Mets vs. Braves: Which team has the edge in the NL East?

By Jake Mintz
FOX Sports MLB Writer

Hold on to your butts. The NL East is going to be a ride.

With just a few weeks remaining in the regular season, the Mets are currently one measly half-game up on the Braves. For months now, New York has kept Atlanta at arm’s length, somehow always a handful of games ahead, despite Atlanta’s incredible 30-13 record since the All-Star break. 

But last weekend, the Mets blinked, dropping three straight games to last-place doormats in D.C. and Pittsburgh and allowing the Braves to hop back into the mix.

This is shaping up to be, far and away, the best division race of the season. I mean, if you want to watch a bunch of mediocre teams in the AL Central out-fail one another, I’m not going to yuck your yum, but I’m going to focus on the two high-90-win teams. And with the new playoff format handing a bye to the top two division winners, the incentive to win the division crown is bigger than it has been in years.

Unfortunately, the Braves and Mets face off head-to-head only one more time in the penultimate series of the season. So while that showdown is sure to be a barn burner, the NL East could very well be won before that weekend arrives.

With a month’s worth of baseball left, let’s handicap this matchup as best we can.

Who is hot?

"Everyone in baseball is either hot or due." — Former baseball scribe Sam Miller

Momentum, streakiness, who’s "hot" … most of that is rubbish. Narratives change more often than Léa Kyle. When the Mets took two of three from Los Angeles last week, they were "hot," but when they dropped three in a row over the weekend to the Nats and Pirates, the sky was falling. Things are often much more boring than we wish them to be.

Sure, Atlanta is riding a seven-game winning streak, but that was against bad teams in Colorado, Miami and Oakland. The Braves started the year poorly, dropping 10 of their first 17, but since that 10th loss on April 24, they’ve been three games better than the Mets. Does that constitute a hot streak? Of course not. That’s a dumb question.

You’re only as hot as you feel when you wake up in the morning.

Edge: You. I hope you look in the mirror and feel hot today.

Whom do they play?

Over a full season, strength of schedule, especially between division rivals, means very little. By the end of the year, Atlanta and New York will have played almost identical schedules. But when zooming in to the last few weeks of ball, schedule is a crucial component of who emerges as top dog in the NL East.

Good news for Jerry Seinfeld (who shouldn’t be such a grump, by the way): The Mets have the single easiest remaining schedule in all of baseball, with a current opponents’ winning percentage of .432. Their September includes three games against the last-place Nats, three against the last-place Athletics, four against the last-place Pirates, three against the 22-games-under-.500 Cubs and five against a Marlins team that has scored just 70 runs since Aug. 1. The only other series besides those cakewalks and the showdown with Atlanta is a three-game set in Milwaukee.

Atlanta has a relatively average slate left, with an opponents’ winning percentage of .488. The Braves’ six remaining games against the lowly Nats will be a big boost, but they might find themselves playing some close ones in their seven remaining games with the wild-card-chasing Phillies.

Edge: Mets. It’s an easier schedule. Did you even read what I wrote?

Who is injured?

This is important. For the remainder of the season, these two teams are not the "Braves" and "Mets" as much as they are the current optimal renditions of their respective rosters. You’re only as good as the players you can actually put on the field. 

Here’s who’s banged up for each team:

Max Scherzer, Mets: Heard of him? Yeah, he’s only the highest-paid pitcher ever having yet another remarkable season in his first year with the Mets. Scherzer is currently sidelined due to "left-side irritation," an ailment he went to great lengths to define as minor. But Scherzer’s health, both over the regular season’s final few weeks and into the playoffs, is key for the Mets. Last season with the Dodgers, Scherzer was significantly limited down the stretch due to arm soreness. In 2019, he was a late scratch for Game 5 of the World Series because of back pain. The difference between a Max Scherzer start and a David Peterson start might just be the difference in this division.

Tylor Megill, Mets: Remember him? Through his first six starts of the season, the massive hurler affectionately known as "Big Drip" had a 2.43 ERA in 34 1/3 frames while striking out more than a batter an inning. But then he put up some stinkers, went on the injured list, came back for a bit, then went back on the IL due to a strained shoulder. Megill tossed a scoreless inning for Triple-A Syracuse on Wednesday and should be back in Queens soon. Considering he was throwing 100 as a starter in April, Mr. Drip has the potential to be a real boon for a Mets bullpen with a ton of questions behind Adam Ottavino and Edwin Díaz. 

Starling Marte, Mets: The Mets’ outfielder got drilled on the finger by a 95 mph heater from Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller on Tuesday, resulting in what the team is calling a "partial non-displaced fracture." I’m not a doctor — if I were, do you think I’d be writing about Marte’s finger? — but that seems to be about as minor of a finger break as there is. Thus far, it has been minor enough for the Mets to not put Marte on the IL, but still, he was wearing a splint in the dugout Wednesday.

Luis Guillorme, Mets: The previously thick-bearded utility infielder who fouled off 2,400 pitches that one time in spring training played in his first rehab game Wednesday after almost a month on the IL due to a groin strain. Guillorme isn’t exactly a catalytic offensive player, but he’s valuable defensively and seems like the type of dude who could come up with a clutch knock when you least expect it.

Brett Baty, Mets: The rookie infielder was looking like a late-season boost for the Mets, but he tore a ligament in his thumb and is likely out for the remainder of the regular season.

Ozzie Albies, Braves: The switch-hitting second baseman hasn’t played for the Braves since fracturing his foot back in June, but he has been rehabbing steadily with Triple-A Gwinnett for the past week. A key piece of Atlanta’s 2021 title squad, Albies would be a massive addition to an offense that is already firing on all cylinders. How the Braves choose to reorganize things defensively will be interesting, considering that rookie second baseman Vaughn Grissom has been outstanding thus far.

Mike Soroka, Braves: It has been a long and brutal road for the Canadian righty who, after finishing sixth in NL Cy Young voting as a 21-year-old, hasn’t pitched for the Braves in more than two years thanks to a series of gruesome Achilles injuries. Soroka has made four rehab outings so far, but there’s no real timetable for a big-league return. It’s unclear what type of impact he could have for the big-league club at this point, but if he can offer anything to the Braves, that’d be huge.

Edge: Braves. No matter how much he and the Mets try to downplay things, Scherzer’s injury worries me. Marte’s hazy status only gives Atlanta a greater health advantage over the final month. For the Mets, the vibe is one of concern, while the Braves have been trucking along with this exact roster for months. Anything they get from Albies or a miraculous Soroka return is just icing on the cake.

Who will win the division?

With two teams this close, you can basically pick out any single stat, split or data point and amplify it into a bigger narrative. Predicting things is difficult. Pretending you know the future is for fools.

But I am a fool, so I’ll take Atlanta by a nose hair. I think the Braves are the better team as currently constructed. I think the offense is scary, even though Ronald Acuña Jr. has been underwhelming. I think the emergence of Spencer Strider gives Atlanta a second legitimate ace to pair with Max Fried, even though I would take deGrom and a healthy Scherzer over those two any day. I think Atlanta’s secondary bullpen pieces are better, and I think the last showdown taking place at Truist Park could give the Braves the edge.

Notice how I said "I think" because I sure as heck don’t know, and neither do you. Enjoy the ball.

Jake Mintz, the louder half of @CespedesBBQ, is a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He’s an Orioles fan living in New York City, and thus, he leads a lonely existence most Octobers. If he’s not watching baseball, he’s almost certainly riding his bike. Follow him on Twitter @Jake_Mintz.