How the Diamondbacks and Giants became surprise forces in the NL West
The vibes were immaculate in San Diego this spring when Peter Seidler posed a question facetiously: "Do I believe our parade is going to be on land or on water or on both?"
The Padres owner had just been asked about his team's sustainability after signing Xander Bogaerts to a nine-figure deal and extending Yu Darvish for another nine figures. A week later, he'd extend Manny Machado for 11 years and $350 million. His team entered the 2023 season with the third-highest payroll in Major League Baseball, a $250 million mark that led every franchise outside of New York.
He seemed uninterested in debating the merits of the long-term viability of the powerhouse he appeared to be building. Months after his Padres bested the division-winning Dodgers to make it to the National League Championship Series for the first time since 1998, his only fascination was corralling enough pieces to take his group a couple steps further. The time had arrived.
"This year," Seidler said, "is about the world championship."
Four months later, the Padres sit in a distant fourth place in the NL West. They are 37-42 entering Wednesday, 10.5 games back of the division lead.
Everyone expected a dogfight in the division this year between the Padres and Dodgers, who have captured the NL West crown nine of the past 10 years. Instead, both have been snakebitten.
Nearing the halfway mark, it is the upstart Arizona Diamondbacks who have maintained the division lead the entire month. Right behind them are the San Francisco Giants, who have won 12 of their last 14 games to secure second place in one of the most formidable divisions in the sport.
While the Dodgers are on their tails, the Diamondbacks (48-32 entering Tuesday) and Giants (45-34) hold two of the four top records in the National League along with the Braves and Marlins (!), a remarkable feat considering the Padres entered the year with a 55.4% chance to win the West (according to FanGraphs).
So, how is this happening?
How the Diamondbacks got here
It starts with this year's likely NL Rookie of the Year.
In fact, if the season ended now, Corbin Carroll would be in the mix for an even greater honor.
The 22-year-old is hitting 54% better than league average this year while ranking second in the league in steals behind Ronald Acuña Jr. (4.3 fWAR), who's perhaps the only player more deserving of an MVP title than Carroll (3.6 fWAR) as it stands today.
Carroll is likely destined for his first All-Star appearance in his native Seattle. He ranks in the National League's top 10 in runs (60), stolen bases (23) homers (17), doubles (20), triples (3), batting average (.293), slugging percentage (.568) and OPS (.938). He is the complete package that most expected him to be, personifying the style that has lifted Arizona to the top spot in the West.
Perhaps no team has benefited more from MLB's new rules, which favor athletic teams who can unabashedly showcase their speed.
Arizona's 80 steals rank third in baseball and its 86.9% success rate is second.
It's not a coincidence that the Reds and D-backs — two young, athletic teams who have played to their strengths, leading the National League in steals — are now leading their divisions. (The Rays, baseball's best team, are first in the majors with 99 stolen bases.)
There has been some luck involved in the D-backs' success, as well. Their .265 batting average — the third-highest mark in the sport — is 17 points higher than their expected batting average. They are not a team that hits the ball particularly hard or barrels it often, but their discipline is elite and they come through in the clutch, boasting the best OPS in baseball in late/close situations (.929). They also possess the lowest whiff percentage in the majors, they rarely chase out of the zone and their elite speedsters produce constant pressure on a defense.
They have nine players who are league average or faster (27 feet per second) in sprint speed, and the ones who aren't can mostly thump. The D-backs rank sixth in the majors in slugging percentage. They are one of three NL teams with at least five players who've hit double-digit homers — a group that includes newcomer Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who has 11 homers in 68 games after launching just five in 121 games for the Blue Jays last year.
It's been a career year for Christian Walker, who has 16 homers and a 136 OPS+, and Geraldo Perdomo, who's hitting 34% better than league average. Perdomo's .848 OPS is more than 300 points higher than last season (.547).
The D-backs are also enjoying a bounce-back season from 2019 All-Star Ketel Marte, whose .901 OPS is much more reminiscent of his 2021 season (.909) than last year (.727). In Marte, Carroll and Walker, the D-backs boast three of the top 10 qualified NL OPS leaders in June.
