Marcus Stroman, Jarred Kelenic among 10 most fascinating starts in MLB

Injuries don’t seem to care about player breakouts. 

A fractured wrist halted Adam Duvall’s power display in Boston. A flexor strain might have ended the season for Jeffrey Springs, who was vital to Tampa Bay’s extraordinary start on the mound. 

Still, look around the league and there are plenty of other surprising top performers and jumps in production worthy of attention. 

These 10 fascinating starts to the season shouldn’t go overlooked:

1. Matt Chapman, Blue Jays third baseman

Stats: .397/.461/.750, 5 HR, 17 RBIs

The three-time Gold Glover’s superb defense at third base gives him a high baseline for production and is a primary reason why he has been, at minimum, a 3-WAR player every season in the big leagues. He has always hit, too, but the offensive output that made him a top-10 MVP finisher in Oakland in 2018 and 2019 wasn’t consistently replicated. 

Now, he’s putting his best offensive years to shame. 

Coming off consecutive 27-homer seasons, Chapman looks like the best hitter in baseball, as he leads the majors with a 1.211 OPS. By wRC+, he is hitting 140% above league average. Those numbers are unsustainable, particularly considering his .468 batting average on balls in play, but the elevated totals aren’t all luck.

He is absolutely mashing the baseball, leading all qualified hitters in barrels per plate appearance and expected slugging percentage. The only person with a higher average exit velocity this year is Joc Pederson. 

There were signs this was possible in 2022, when Chapman raised his hard-hit percentage nearly 10 points, but the numbers this year are berserk. Chapman’s hard-hit percentage (65.4) is better than Aaron Judge’s last year (61.8). The uptick couldn’t have come at a better time for Chapman, who looks like he’ll be the best non-Shohei Ohtani free-agent hitter available this winter. 

2. Jarred Kelenic, Mariners outfielder

Stats: .310/.385/.603, 4 HR, 9 RBIs

It’s happening!

The former top Mariners prospect had a 66 OPS+ and 29.9% strikeout rate his first two years in the majors, but this spring, after revamping his swing and tearing the cover off the ball, there were signs of the breakout coming. Still, it’s one thing to perform in the Cactus League. It’s another to do it in the major leagues. Now, his tools are finally carrying over.  

Kelenic is slugging fastballs at a ridiculous rate — his .771 slugging percentage specifically against fastballs is actually considerably lower than his expected slugging percentage against them (.906). He is whiffing less and chasing less. His overall contact percentage is nearly 10 points higher than it was last year. The only surprise has been his tendency to put the ball on the ground. His average launch angle (6.6 degrees) is down considerably, though the sample size is small. 

3. Jorge Mateo, Orioles shortstop

Stats: .362/.418/.638, 3 HRs, 12 RBIs, 8 SB 

Hello, Jorge. Where did this come from? 

Last year, Mateo hit 19% below league average. This year, he’s up to a 198 OPS+. On an Orioles team that features arguably the top catcher in baseball in Adley Rutschman and an All-Star outfielder in Cedric Mullins, Mateo’s 1.056 OPS leads the group with a number that ranks fifth among all qualified MLB hitters. 

He is mashing both lefties and righties and has already hit a ball harder than he had at any point in his four-year career. In addition, he has cut his strikeout percentage and upped his walk rate by nearly double. Given what he can do once he reaches base, it’s a game-changing start to 2023 for Mateo. 

4. Brandon Lowe, Rays second baseman

Stats: .294/.410/.608, 5 HRs, 13 RBIs 

To understand the Rays’ offensive surge, start at Lowe’s. 

After dealing with back injuries throughout last season, a healthy start to the 2023 season is reminding everyone what the 2019 All-Star can do. He has barreled a fourth of his batted balls thus far, a percentage that ranks third in baseball, and is finding his pull-side power and lifting the ball more than ever before. Lowe has already launched five homers, sending them an average of 407 feet. 

All of that is teaming with a career-best 16.4 walk percentage, helping him reach base at the best rate of his career. And, unlike many of the best hitters thus far, he’s doing all of this with a BABIP that’s not far off his career norm. 

5. Brandon Marsh, Phillies outfielder 

Stats: .356/.424/.712, 3 HRs, 11 RBIs 

From one Brandon to another, Marsh’s offensive surge has given Phillies fans a reason for optimism early this year. The only qualified MLB hitter with a higher OPS than Marsh (1.136) is Chapman. 

Marsh is still striking out more than 30% of the time, and a .514 BABIP is unsustainable, but his barrel rate has nearly doubled from last year. He’s whiffing and chasing less than ever before. In addition, Marsh, who has a career .567 OPS against lefties, is 5-for-16 against them this year. All five hits have gone for extra bases. 

The one-for-one trades of Marsh for Logan O’Hoppe and Luis Arráez for Pablo López have been absolute boons for all teams involved. 

Speaking of which … let’s get to the pitchers. 

