is required. The proof is in the pudding. We just watched this team win a championship thanks in large part to a tremendous group of U-27 players on both sides of the ball. Yes, of course the Astros had outstanding veteran players who played key roles as well — every World Series team does. But they are not lifting the Commissioner’s Trophy last October without the remarkable performances of Yordan Álvarez, Kyle Tucker, Cristian Javier, Bryan Abreu and, of course, Jeremy Peña — all of whom still qualify for these rankings. Thus, the team that just won it all has also finished atop our 2023 U-27 power rankings. 

Now, it’s no secret that the Astros’ farm system is one of the worst in baseball. The truth is, though, it has been for some time and they keep finding ways to supplement their star-studded roster anyway — particularly on the pitching side. New general manager Dana Brown will now be tasked with nailing some drafts the way he did in Atlanta to help rebuild the franchise's depth at the lower levels. But the core in Houston is so strong that he has plenty of time to focus on those efforts while the big-league team keeps winning. 

Big-league position players: 10 (out of 10)

The title of "best hitter on earth" has been hotly contested in recent years. Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt had moments suggesting the crown was theirs. Juan Soto appeared to be making a strong claim amid Mike Trout’s mounting injuries and still has a strong argument. Aaron Judge just hit 62 home runs. Trout is still Trout. 

But Álvarez, coming off a season in which he posted a non-Judge league-best 187 OPS+ as a 25-year-old, a season in which he had the ninth-best OPS in MLB against left-handed pitching (behind only right-handed hitters), a season in which he delivered three of the most jaw-dropping postseason blasts the game has ever seen? That guy? He’s making a pretty damn good case himself. 

While Álvarez’s hitting heroics have clearly gone mainstream, Tucker’s excellence has officially entered ho-hum mode. No one talks about him. That’s fine. He’s clearly content to continue posting five WAR seasons like he’s posting on Facebook in 2011 what he had for lunch. It’s casual. Don’t mind him. He’s just over there at Minute Maid Park playing Gold Glove defense and contemplating going 30-30 for fun. That’s just Kyle. He plays baseball for the Astros. Ho-hum.

Oh yeah — there’s also the Gold Glove shortstop who just became the ninth player — and first rookie hitter — to win LCS and World Series MVP in the same postseason. He’s also on the Astros. Cool.

Peña’s glow-up from third-round pick out of the University of Maine to ultra-ripped, dinger-launching postseason megastar happened in a relative blink. Sure, he had the big-league bloodlines with his dad, Geronimo, having played parts of seven MLB seasons. But the book on Peña since his days in the America East was consistently that of a glove-first role player, not an impact hitter capable of carrying a team offensively through a postseason, much less his first. Yet here we are — just one year removed from Carlos Correa’s departure in free agency — and shortstop is the least of Houston’s concerns.  

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Despite his legendary October hot streak, there are red flags in Peña’s offensive profile moving forward. With such an outstanding start and finish to his rookie season, it’s easy to forget that he posted a dismal .617 OPS from June 1 through the end of August. He chased pitches out of the strike zone more often than all but three other MLB hitters, which also contributed to a paltry 3.9% walk-rate. Still, an elite defender at shortstop with plus power is one hell of a player — just one that may not reach base often enough to be a consistent offensive force. 

Big-league pitchers: 10 (out of 10)

While fantastic showings from the young hitters got the bulk of the hype (and hardware), let’s not overlook what Houston’s U-27 arms did last October. The headliner performance was Javier’s six spectacular, no-hit innings in Game 4 of the World Series, a fitting finale to his breakout season as baseball’s most unhittable pitcher. But they also may not even get to that point without 10 dominant scoreless outings from Abreu, or Luis Garcia’s five scoreless innings in relief to help defeat the Mariners in the 18-inning ALDS Game 3 marathon. 

Javier has already been rewarded with a five-year, $64 million extension. He’ll look to continue his transition into a bona fide ace from the swingman role he’d been excelling in over his first few seasons. He will go as far as his magic fastball will take him, and if last year was any indication, that could mean an express lane to Cy Young contention.  

Pure stuff-wise, Hunter Brown’s devastating fastball/curveball is more than good enough to fuel a massive 2023 season for the imposing rookie right-hander who carved the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League before a late-season call-up in 2022. The command remains spotty, but this is a profile the Astros have continued to get the most out of and are sure to again. With the right tweaks, he could be as good if not better than any of his fellow young pitchers. But even if he settles into a multi-inning relief role, his ridiculous arsenal should make him a valuable weapon for Houston for years to come. 

Prospect position players: 2 (out of 5)

You won’t find any of them on any top-100 prospect lists, but there is an abundance of intriguing outfielders in this system led by last year’s first-round pick, Drew Gilbert. Gilbert was a polarizing talent and personality for the high-intensity, steamrolling, showboating circus that was the 2022 Tennessee Volunteers baseball team, which dominated the SEC before an early exit in the super regionals. What he lacks in size and physicality, Gilbert makes up for in his explosive athleticism in the box and in the outfield and has a tremendous ability to hit the ball hard in the air. An elbow injury limited his pro debut to just 11 games last year, but he’s an easy breakout pick for 2023. 

Two more outfield bats with intriguing offense potential, Jacob Melton and Ryan Clifford, received the next two highest signing bonuses in last year’s draft after Gilbert. Colin Barber has battled various injuries since signing for $1 million as a fourth-round pick in 2019, but has generally performed well when he’s been on the field. Pedro Leon received a $4 million bonus when he signed out of Cuba in 2021 and was named to the All-Star Futures Game in 2022. Justin Dirden signed as an undrafted free agent following the shortened 2020 draft after putting up monster numbers in college, and has carried that offensive momentum into pro ball, including this spring.

All of those guys are outfielders and will be fighting for the non-Tucker outfield spots in the coming years. 

Though there are concerningly few infield prospects worth noting, Yainer Diaz and Korey Lee are each well-regarded backstop prospects who could contribute as capable backups for Martín Maldonado as soon as this season.

Prospect pitchers: 1 (out of 5)

This is an awfully thin group on paper, though it’s crucial to recall that essentially none of the current excellent Astros rotation were especially revered prospects besides Brown. As such, you won’t see me counting out the likes of J.P. France (14th-round pick in ‘18), Spencer Arrighetti (sixth-round pick in ‘21) or Colton Gordon (eighth-round pick in ‘21) as possible big-league contributors in the near future regardless of what round they were drafted.

If you’re looking for the next unheralded international arm that could blossom into a legitimate MLB weapon à la Framber Valdez or Javier or Garcia, keep an eye on right-handers Misael Tamarez and Miguel Ullola. Tamarez has a great fastball/slider combo and reached Triple-A last year as a 22-year-old, while Ullola’s 38.3% strikeout rate in low-A was fifth-best among all MiLB pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched.

The real wild card here — and incidentally the pitcher who boasted the most significant prospect pedigree at one point — is Forrest Whitley. In 2017, Whitley carved three minor-league levels as a 19-year-old en route to a strikingly similar breakout to what we just watched Andrew Painter have in 2022. He was the next big thing.

Six years and numerous injury and suspension-related derailments later, Whitley is now 25 and has yet to make his MLB debut, but he may actually finally be on the cusp after a promising spring. 

For them to get anything out of him at this point, if even as a reliever, would be a huge win, not to mention quite the story.

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He has covered baseball for his entire adult life, most notably for MLB.com, DAZN and The Ringer. He's a Mariners fan living in the Eastern Time Zone, which means he loves a good 10 p.m. first pitch. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_. 

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