Combine all that with a potential Cy Young winner in Zac Gallen — who has been the most valuable pitcher in the National League by fWAR (3.3), is posting the lowest walk rate of his career (5.2%) and leads the NL with a 4.91 K/BB ratio — and you have the ingredients for a major leap forward. After going 74-88 last year, Arizona's .600 winning percentage this season would represent its highest mark over the course of a full year since 2002, when the D-backs went 98-64 (.605) to win the division.
How the Giants got here
Remember how disappointing this offseason felt in San Francisco after missing out on Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa?
That feels like a long time ago now.
Without a clear superstar, a concoction of above-average contributors have the Giants humming. Since dropping to 29-30 on June 4, they've won 16 of their last 20 games. The only team with more wins over that stretch is the Braves.
It starts with an influx of youth.
The Giants haven't had the best track record in the draft of late. Their top pick in 2015, Phil Bickford, is now a Dodgers reliever. Their top pick in 2016, Bryan Reynolds, is a standout outfielder … for the Pirates. Since then, none of Heliot Ramos (2017), Joey Bart (2018) or Hunter Bishop (2019) have met expectations. But the drought looks to have ended with catcher Patrick Bailey, whose tremendous production has been a highlight of the Giants' terrific first half.
The Giants drafted Bailey with their top selection in 2020 despite taking Bart in the first round at the same position two years prior, and the move looks prudent. The switch-hitting catcher has a 138 OPS+ in his first 30 games. He's hitting better as a major-leaguer this year than he did at Single-A in 2022. After slashing .133/.243/.217 in 44 games as a right-handed hitter last year in the minors, Bailey is slashing .414/.452/.793 in 17 games as a righty this year. His offensive production, teamed with elite pop time and framing metrics behind the plate, gives the Giants one of the more intriguing catching prospects in the game.
Add on the production of Luis Matos, who has a .354 OBP in his first 12 major-league games, and this year looks like a win for Giants player development.
Of course, a 45-34 record includes a whole lot more.
Bailey is one of eight different Giants players with an adjusted OPS+ of at least 100 (league average) in 100 or more plate appearances this year, a total surpassed only by the Braves in the National League.
Among the Giants' many offensive contributors, LaMonte Wade Jr. is enjoying a career year, outperforming a breakout 2021 campaign in which he posted an .808 OPS and earned the nickname "Late-Night LaMonte" for his consistently clutch tendencies.
That year seemed like an anomaly for the Giants, whose collection of veterans came together to win a franchise-record 107 games, shocking the Dodgers in the process by capturing the division. While they're not on pace for the same level of production in 2023, they are again defying the odds as a legitimate contender in the West thanks to a complete team effort.
When the Giants get a chance to strike, they typically take advantage. They have the NL's highest OPS with runners in scoring position (.837) and tend to do most of their damage when it matters most, knocking in more runs in the seventh inning or later (138 RBI) than any team in baseball.
The Giants' uncanny ability to extract the most out of their players in recent years, putting them in the best position to succeed, has been on full display this season.
Austin Slater, who has taken 39 of his 65 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers this year, is hitting .400. All 39 of Joc Pederson's starts have come against right-handed pitchers, and he has followed up an All-Star season by hitting 35% better than league average.
The list goes on, from Thairo Estrada — whose 2.8 fWAR trails only Marcus Semien for the highest mark among all major-league second basemen — to Michael Conforto — who leads the team with 12 homers after missing all of last season to injury — to J.D. Davis.
Davis, who looks like a completely different player from the twilight of his Mets career, has played primarily against right-handed pitchers but sports a nearly identical and elite OPS against pitchers of both handedness this year (.844 vs. RHP, .830 vs. LHP).
While the Giants' numbers aren't particularly elite anywhere, they're above average almost everywhere. In the rotation, Logan Webb is posting the highest chase rate and lowest walk rate of his career, while Alex Cobb is enjoying one of the best seasons in his 12-year career. In the bullpen, Camilo Doval is leading a group of San Francisco relievers with the third-best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the bigs.
All combined, the Giants and D-backs are making the NL West arguably the most exciting division race in baseball, putting more pressure on the Padres and Dodgers than anyone could have imagined.
Rowan Kavner covers the Dodgers and NL West for FOX Sports. He previously was the Dodgers’ editor of digital and print publications. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.