MLB 2022: How extra wild card alters outlook for Blue Jays, Angels, Phillies, more

By Jordan Shusterman
FOX Sports MLB Writer

Amid the excitement of the lockout being lifted, it was easy to overlook the finer details of the CBA in favor of simply being ecstatic that baseball was back. 

But the new agreement consists of several important changes to what MLB will look like in the coming seasons, beyond just the financial infrastructure of the sport. Granted, the bulk of the on-field rule changes won’t be implemented at the big-league level until 2023, but along with the universal DH, the 12-team postseason will change the way baseball functions in 2022. 

So how’s it going to work?

Rather than a single, win-or-go-home wild-card game between the two best non-division winners (aka wild cards) in each league, we will have a wild-card round featuring two best-of-three series. The top two seeds in each league – the two division winners with the best records — will receive a bye and forgo the wild-card round. 

The No. 3 seed — the division winner with the third-best record — will compete in the wild-card round against the newly introduced No. 6 seed in a best-of-three. The No. 4 seed (non-division winner with the best record) will host the No. 5 seed (non-division winner with the second-best record) in the other wild-card series. The higher seeds host all three games, so there is significant incentive for teams competing for these spots to win every possible game in the regular season, even if the division crown is out of reach. 

Clearly, this format will mean more than just two additional teams in the postseason. The new structure will also have a dramatic effect on the narratives surrounding several teams. 

First of all, more teams in the postseason implies that the teams already expected to make the postseason — the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees and Braves, for example — should have even more wiggle room to do exactly that. Indeed, a failure by any of those teams to reach October will be all the more deserving of criticism. 

But let’s set those teams aside — this isn’t about them. The expanded postseason is intended to increase competition and opportunity for the teams in the tiers just below the behemoths we’ve grown accustomed to seeing every October. It’s now a little bit easier for these clubs to gain entry into a tournament that, as we've seen numerous times over the past decade, is as much a crapshoot as any postseason in North American sports. 

You just want to get in; then it’s often about which team gets hot at the right time. So which teams are we talking about? 

Using FanGraphs’ most recent playoff odds as a rough guide, I’ve grouped teams into several tiers related to how the expanded postseason will impact expectations for their 2022 campaigns.

The AL East: Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Rays

One of the most common refrains in the early processing of the expanded postseason field has been the notion that the AL East could fill all three American League wild-card spots. This is hardly unrealistic, as that’s exactly what would have happened a year ago under this format, and each of these teams appears geared up for 2022. 

If some variation of this ends up happening, I won’t be stunned, and it would undeniably be entertaining. The rivalries would surely create some high drama, as they did in last year’s AL wild-card game and division series. 

But outside of Toronto, this wouldn’t exactly bring the fresh batch of postseason faces that many fans are hoping to see in the expanded field. 

The pressure is on: Padres, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays

A year ago, it was all Dodgers and Padres. Are these the two best teams in baseball?! *Sigh* How naive we were. 

This season, the expectations are surely lower for San Diego, but GM AJ Preller still has to be considered on the hot seat after last year’s mess, no matter how many injuries you want to point to. Not having Fernando Tatis Jr. for the first half of the season (at least) is devastating for the Padres, but if Bob Melvin can keep his squad in the mix until Tatis returns, it could set up an exhilarating dash to the postseason down the stretch. 

For the Angels, it goes beyond the fact that fans in Anaheim are desperate to see Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in the postseason. It would be an objectively great thing for baseball if we get to watch more of those two on a bigger stage, but also, it has now been almost a decade since the Halos made the playoffs, and I’m not sure how close they are to changing that. 

Mets owner Steve Cohen has decided to treat the luxury tax as a mere speedbump en route to amassing the highest payroll in baseball, and honestly, we love to see it. Spending big is the easiest way to push your roster into postseason contention, but so much of what has gone wrong with the Mets has had little to do with the actual talent on the field. On paper, New York’s roster is difficult to question. Soit becomes just a matter of what Mets thing will happen to torpedo the season in ways we cannot possibly imagine.

Finally, as the first team out of last year’s AL postseason, the Blue Jays have to feel good about the expanded postseason field. The AL East is going to be a challenge no matter what, but the Jays are now firmly in position to challenge for more than just a wild-card spot. The team is loaded, and they will finally play a full home slate in Toronto after almost two seasons as nomads. If the Jays find themselves barely hanging on for a wild card this year, it would be disappointing. It’s absolutely "go time" in Toronto, and as Vlad Jr. put it himself, last year was just the trailer.