6. Pablo López, Twins pitcher

Stats: 1-1, 1.73 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 26 IP, 33 K

Through four starts, López is the American League’s strikeout leader. His .183 expected batting average against is the fourth-best mark in baseball. Opponents are chasing 39.4% of the time and whiffing 34% of the time against him, both career-best marks. 

The Twins had López add a sweeper and ditch his cutter, which was an ineffective pitch for him last year in Miami, and he is reaping the rewards. Opponents are 2-for-18 with nine strikeouts against the pitch, and that’s not even his best offering. By pitch value numbers, López owns the AL’s top changeup — opponents are batting .048 with 10 strikeouts against the pitch. 

López has been the star of a Twins pitching staff on the rise, and Minnesota clearly believes what it sees, already giving López a four-year extension. 

7. Shohei Ohtani, Angels pitcher/designated hitter

Stats: 2-0, 0.86 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 21 IP, 27 K

As the sweeper becomes more common around the league, it may not be a shock to learn that a certain multi-talented player is mastering the pitch. Since last season, Ohtani has thrown more sweepers than any other pitcher, according to Statcast data. In a particularly deep arsenal, it is now his primary pitch and one of the most valuable pitches in baseball in terms of total runs saved. 

It is also still evolving, which is why Ohtani finds himself on this list of interesting starts.  

This year, Ohtani’s sweeper is breaking 3.4 more inches horizontally than it did last season. Meanwhile, his sinker looks a little different too, coming in a few ticks slower and dropping nearly three inches more vertically than it did in 2022. 

Angels catcher Logan O’Hoppe noted earlier this year how impressed he has been at Ohtani’s ability to adjust his pitches mid-outing. He can tweak the velocity and the depth of everything in his repertoire. That experimentation and increase in break could play a part in why Ohtani’s walk rate has nearly tripled through four starts this year. Nearly 21.7% of his total pitches have been sweepers out of the zone, and opponents are swinging at those out-of-zone sweepers 16.9% of the time, down from 21.4% last year. In general, they’re not swinging or chasing against him as much. 

But it’s a small sample size, and the free passes are really the only ding on an otherwise dazzling start. Opponents are batting .091 against him, and he hasn’t allowed a single barreled ball yet. It’s not a surprise to see him performing well, but the level to which he’s doing it and the way in which he’s going about it on the mound are both fascinating. 

8. Marcus Stroman, Cubs pitcher

Stats: 2-1, 0.75 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 24 IP, 25 K 

Like Ohtani, no one has barreled a ball against Stroman. Also like Ohtani, Stroman’s walk rate has jumped this year. Still, it’s gone hand-in-hand with an elevated strikeout rate, leading Stroman to boast the lowest ERA among qualified NL pitchers to begin the 2023 season. 

He has been a beacon of consistency, posting quality starts in each of his first four appearances this year. He didn’t allow a run in three of those four starts. Among pitchers who’ve allowed at least 50 balls in play this year, Stroman’s .261 expected slugging percentage against is the best mark in baseball. 

At a time other pitchers might receive more acclaim, Stroman has quietly remained one of the more reliable pitchers in baseball since his All-Star 2019 season and isn’t demonstrating any signs of slowing down into his early 30s. 

9. Aroldis Chapman, Royals closer

Stats: 0-0. 0.00 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, .087 AVG, 7 IP, 13 K, 1 SV

Over the past four years, Chapman’s ERA resembles a staircase: 2.21, 3.09, 3.36, 4.46. That last number, a career-high figure from 2022 with the Yankees, looked like it might mark the end for the aging flamethrower. To call his exit from the Bronx unceremonious would be an understatement: After skipping a workout, Chapman was left off the playoff roster. 

In Kansas City, though, the now-bearded 35-year-old has dipped into the fountain of youth. His Statcast page is filled with red marks of 99th and 100th percentiles. His numbers both real and expected are astounding. He is striking out 52% of the batters he has faced and has allowed just two hits and two walks over his seven innings. He has also picked up nearly 2 mph on his fastball, now averaging over 99 mph on the pitch. 

All of which is to say, he will likely be pitching somewhere else before the trade deadline arrives this summer. 

10. Graham Ashcraft, Reds pitcher

Stats: 2-0, 1.42 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 19 IP, 17 K 

While a 22.4% strikeout rate may not be one to boast about, it’s notable when considering Ashcraft’s 15.3% rate last year ranked in the league’s bottom 6%. One key is a regripped slider that’s been responsible for 10 of his 17 strikeouts and is holding opponents to a .179 batting average. Ashcraft’s cutter/sinker/slider mix is getting opponents to put the ball on the ground 60.8% of the time, good for the third-highest mark in the majors. 

The future should be brighter than the present in Cincinnati, but a rotation that begins with Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Ashcraft provides a much higher base than most rebuilding franchises. 

Rowan Kavner covers the Dodgers and NL West for FOX Sports. He previously was the Dodgers’ editor of digital and print publications. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner. 

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