How Yankees and Mets compare heading into Subway Series

By Deesha Thosar
FOX Sports MLB Writer

NEW YORK — The last time the Yankees and Mets faced off, less than a month ago at Citi Field, a Subway World Series seemed probable, maybe even inevitable. 

The Yankees strutted into Queens with the best winning percentage (.680) in baseball. The Mets rose to the occasion and extended their division lead by sweeping the Yankees in the two-game set behind Max Scherzer's seven scoreless innings in the finale.

Ever since then, the disco ball in the Yankees' clubhouse has been gathering dust. Someone should check on their locker room smoke machine and strobe lights, too, because it has been weeks since either was put to regular use.

While the Yankees enter Monday having gone 5-15 in their past 20 games, spiraling in an unbelievable free fall while still managing to hold on to their lead in the AL East, the Mets in that same stretch have gone 14-6. Since the Mets swept the Yankees in Flushing, the Yankees have the second-worst record in the American League. The Mets in that span have stayed consistent, winning five of their past six series and appearing more and more like a team that can neutralize the mighty Dodgers.

Make no mistake: The narratives surrounding these crosstown rivals as they enter their second and final Subway Series of 2022 couldn’t be more opposite. The Yankees are regularly getting booed by their frustrated and impatient fan base. The Mets, despite a bout of injuries, are taking care of business behind two of the best pitchers in the game.

But this Subway Series, set to take place Monday and Tuesday in the Bronx, might just provide the jolt the Yankees need right now. Sellout crowd. Playoff atmosphere. Bragging rights of New York. Pennant race. 

With so much on the line, let’s take a look at how the Yankees and Mets compare heading into the interleague matchup.

ROTATION

This one is a no-brainer. The Mets boast a top of the rotation that is performing like the best in baseball. The trio of Jacob deGrom, Scherzer and Chriss Bassitt has recorded a 1.77 ERA (15 earned runs, 76.1 innings pitched) across 12 starts in August. Comparatively, new Yankees right-hander Frankie Montas has allowed 14 earned runs in three starts since being acquired from Oakland.

Gerrit Cole scuffled again Saturday against the Blue Jays, allowing four runs in the fifth inning, which diminished the otherwise positive progress he had made in recent outings. The Yankees' ace has a 3.41 ERA and 1.03 WHIP across 26 starts in what’s shaping up to be an erratic season. On the plus side, Nestor Cortés is flashing a 2.74 ERA in his All-Star season. 

In the big picture, the Mets were without Scherzer and deGrom for a significant portion of the season while Yankees pitchers were rolling. That has led to a marginal difference overall between the two starting staffs; the Mets own a 3.89 ERA, eighth in baseball among starters, while the Yankees are right behind them with a 3.91 ERA, which ranks 10th. 

The upshot is that the Mets' rotation has been more consistently dominant, so the Amazin’s earn the edge here.

Advantage: Mets

OFFENSE

The Yankees' offense has been invisible for several weeks now. Since the All-Star break, Yankees hitters have a 101 wRC+, ranked 17th in the majors. 

By far, August has been their worst month offensively. The Yankees have been shut out five times and have scored just 17 runs in their past eight games — including the eight runs they scored against the Rays in a wild comeback win on Wednesday. Even slugger Aaron Judge hasn’t hit a home run in nine straight games, his longest homerless streak of the season.

A lot of that offensive regression has to do with the absences of Giancarlo Stanton (Achilles tendinitis) and Matt Carpenter (fractured foot). Stanton started a rehab assignment this weekend and should be back in the lineup in less than a week, while Carpenter has not yet begun baseball activities. 

But every team deals with injuries to key players in a long season, and Yankees manager Aaron Boone said the lineup absences are not an excuse for the team's spiritless play. 

"We should be ticked off right now," Boone said Friday after the Yankees were shut out again. "We’re a really good team, and it’s been long enough now where it’s been an extended period of struggle. We need to do better."

What do the Mets do? They grind out at-bats, irritate the opposing starter in the process and eventually reach base any way possible. Hitting coach Eric Chavez’s relentless approach to at-bats has helped the Mets lead the majors in pitches seen in the first inning. They also lead the majors in on-base percentage (.341) and are in the top five in most offensive categories — except for slugging.

Besides Pete Alonso, who has clobbered 30 home runs, the Amazin’s don’t slug. They own the second-lowest strikeout rate in baseball, and they make a ton of ground-ball contact, which accounts for their MLB-leading 115 infield hits. As manager Buck Showalter says of his offense, the Mets have an "unselfish lineup" that is at its best when hitters are disciplined at the plate and putting balls in play. This somewhat old-school approach has worked well all season. 

It would be extremely surprising if the Yankees remain this lifeless at the plate for much longer. When the Bronx Bombers are clicking on all cylinders, as they were at the beginning of the season, they have more power than the Mets and are one of baseball’s best-hitting teams. 

But the Mets improved at the trade deadline by adding slugger Daniel Vogelbach and platoon hitters Darin Ruf and Tyler Naquin to become a more complete club, and right now, they have the advantage over the sleepy Yankees lineup.

Advantage: Mets

BULLPEN

The Yankees' bullpen has been weakened by injuries to Clay Holmes, who is dealing with back spasms, and Michael King, who underwent elbow surgery in late July. Besides the Yankees' offensive woes, their bullpen is the other troubling area of concern, largely due to those injuries but also because former closer Aroldis Chapman has been inconsistent.

There is still time for newcomers Lou Trivino and Scott Effross to earn regular, high-leverage roles in the relief corps. But the strength of the Yankees' bullpen as currently constructed is questionable for the postseason.

Even so, the Yankees have the advantage over the Mets in this department. That might be difficult to believe, given Mets closer Edwin Díaz’s filthy season (1.46 ERA, 0.89 WHIP), but everyone not named Díaz has been unpredictable for the Mets' relief corps.

Seth Lugo has had his moments this year but hasn’t been regularly effective since 2019. Adam Ottavino and his 2.25 ERA in 49 games have been important for the Amazin’s, but he is more efficient in lower-leverage spots than higher ones. Right-handed reliever Mychal Givens, acquired from the Cubs at the trade deadline, has allowed nine earned runs in 7.2 underwhelming innings since joining the Mets.

Pair that instability with Mets GM Billy Eppler’s failure to improve the bullpen before the long-gone trade deadline, and the bridge from deGrom to Díaz is wobbly at best. Over the season, the Yankees' bullpen unit has been the superior one. Yankees relievers own the fourth-best bullpen ERA in MLB, whereas Mets relievers rank ninth. 

Advantage: Yankees

Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets for three-and-a-half seasons as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. She never misses a Rafael Nadal match, no matter what country or time zone he’s playing in. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.