Has Houston Astros' Alex Bregman returned to MVP form?

By Jordan Shusterman
FOX Sports MLB Writer

It seems more like a debate you’d have about an NBA star or an NFL quarterback. 

"Is Alex Bregman a top-10 MLB player? Can Alex Bregman be the No. 1 option on a championship team? Is Alex Bregman elite?!"

Fortunately for the Houston Astros, the difference between a good Bregman and a great Bregman probably won’t have a dramatic impact on their place in the standings the rest of the season. This is a team with the best record in the AL that has maintained a double-digit-game lead in the AL West for nearly two months. 

The Astros are a dominant force, and Bregman is just a small part of that — this is baseball, after all. One guy can do only so much.

That said, the trajectory of Bregman’s performance the past five years has puzzled me enough to wonder: Just how good is this guy, exactly?

To be clear, Bregman is very good at baseball. That has been obvious since he stepped on LSU's campus as a freshman 10 years ago. But given how his performance has fluctuated, are we talking about a really good third baseman on a great team, or are we talking about one of the best players in the league?

The second pick in the 2015 MLB Draft, Bregman raced to the big leagues in a flash, playing in just 146 minor-league games before he earned his first call-up in late July 2016. He joined the Astros right as they were ascending to the dominant force they’re known as today, and he has been one of the faces of the franchise ever since.

In 2018 and ‘19, Bregman was one of the best players in baseball. His 16.2 fWAR was not just top among third basemen but also third overall behind some dudes named Mike Trout and Mookie Betts. His WAR was boosted significantly by the fact that he played a considerable amount of shortstop during Carlos Correa’s multiple injury absences, but it wasn’t just about impressive defensive metrics at challenging positions; Bregman’s 162 wRC+ ranked third behind only Trout and Christian Yelich.

He was one of the best hitters in baseball, full stop. He was simply sensational, and at just 25 years old, he was seemingly only getting started.

Since 2019, however, it has been a much different story. Bregman’s 7.0 fWAR ranks eighth among third basemen and nowhere near the top of the MLB leader board. His plate discipline has remained elite, but his power has declined to a stunning degree, as he slugged just .439 the past three seasons, compared to a .561 mark in 2018 and ‘19.

Adding to the mystery is the fact that the majority of Bregman’s underlying metrics have remained steady the past five years. Usually when a player ascends (or descends) to a new level of performance, you can pinpoint something that changed dramatically within his profile. Maybe a guy starts striking out way less or hitting the ball much harder or getting it in the air more often.

But if you looked at only Bregman’s batted ball data or plate discipline metrics over the past five years, it’d be difficult to pick out which seasons were better than others.

* 2018: 13.6% walk rate; 12.1% strikeout rate; 20% chase rate; 88.5% contact rate; 89.4 mph average exit velocity; 7.4% barrel rate; 39.8% hard-hit rate

* 2019: 17.2% walk rate; 12.0% strikeout rate; 18.8% chase rate; 87.0% contact rate; 89.3 mph average exit velocity; 4.6% barrel rate; 37.2% hard-hit rate

* 2020: 13.3% walk rate; 14.4% strikeout rate; 21.1% chase rate; 86.5% contact rate; 88.9 mph average exit velocity; 3.9% barrel rate; 33.6% hard-hit rate

* 2021: 11.0% walk rate; 13.3% strikeout rate; 21.0% chase rate; 87.7% contact rate; 89.0 mph average exit velocity; 6.4% barrel rate; 38.1% hard-hit rate

* 2022: 13.3% walk rate; 12.2% strikeout rate; 20.8% chase rate; 86.1% contact rate; 89.2 mph average exit velocity; 7.6% barrel rate; 38.0% hard-hit rate

Can you tell which season he hit 41 home runs and which one he slugged only .422? If I hadn't told you the years, I’m not so sure you could.

Then there’s Bregman’s postseason résumé, which is a similarly fascinating mixed bag. Playing for the Astros the past seven years has afforded him the opportunity to play a lot of playoff baseball. Bregman has 319 career postseason plate appearances, which is already 17th all time and sixth among active players, behind only Yadier Molina (398), Jose Altuve (363), Albert Pujols (352), Justin Turner (352) and Correa (334). 

He might not catch Derek Jeter’s ridiculous all-time mark of 734 postseason PA’s, but seeing as he’s just 28 years old, Bregman could end up awfully high on that list when it’s all said and done. 

