How to rebuild in MLB: Orioles, Pirates, Rangers following these steps

By Jordan Shusterman
FOX Sports MLB Writer

It has become one of the most heavily contested and debated words in sports: rebuilding.

No, we’re not talking about tanking. Truthfully, I’m not that interested in tanking on its own — losing on purpose isn’t all that complicated — though it’s true that losing is often part of the rebuilding process. 

Don’t get me wrong: MLB teams over the past decade have undeniably fielded, shall we say, less than competitive rosters in an effort to acquire better draft picks. But in baseball, rebuilding is a much more complicated process than simply tanking to the bottom and drafting a generational superstar who almost immediately transforms your franchise (hello, Joe Burrow!). 

Constructing a perennial winner from the ground up in Major League Baseball is a daunting task, one that requires a whole lot more than simply losing games and nailing a draft pick. That’s what I want to talk about here.

Granted, some teams never do this style of rebuild. Big-market teams such as the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Dodgers and Angels will never run payrolls low enough to consider bottoming out with an eye toward the future. And on the other end of the spending spectrum, teams such as Oakland, Cleveland and Tampa Bay have become so consistently good at putting competitive teams on the field, regardless of payroll, that they never have a reason to tear it down in full, either.

For almost every other team, though, the wrong combination of factors — a handful of bad free-agent signings, poor trades, ascending divisional competition or just plain bad luck — can have the front office staring this process in the face. 

Now, in a perfect world — and perhaps one that will be more realistic once some of the tanking-incentivized structures in the game are modified with the next CBA — teams wouldn’t be so eager to pursue this process. But as of now, these rebuilds are very much part of MLB and have significantly shaped many teams’ recent pasts and/or short-term future outlooks for better or worse.

Some would argue that the Astros’ early 2010s self-destruction and subsequent ascent to American League domination normalized this process and provided a blueprint for other teams. While there’s no foolproof strategy — and even the smartest teams can make catastrophic mistakes along the way — let’s explore what the steps of rebuilding usually are and examine where teams find themselves in the current competitive landscape.

One caveat: These steps don’t apply perfectly to every rebuild situation, as market size and roster makeup impact the degree to which each step is carried out. For example, high-payroll teams such as the Nationals, who also have Juan Soto on the roster, are in no position to tear it down completely. Rather, Soto’s presence expedites the middle steps of the rebuild process, with hopes of the team returning to contention much more quickly. 

In general, though, you’ll see every rebuilding team go through most or all of these steps to some degree, though sometimes in a slightly different order.

Stage 1: Put it in reverse

The first step of a rebuild almost always involves making a big trade of a star player, signaling the intention to start going in the other direction. These trades are a club’s first opportunity to begin acquiring premium prospects or younger big leaguers, who are more likely to be around the next time the team is good. These trades are often heartbreaking for the fan base, even if it’s obvious what the goal is. 

Some recent examples:

* July 2017: Rangers trade Yu Darvish to the Dodgers 
* August 2017: Tigers trade Justin Verlander to the Astros
* 2017-18 offseason: Marlins trade their entire outfield (Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich) for 12 players
* July 2018: Orioles trade Manny Machado to the Dodgers
* November 2018: Mariners trade Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano to the Mets
* January 2020: Pirates trade Starling Marte to the Diamondbacks

If you aren’t going to trade one of your stars, the other option is to let your star players leave in free agency. Kansas City is the best recent example of this. After winning it all in 2015, the Royals decided to let Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain all walk, which conveniently coincided with Alex Gordon retiring. The Royals opted to keep Salvador Perez for the long haul — good call, by the way — but the rest of the roster descended into full rebuild status, and the Royals have lost 88, 103 and 104 games the past three full seasons.

