Goldschmidt, Arenado, Pujols: Why the Cardinals have outplayed projections

By Pedro Moura
FOX Sports MLB Writer

The St. Louis Cardinals have soared ahead of their NL Central competition in recent weeks. After middling play throughout June and July, they carry a sizable, six-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers into play Wednesday, owing to the Brewers' slowdown and their own spectacular August.

The Cardinals won 90 games a year ago, good enough to get them into the wild-card game but no further. They were widely expected to regress this season behind an aging roster. Instead, they are on pace to surpass their 2021 win total.

In fact, their run differential is now in the same realm as those of the standout New York Mets and Atlanta Braves. If the Cardinals keep up this run, it's conceivable they could overtake the NL East winner for the right to a crucial first-round bye in October.

Here are three reasons the Cardinals have so outplayed their projections for this season.

1. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are having career years.

The two veterans are logging by far the best offensive seasons of their careers. In terms of OPS, Goldschmidt has been nearly twice as good as the average major-league hitter and nearly 30% better than in any other year of his career. Relative to his own career, Arenado has been even better. 

Goldschmidt is 10 days from turning 35. Ten days into this season, Arenado turned 31. Both players, relatively recent trade imports, had demonstrated signs of decline in recent seasons. This is not the time you'd expect a shared career year out of two potential Hall of Famers, but it's happening, and they're carrying the Cardinals.

Across the sport, only the Yankees, Braves and Dodgers have scored more runs than the Cardinals this season. It's not because every Cardinals hitter is hitting as hoped; there have been several disappointments, including young outfielders Dylan Carlson and Tyler O'Neill.

It's because of Arenado and Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt's near-1.100 OPS and flirtation with the triple crown after a slow two weeks to start the season could carry a lot of teams into the playoffs. Arenado has cut down his strikeouts to an impressive mark for a power hitter, and better results on his increased balls in play are fueling his success. It helps, too, that both remain elite defenders at the infield corners.

2. Adam Wainwright and Albert Pujols have found the Fountain of Youth.

The two 40-somethings have been far more valuable than anyone could have anticipated.

Wainwright remains the ace of this staff. He is essentially replicating what he did in 2020 and '21, which doesn't sound ridiculous until you remember that he is 41 and in his 17th season with St. Louis. For the seventh time in his career, Wainwright is on pace to surpass 200 innings, a feat maybe three or four other MLB pitchers will match in 2022. His strikeout totals don't look like most of his peers', but they are good enough to get by.

Building on what he accomplished with the Dodgers a year ago, Pujols, returning to his baseball roots at age 42, was a competent Cardinals contributor for this season's first half. He then slowed in June, but since the All-Star break, he has been nothing short of one of the sport's best hitters. As a result, he enters Wednesday just six home runs shy of 700 for his career.

This is still a part-time role, but a part-timer who can crush left-handed pitching is nice to have. Pujols has a 1.231 OPS against lefties this season. Among hitters with at least 100 such plate appearances in 2022, that's second-best in baseball — behind Goldschmidt.

Yadier Molina, who just turned 40 on his shared last hurrah with Wainwright and Pujols, has not been nearly as valuable. But two out of three ain't bad.

3. The Cardinals made effective in-season additions through trades and promotions.

The Cardinals did nothing flashy at the trade deadline, but their targeted efforts to buttress their rotation have already supplied immediate benefits. Left-hander Jordan Montgomery, acquired from the Yankees, has dominated in five starts. Journeyman left-hander José Quintana, most recently with the Pirates, has covered innings at a reasonable rate of success. Relievers JoJo Romero and Chris Stratton have flashed strikeout stuff. 

To get those four, the Cardinals surrendered no one who had been contributing to their team or projects to contribute in years to come, dealing instead from their excess positional depth. St. Louis sent still-injured outfielder Harrison Bader to New York for Montgomery and acquired Romero from Philadelphia in exchange for young infielder Edmundo Sosa, who had disappointed in 2022.

The Cardinals had that positional depth in part because they successfully promoted two rookies to the majors this season. Neither utilityman Brendan Donovan nor second baseman Nolan Gorman cracked the Opening Day roster, but both 2018 draftees have emerged as significant contributors since their arrivals. 

Gorman was a first-round selection; his success is not particularly surprising. But Donovan was a less-heralded seventh-rounder who has been able to sustain his remarkable patience at the highest level. His development is a testament to St. Louis' long-elite player development machine.

Pedro Moura is the national baseball writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the Dodgers for The Athletic, the Angels and Dodgers for the Orange County Register and L.A. Times, and his alma mater, USC, for ESPN Los Angeles. He is the author of "How to Beat a Broken Game." Follow him on Twitter @pedromoura.