Giants get creative; Rangers gamble on pitching; Guardians diversify lineup

By Pedro Moura
Published

Let’s begin a new regular feature wherein we will more closely examine a few recent events within Major League Baseball. This week, we’ll look at the Texas Rangers’ brand-new starting rotation, the San Francisco Giants’ adherence to a contract type in adding pitching depth and the Cleveland Guardians finally departing from their norms in procuring offensive improvements.

The Rangers’ remade, risky rotation 

Not one of Texas’ projected starters was in their organization before November 2021. Their longest-tenured likely starter is Martín Perez, then Jon Gray, then Jake Odorizzi, then Jacob deGrom, then Andrew Heaney. Obviously, none of them are homegrown. Nor did the Rangers follow a formula to acquire each.

They recruited deGrom by simply outbidding everyone else, at $185 million. They recruited Heaney based on proximity, for he is an Oklahoman through and through, and they are the closest team to his Oklahoma City home. Perez they secured via the qualifying offer after a breakout 2022, Odorizzi via a discount trade and Gray as part of their spending spree before last year’s lockout.

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Ben Verlander and Alex Curry discuss the monster five-year, $185 million deal that Jacob deGrom signed with Texas.

Dane Dunning will probably pick up some starts, as well. They acquired him all of 24 months ago, in the Lance Lynn trade with the White Sox. The former first-rounder has pitched like a mediocre fifth starter since he arrived in Texas, but he has at least pitched. That’s the bigger problem for most of the Rangers’ newer starters. Gray is probably their surest bet to log at least 100 effective innings in 2023.

Especially with deGrom and Heaney, the Rangers opted for high-risk, high-reward rotation candidates. Heaney, 31, has made 25 or more starts once in his career. deGrom, 34, has done it four times, but not since 2019. Last year, the two combined to make 25 starts — at a 3.09 ERA. That’s almost the exact season Ross Stripling just had, and he signed for the same two-year, $25-million deal as Heaney, without the incentives that could boost Heaney’s 2024 pay to $20-million if he stays healthy in 2023. Based on last year, the Rangers clearly overpaid.

In free agency, the story goes, teams are supposed to be buying past production. This year, Texas did not do that. Instead, the Rangers are relying on their own calculations of what the more distant past could portend for their new pitchers’ future. It’s not a safe bet, but it’s not impossible to imagine it paying off. DeGrom could win a Cy Young with 25 starts to his name.

Either way, it will be fun to monitor.

The Giants’ starting-pitching signing similarities

San Francisco recently signed two veteran starting pitchers, Stripling and Sean Manaea, to identical two-year, $25-million contracts that feature opt-outs after Year 1. The two traversed vastly different careers to reach this point, as Manaea, a left-hander, was once a hot-shot prospect and Stripling, a right-hander, never had such status. But, in greatly outperforming Manaea last season, Stripling set himself up to more than double his career earnings over the next two years. 

It’s worth noting that the Giants also re-signed Alex Wood last winter on the same contract.

One additionally interesting element of this year’s Giants deals: both include $5 million signing bonuses. Obviously, immediate bonuses are nice, but the function of these bonuses is less about immediacy than you might think. Half of them are due shortly; the other half are due next winter. Their real function is they pay players while they are living at home, and many states’ income tax rates are far, far smaller than California’s.

Stripling, for example, lives in Texas, where there is no state income tax. Compared to California’s 12.3% state rate, plus the rate of 1.5% for nonresidents who work in San Francisco, earning that $5 million while working in Texas could save Stripling hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Such a maneuver, in fact, already saved him even more than that. Before the 2020 season, Stripling signed a $2.1-million contract with the Dodgers to avoid arbitration. Only $600,000 of that was salary. The remaining $1.5 million was a signing bonus, for the same tax-saving purposes. And when the pandemic hit, the bonus had the added benefit of getting Stripling a higher percentage of his 2020 salary than virtually any peers. Where everyone else received only 37% of their salaries, Stripling essentially earned 82% of his.

As of last season, the Padres listed Manaea’s residence as San Francisco, but he does hail from Indiana, where the state income tax is far lower than California.

For the Giants, the two signings give them six established starters. The homegrown Logan Webb currently slots in as the ace. This depth reduces the likelihood they’ll pursue a reunion with Carlos Rodón — as, of course, does their recent agreement with Carlos Correa. 

The Guardians diversify

Cleveland rode a rare offense to the playoffs a year ago, as its team was overwhelmingly contact-oriented and power-deficient. In reconstructing for 2023, the Guardians’ front office opted to add one more contact hitter who has flashed serious power potential, and one hitter, at last, who does not fit the contact profile whatsoever.

First baseman Josh Bell is the former, catcher Mike Zunino the latter. Zunino alone will not transform the Cleveland lineup from contact-focused to strikeout-laden, but he will at least add a little bit of balance. It’s a totally reasonable bet from one of the sport’s most successful front offices. Diversification won’t undermine the Guardians’ strength; it should only allow them to succeed in slightly different ways.

They tried to do this last year, too, with designated hitter Franmil Reyes, one of the few major-leaguers bigger than Bell. But Reyes struck out and didn’t hit for power, and Cleveland cut him a week after the trade deadline. Bell experienced a similar power drought after his deadline trade to San Diego. He did, though, continue to get on base at an above-average rate. He offers more upside and less downside than Cleveland possessed in-house.

For that privilege, the Guardians will pay Bell more than any of their players in 2023 — more than even José Ramírez.

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Pedro Moura is the national baseball writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the Dodgers for The Athletic, the Angels and Dodgers for the Orange County Register and L.A. Times, and his alma mater, USC, for ESPN Los Angeles. He is the author of "How to Beat a Broken Game." Follow him on Twitter at @pedromoura.