If you’re reading this thinking, "What about the Cubs? Didn’t they just trade all of their famous players at once?" Yes, in a sense, that was about as rebuild-y of a trade deadline as we’ve seen in a while, especially in conjunction with last winter’s trade of Yu Darvish to San Diego. Granted, the signing of Marcus Stroman might suggest a more expedited return to contention than previously assumed, but the Cubs’ big-league roster still has a ton of holes. 

The Nationals also underwent a similarly dramatic overhaul at the 2021 trade deadline, but as mentioned, as long as Soto is around, it’s difficult to say that they are fully putting it in reverse. Also, in contrast to the Cubs’ bulk acquisitions of mostly teenage players with huge upside who are years away from contributing, Washington acquired RHP Josiah Gray and C Keibert Ruiz in its mega-deal, both of whom should help the big-league club in 2022.

As for other candidates to initiate Stage 1, Oakland is the obvious answer, with ample rumors swirling pre-lockout about the Athletics’ willingness to move Matt Olson or one of their top starting pitchers. They’re certainly no strangers to this process, though the A’s tend to prefer acquiring players who can help at the major-league level and keep the team competitive, even if they do trade some of their bigger stars. 

* Stage 1 in 2021: Cubs, Nationals
* Stage 1 in 2022: Athletics, Reds

Stage 2: Lose — a lot

This is the obvious yet still painful part. As easy as it sometimes can be to identify the need for a rebuild, that doesn’t mean it’s fun to lose 65% of your games over a six-month season. No one involved is having a great time during this part of the process, even though things are going to plan. 

Notably, attendance almost always plummets during Stage 2, and certain fans will swear off a team entirely until there is a more reasonable product on the field. As is their right! Who wants to root for a terrible team that knows it’s going to be terrible?

What's more, there are two things that make this part particularly difficult to stomach in baseball, compared to purposeful cellar-dwelling in other sports. One, the season is way longer. Your favorite rebuilding MLB team might lose more than 100 times in a calendar year. That’s a lot of nights going to bed unhappy.

But what makes it worse is that even if you know a bad record equals a higher draft pick, you can’t easily watch potential future saviors of your team the way you can in other sports. Fans of bad NBA and WNBA teams can watch the best players in college basketball and imagine them dramatically changing a team as soon as next year. Fans of bad NFL teams can watch the quarterbacks competing for the Heisman and dream of their potential. 

As much as I love watching college baseball, it’s simply impossible to watch even the best players with pro potential in the same way as other sports. Not to mention, it takes more than one star to turn things around. Jack Leiter at Vanderbilt in 2021 might have been the surest thing we’ve seen in recent years, but even he didn’t go No. 1 overall, and the Rangers need a whole lot more than Jack Leiter to get back to contention. 

So which teams are currently in the losing stage? It’s primarily Pittsburgh and Baltimore. 

This is also a good time to mention the D-backs, who lost 110 games in 2021. Most rebuilding clubs can anticipate an embarrassing, last-place campaign or two, but this one snuck up on Arizona. That horrible season didn’t seem to be part of their grand plan for contention, even after they traded Paul Goldschmidt. They might now be forced into something more closely resembling a rebuild, but I don’t think we know what direction they are headed just yet, especially as long as Ketel Marte is on the roster. 

* Stage 2 in 2021: Pirates, Orioles
* Stage 2 in 2022: Pirates, Orioles

Stage 3: Crush the draft

Even if the MLB Draft can't guarantee you a franchise-altering player the way the draft can in the NBA or NFL, picking at or near the top is still a considerable advantage under the current system. 

And it’s not just about having a higher pick to get the better players at the top; it’s also about having the most bonus pool money to spread across your draft class, which enables a team to target high-ceiling high school players with higher bonus demands than college players. 

The Pirates executed this strategy to a T in 2021, saving some pool money with college catcher Henry Davis to allow the later selection and signing of three of the highest-ceiling prep players in the class: LHP Anthony Solometo, SS/RHP Bubba Chandler and OF Lonnie White Jr. Drafting high schoolers is always risky, but it typically offers bigger upside, and only teams with the biggest bonus pools have the opportunity to add elite talent in bulk in this manner.