End this drought: Phillies, Mariners, Twins

After coming oh-so-close to reaching the postseason promised land in 2021, the Seattle Mariners will set out once again to end the longest playoff drought in the four major North American sports leagues, with an extra seat at the postseason table now available. In 2021, the Mariners won 90 games with the run-differential (minus-51) of a 76-win team. 

After a busy offseason in which they added reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, two All-Stars in Jesse Winker and Adam Frazier, and the player with the most home runs in MLB the past four years (Eugenio Suarez), this Seattle roster is significantly improved. What’s the 2022 squad’s true talent level? It’s surely better than that of a 76-win team, but I’m not convinced they’re a 90-win team, either. Either way, the extra wild card makes ending the drought that much more conceivable for fans across the Pacific Northwest. 

Speaking of droughts, did you know the Phillies have the second-longest postseason drought in MLB? It has been a rough decade-or-so since Philadelphia’s run of dominance in the NL. For 2022, GM Dave Dombrowski seemingly made sufficient splashes with the signings of Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to supercharge the offense — but acquiring superstars hasn’t been the problem in Philadelphia. 

It’s *gestures broadly* everything else, including the bullpen, defense and depth. It’s often the bottom half of the roster that makes or breaks a postseason team, and the time is now for the Phillies to catapult out of mediocrity and into the upper crust of the NL, where their fans firmly believe they belong.

Last but not least, led by the dynamic duo of Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, Minnesota is looking to flush the disaster that was 2021 and return to the winning ways it showcased not that long ago, when the Twins reached the postseason three times in four years. Then again, none of those postseason appearances or the three that came before in 2010, ‘09 and ‘06 yielded a single victory — hence their inclusion in this category. 

It’s true: The Twins have lost 18 consecutive postseason games. But with an extra wild-card slot up for grabs — and, perhaps even more importantly, a wild-card series — the Twins have a much more realistic path to both return to the postseason and finally win a game, if not *gasp* multiple games this October. 

Uh, the San Francisco Giants?

The 2021 Giants defied preseason expectations and projections more than any other team in preseason projection history, and we’re still trying to figure out how they did it. This time around, FanGraphs pegs them as roughly an 85-win team, which would put them squarely in the wild-card mix with the big-spending NL East squads. 

The Giants’ roster is different enough that I refuse to believe 100 wins is possible again, but I also wouldn’t be remotely surprised if they crush the dreams of other postseason hopefuls once again. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Long shots but not implausible: Marlins, Guardians, Tigers

The Fightin’ Fish spent some real money this offseason in an effort to complement their elite young pitching with some actual offense, but it’ll still be a tall task for them to keep up with their divisional rivals spending double or even triple what Miami does on payroll. If only the Marlins were in the NL Central …

On the AL side, Detroit and Cleveland enter 2022 with similarly long but not impossible playoff odds after vastly different offseasons. Cleveland’s buzzer-beater extension with superstar José Ramírez was a fantastic move but also obviously didn’t make the team any better, and that was about the only move the Guardians made. 

Meanwhile, Detroit spent big on Eduardo Rodriguez and Javier Baez and committed to top prospect Spencer Torkelson, all moves that indicate the Tigers are ready to challenge the White Sox sooner rather than later. Playoff odds suggest it’s a year early to expect too much from Detroit, but there’s clearly something special building in the Motor City. Maybe it’s closer than we realize.

So you’re saying there’s a chance: Royals, Rangers, Reds, Cubs

Normally, once you’re this far down the projected standings, the notion of a playoff berth is a bit too fanciful. But hey, each of these teams enters 2022 with at least a 5% chance of reaching the postseason. Imagine Bobby Witt Jr. immediately becoming an MVP candidate — not just a ROY candidate — and carrying Kansas City back to October. 

Or Marcus Semien and Corey Seager living up the giant contracts they signed in Texas and bringing the Rangers out of the AL West basement. Or Joey Votto continuing his late-30s resurgence and helping the Reds shock the world. Or Frank Schwindel and Patrick Wisdom combining for 70 HRs and Seiya Suzuki winning Rookie of the Year and Marcus Stroman getting Cy Young votes — and the Cubs are suddenly BACK! 

Any of those storylines would be sensationally fun … but they are objectively difficult to fathom. Still, we’re saying there’s a chance!

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball analyst for FOX Sports. He lives in D.C. but is a huge Seattle Mariners fan and loves watching the KBO, which means he doesn't get a lot of sleep. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.