Miami Marlins: Marcell Ozuna taking the next step
Miami Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna is off to another electric start this year, but this time he'll hope to avoid a second-half swoon.
Marcell Ozuna has shown flashes of elite talent throughout his five-year major league career, but the Miami Marlins outfielder has yet to put together a truly consistent season. He came close last year, posting a .307/.360/.533 slash line with 17 home runs and 47 RBI in the first half to earn his first All-Star Game appearance.
However, he hit just .209/.267/.342 after the break while adding only six more homers and 29 RBI to his account. That brought his season line to a respectable but ultimately disappointing .266/.321/.452 (108 OPS+).
Ozuna is off to another torrid start in 2017, and the Marlins hope this one will stick all the way through September. He owns a .322/.385/.563 (154 OPS+) line in 54 games with 14 home runs and 40 RBI. Ozuna leads the team with 2.3 bWAR, ahead of the surprising Justin Bour (1.9) and franchise face Giancarlo Stanton (1.6).
Ozuna has benefited from a .361 BABIP to this point, but he tends to maintain a higher-than-average mark: His career BABIP is .322. Last year he posted a .349 BABIP in the first half before being sunk by a .229 in the second. He'll likely see some regression again as the season continues, though hopefully not nearly as much as in 2016.
The robust home run total has been fueled by a 27.5 percent HR/FB (home run to fly ball) ratio, which is well above what we typically see from Ozuna. His career rate is at 13.8 percent, and you would expect this year's number to come back down over time, which would slow his output. However, Ozuna is already well on his way toward setting a new single-season high. (He knocked 23 homers in 2014 and 2016).
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Michael Beller of Sports Illustrated recently examined how improved plate discipline has helped Ozuna's rise in the early part of 2017. Ozuna is swinging at more pitches than ever – 50.4 percent – but he's swinging at more strikes and fewer pitches outside the zone. His o-swing rate is at 30.7 percent, down from a career mark of 32.9 percent. Meanwhile, Ozuna's z-swing rate is at 75.9 percent, a significant increase from the 67.5 percent rate for his career.
The formula seems to be working quite well for Ozuna, leading to a surge in offensive production. While it's unlikely he'll be able to keep up this pace for the entire campaign, Ozuna stands a good chance of turning in his best season yet if he continues practicing good habits at the plate.
At 26 years old, Ozuna is still a very young player with room to grow. Given his youth, there's reason to be encouraged that his current level of play is more development than mirage. Of course, with Ozuna under team control for two more seasons, the Marlins will need to start thinking about their plans for Ozuna long-term.
FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports that unless Miami turns things around before the trade deadline, a variety of players including Ozuna could be made available. If he maintains his hot streak, this would certainly be an opportunity to sell high and perhaps start rebuilding a barren farm system.
Regardless, Ozuna is going to keep trying to prove he has indeed taken a step forward as a major league ballplayer.
Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.