So he has played more playoff baseball than the average bear, but how has he been in that giant October sample? In the division series, he has been sensational, hitting .360/.455/.680 with six homers in 88 plate appearances. 

In the later rounds? Eh, not so much. Of course, he has had his moments — we all remember his walk-off to win Game 5 of the 2017 World Series, one of the most chaotic games in MLB postseason history. 

On the whole, though, Bregman in the ALCS and World Series has been markedly lackluster compared to his LDS dominance. He has hit .167/.323/.222 in 133 ALCS plate appearances and .188/.247/.400 in 89 World Series plate appearances. That does include five Fall Classic dingers, including three against the Nationals in 2019, but Bregman's 2-for-21 in last year's World Series against the Braves, including an 0-for-10 with five strikeouts in three home games, left a sour taste entering the winter.

That brings us to this year. Two superstar campaigns in 2018 and ‘19 were followed by two merely solid seasons in 2020 and ‘21. After finishing second to Trout in 2019 AL MVP voting, Bregman wasn’t even close to any award conversations the past two seasons. So which Bregman would we get in 2022?

The first few months, it wasn’t pretty. In a three-game series at Texas in mid-June, Bregman went 0-for-11, dropping his season line to .214/.331/.363, a slash line hardly befitting a guy batting third for one of the best teams in baseball.

At that point, I was fairly concerned. What happened to this guy? It seemed fair to wonder if we’d ever see the same level of brilliance from him again.

But now, that 0-fer in Arlington looks like the turning point. In his first at-bat of the Astros’ next series against the White Sox, Bregman took Lucas Giolito deep to left field.

Since that Rangers series, Bregman has hit .318/.406/.591 with 12 home runs in 54 games — including two Thursday — raising his season OPS to a much more respectable .839. In that time, he ranks seventh in MLB in both wRC+ (172) and fWAR (2.6). That’s more like it! Bregman’s cold start will still prevent him from returning to the 8-WAR heights he reached in 2018 and ‘19, but he’s starting to look much more like the MVP candidate he was in those seasons.

What’s more, Bregman’s scorching-hot stretch has conveniently coincided with some serious regression from rookie standout Jeremy Peña. Since returning from the injured list following left thumb discomfort on June 26, the shortstop has hit just .212/.236/.353 in 41 games – a far cry from the bona fide Rookie of the Year numbers he put up in the season’s first two months. Bregman has picked up the slack and then some as the Astros have surged past the Yankees for the best record in the AL.

This is part of what makes Houston so dangerous: When a team has that much talent, it’s almost guaranteed to have at least a handful of its best players performing like All-Stars at any given moment. With the initial breakout of Peña and the huge production from established guys such as Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker and Yordan Álvarez, the Astros could afford to have Bregman struggle for two months. Now they are reaping the rewards of his return to form as another important part of their team is struggling.

Bregman’s apparent return to All-Star form has also made me reflect on the extension he signed with Houston back in March 2019. Coming off a 2018 season in which he finished fifth in AL MVP voting, Bregman signed a five-year, $100 million extension that covered all three years of arbitration and two years of free agency. He received a $10 million signing bonus up front, and the deal was backloaded, meaning he would make $11M in 2020-22 and $28.5M in 2023 and ‘24. At the time, it was the third-largest extension ever signed by a player between two and three years of service time, behind only those of Buster Posey and Mike Trout.

Had he not signed the extension, Bregman would’ve hit free agency this coming winter alongside a loaded infield class featuring Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson and — in all likelihood, assuming they opt out of their current contracts — Nolan Arenado, Xander Bogaerts and Correa. Even with his recent resurgence, it’s tough to say where Bregman would rank on the open market relative to those other stars.

As it is, Bregman remains in H-Town and will likely continue to rack up the postseason PA’s over the next three Octobers. He has made it clear since early in his career how much he appreciates playing in Houston, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him in an Astros uniform beyond 2024.

If his recent run of production is any indication, Houston will be more than happy to pay him nearly $30M annually for his next two seasons. More importantly, we’ll all get to watch the best version of Bregman again — a version that’s hopefully here to stay.

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He lives in D.C. but is a huge Seattle Mariners fan and loves watching the KBO, which means he doesn't get a lot of sleep. You can follow him on Twitter at @j_shusterman_.