Of course, you still have to get those players right, and that’s tremendously difficult.

Even a team such as Houston, which we look to as a rebuild success story, had some spectacularly bad whiffs at the top of the draft (see: Brady Aiken, Mark Appel). The Astros compensated for that by nailing their other top picks (Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Lance McCullers Jr.), but that just goes to show how fickle this process can be.

The four teams picking at the top in 2022 — Baltimore, Arizona, Texas and Pittsburgh — need to continue adding high-upside talent to their farm systems. Arizona in particular needs to take advantage of a pick that was not expected to be this high, just as it did in 2021 with the seventh overall selection of highly touted shortstop Jordan Lawlar. 

That said, the real X-factor of this stage going forward is whether the new CBA changes the rules surrounding draft order. A lottery system or restrictions on how many years in a row a team can pick in the top five could change teams’ willingness to sink to the bottom of the standings.

* Stage 3 in 2021: Pirates, Tigers, Rangers
* Stage 3 in 2022: D-backs, Cubs, Nationals

Stage 4: Change your culture & start doing smart team things

Teams often need to rebuild because they are behind the curve on a lot of what makes good teams succeed. Catching up in those areas is a necessary part of a successful rebuild. 

Such changes tend to come with a new front-office regime. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Miami, Arizona and Texas have all either hired a new president of baseball operations or added a fresh face to the top of their front-office hierarchy in recent years. New voices often bring in other smart baseball people to help overhaul whatever it is about the team that has been lacking, whether that’s a specific element of player development or a history of poor free-agent and trade acquisitions.

In the Orioles’ case, this means literally signing any players from Latin America, something the organization inexplicably punted on for decades until recently. This is an enormous deal, as it’s no secret that many of baseball’s rising superstars are from that region.  

Having consistent success in the international market is a hallmark of a strong organization, rebuilding or not, and the right superstar arriving at the right time can make a huge impact on a club coming out of a rebuild, as we’ve seen with Vlad Jr. in Toronto and Ronald Acuña Jr. in Atlanta. Julio Rodriguez might make a similar mark on the Mariners in 2022. 

I think this video of Pirates 2021 draft pick Anthony Solometo talking about the other members of the draft class is a good example of this. Sure, the Pirates are terrible at the big-league level, but Solometo is ecstatic to be part of the organization and excited to work his way up with his new teammates and help Pittsburgh become a winner again. 

You’ll see similar sentiments from Orioles prospects who know their fan base is counting on them to bring a winning team back to Baltimore and Mariners prospects who understand the weight of a two-decade playoff drought.

In addition to building from the ground up, it’s crucial that a rebuilding club uncover hidden gems at the big-league level. One of the reasons the teams at the top — particularly the Dodgers, Astros and Rays — are so good is that they turn unheralded minor-leaguers into good big leaguers up and down the roster. 

We know those perennial contenders can do it, but development stories are great signs for rebuilding clubs, who need far more than just the fruits of their highly ranked farm systems to fill out a roster. It’s easy to look at a hoard of top international signings and first-round picks and hope they become All-Stars, but another key to getting back to contention is finding the next Max Muncy or developing an All-Star reliever out of a 27th-round pick or waiver claim.

This idea of organizational culture change also applies to baseball strategy and coaching, whether that means using new technology to help your pitchers improve their arsenals or using defensive shifts for the first time, as the Braves did in 2021.

* Stage 4 in 2021: Mariners, Pirates, Orioles
* Stage 4 in 2022: Rockies

Stage 5: Show signs of life with your young players

Even if you aren’t quite ready to contend, there’s usually a transition year or two, after the dark days at the bottom of the standings, when the core of the next good team begins to form. The top prospects start to arrive at the big-league level and might struggle at first, but those who will be cornerstones on the next good team begin to emerge.

