Fun with MLB run differentials! (unless you're the Brewers)

By Rob Neyer
Published

For a few years there, I probably harbored an unhealthy and counterproductive obsession with run differential.  Can you really blame me, though? Run differential predicts winning percentage better than winning percentage! Or so I liked to say, anyway; now I can’t actually remember if it’s true (but I’m pretty sure it’s true!).

I’m no longer obsessed, and I consider it a moral victory that I haven’t even mentioned run differential until ... OK, it’s only the 6th of May. But I couldn’t help being intrigued when someone pointed out, Monday morning, that not a single team in the American League East owned a positive run differential. That did change Monday night, when the Blue Jays shut out the Phillies and moved into the positive category. Still, four of five AL East squads are in the red, and the Yankees (-19) sport the second-worst differential in the whole league.

This is worth mentioning, no? While it’s too early to worry about the Yankees or the Red Sox (-6) or the Rays (-7), it’s also worth mentioning that very few great teams begin a season by getting outscored through the first five weeks. It’s also worth mentioning that three projected playoff contenders boast wonderful run differentials: Oakland (+49), Orange County (+31) and Detroit (+29). Do you want to bet against all three reaching the playoffs? I don’t. Do you want to bet on a particular AL East team making it? I don’t.

Of course, the good news is that while only three teams have played well this season, five teams make the playoffs. Somebody’s going to win the East, and a wild card might hail from that division, too. It’s just hard to like anybody, since nobody’s played worth a damn so far.

ALERT: THE LAST FOUR PARAGRAPHS ARE JUST THE LATEST MANIFESTATION OF EAST COAST BIAS. Because, you see, the most interesting run differentials this spring are not those of the AL East. No, for the real action you have to check the NL Central, where -- are you sitting down and holding on to your hats, sports fans? -- the 15-16 Cincinnati Reds have a better differential than the 22-11 Milwaukee Brewers.

I mean, the Reds haven’t been appreciably better. They’re +17 and the Brewers are +16 (and the 17-16 Cardinals are right there with them, at +12). Purely in terms of the fundamental things teams are trying to do, scoring runs while not giving them up, these three teams have been the same. But the Brewers have a five-game lead over the Cardinals, six over the Reds.

How? We keep talking about their pitching! Except they’ve given up 11 more runs than the Cardinals, 13 more than the Reds. It’s not their pitching. Not really. It’s really as simple as this: the Milwaukee Brewers are 12-3 in games decided by one or two runs.

Despite what you might hear on the radio, a team’s record in close games is determined largely by luck, along with a small dollop of relief pitching. As it happens, the Brewers have four relief pitchers having phenomenal seasons: Will Smith, Tyler Thornburg, Zach Duke and especially Francisco Rodriguez, who’s pitching the best baseball in his distinguished career.

Some of these guys will continue to pitch quite well, and some won’t. But the Brewers’ luck in close games will turn, one way or another.

None of this means the Brewers aren’t a good baseball team. Right now, they’re ... actually, I’m not convinced they’re good. Take away these unsustainable things -- by the way, I haven’t even mentioned Carlos Gomez and Mark Reynolds yet -- and they’re just fair. The Brewers have a lovely head start on winning 90-some games. But they’ll need a new formula for the rest of the season, probably something that includes Jean Segura, Aramis Ramirez and Khris Davis hitting a lot better than they have. Because there’s very little help on the way.

There’s always plenty of help over in Senior Baseball Editor Rob Neyer’s Twitter feed.