Mets should trust Robert Gsellman over Seth Lugo

Gsellman and Lugo have both been great, but one stands out over the other

The Mets are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot. If they do– and advance to the NLDS — things will get interesting with their starting rotation.

Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo have stepped up while filling in for Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz. It’s Gsellman, though, who the team should trust more.

A likely scenario if the Mets make it to the NLDS is Bartolo Colon starting Game 1 in Chicago against the Cubs and Noah Syndergaard starting Game 3 at Citi Field. If that happens, it should be Gsellman who starts Game 2.

A look at some of the numbers on the surface…

A look at some of the deeper numbers…

In addition to the above, Gsellman simply has better stuff than Lugo. Gsellman’s fastball averages 93.7, while Lugo’s averages 92.2, and Gsellman is in the mid-90s with it far more often. Gsellman’s slider is also better than Lugo’s.

The Mets will likely have a steep hill to climb without Matt Harvey, deGrom, and Matz should they advance to the NLDS and beyond. But the presence of Gsellman should help offset that a bit.

And while this doesn’t take anything away from how important Lugo has been, it should be Gsellman who’s ahead of him on the depth chart when it comes to starting important games in October.