This is also when the fan base starts to realize that the tide has turned, and it’s worth going to the ballpark again to see what’s coming together. Seattle in 2021 was a great example of this, with the Mariners’ late push for the postseason and the debut of Jarred Kelenic. The Blue Jays lost 95 games in 2019, but the debuts of Vlad Jr. and Bo Bichette were clear indicators that it was almost go time. 

I think Kansas City is the best candidate for this stage in 2022, with the imminent debuts of top prospect Bobby Witt Jr. and MiLB HR king MJ Melendez to go with a ton of young pitching, even if the overall roster isn’t ready to compete just yet. 

* Stage 5 in 2021: Mariners, Marlins, Tigers
* Stage 5 in 2022: Royals, Orioles, Pirates

Stage 6: Actually try to be good again

The easiest way to do this is by starting to spend money, which is what Texas, Detroit and Seattle exhibited before this winter’s lockout. Other relatively recent examples include the free-agent signings of Jon Lester in Chicago and Jayson Werth in Washington — moves that signaled to the rest of the league, HEY, WE’RE TRYING AGAIN! Not all of these signings work out, but they're a good way to transition into a window of contention.

The other way is by starting to trade for good big leaguers with a farm system that has improved via high draft picks and previous trades. Seattle is a strong candidate to start dealing from its newfound prospect depth over the next year, as it looks to finally end its playoff drought. 

As for the Rangers, Texas is a good reminder that some of these steps can be skipped with a little thing called money. Most rebuilds focus on establishing a good number of younger players before making an enormous splash via free agency to complete the roster.

But Texas opted this winter to fast-forward to the spending part, which puts the Rangers in an unusual position. Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are undeniable superstars, but this isn’t NBA Jam. Texas' roster depth, particularly on the pitching side, needs a lot of work — and quickly — if the team intends to contend while Semien and Seager are at the peak of their powers. 

Finally, unlike with a lot of current rebuilding teams, the Rangers’ farm system severely lacks star power outside of recent first-round picks Leiter and 3B Josh Jung. The farm depth has improved immensely, but it doesn’t quite resemble some of the loaded minor-league systems that other rebuilders have amassed in recent years. At least, not yet. The Rangers' picking third in 2022 should help those efforts.

The Phillies are another team worth mentioning at this stage. After five straight postseason appearances (and a World Series ring) from 2007 to 2011, they went into the dark days for a while. Only in 2021 did they finally post a winning season after nine straight (!) years at .500 or below. 

The Phillies seemed to be emerging from all the losing with the huge acquisitions of Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler and JT Realmuto — all of whom have been tremendous! — but they've still struggled to sniff a return to October, largely due to shortcomings in the drafting and developing areas of their rebuild. 

Similar to Philly, Cincinnati experienced six straight losing seasons after reaching the postseason three times in four years from 2010 to 2013. The Reds have spent money in recent winters to try to build a contender in the NL Central, only to find themselves stuck around .500. It’s not easy!

* Stage 6 in 2021: Blue Jays
* Stage 6 in 2022: Mariners, Tigers, Rangers, Marlins

Stage 7: Actually become good again

Sometimes the long and winding road back to contention does have a happy ending. It doesn’t always end in a World Series the way it did for Houston or, most recently, Atlanta — a team that, might I remind you, sucked as recently as 2017 — but the light at the end of the rebuilding tunnel is a team that has fully actualized into a legitimate contender, with a balance of talented, homegrown players and veteran stars brought to the organization at the right time. 

Seattle and Detroit might be starting to get there in 2022, and I think Toronto is officially in this stage, despite the tall task of competing in the AL East.

* Stage 7 in 2021: Blue Jays
* Stage 7 in 2022: Blue Jays

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball analyst for FOX Sports. He lives in D.C. but is a huge Seattle Mariners fan and loves watching the KBO, which means he doesn't get a lot of sleep. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.