Four issues that could be key to ending the potential MLB lockout

By Pedro Moura
FOX Sports MLB Writer

Major League Baseball’s collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, after which the league’s owners will almost assuredly usher in a lockout, putting the entire sport on pause until a new agreement is reached.

Speaking to reporters last week at the owners meetings, commissioner Rob Manfred highlighted the difference between a weeks-long lockout that doesn’t alter the 2022 season and a months-long lockout that does.

The latter is the real concern. But ending the lockout will require agreement on several issues on which the two sides have long been far apart. 

So as it inches closer, here’s a look at four of the key issues the two sides will be discussing between now and the deadline — and, very likely, thereafter.

1. Better pay earlier in players’ careers

This century, teams have caught on to the realities of the aging curve and stopped paying players peak salaries past their peaks. The best way to counteract that, players believe, is to pay them closer to those peak rates as they approach their peaks. There are several service-time mechanisms that could bring about the desired change.

Players could become eligible for salary arbitration after two years. Players could reach free agency sooner than after six full years of service. The sport could avoid using service time (and service-time manipulation) altogether and make players eligible for free agency at a certain age.

The players will obviously push for something more like the first two because the last will hinder the most talented of them, who tend to reach free agency in the current system at 26 or 27 and would not want to be tied to their teams at below-market rates until, say, 29 or 29½, two ages that have been rumored as catch-alls.

It’s worth noting that arbitration used to begin after two years of service time. That changed in 1987, as part of a contentious CBA negotiation. To get that win, owners dropped their request to limit arbitration increases to double a player’s previous salary.

A win for the players’ side this time around might require a similar concession. There are a number of potential battlegrounds within this realm. Among the subjects included in the union’s first proposal, according to The Athletic, were minimum salary and luxury-tax threshold increases.

2. Tanking

As super-agent Scott Boras emphasized at the general managers meetings earlier this month, many major-league teams do not appear to be trying to win in 2022. He pegged the number of tanking teams at no fewer than 13, which might be a little high, depending on how the Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians take shape.

Still, the point stands: Something close to a third of teams won’t be strictly pursuing victory next season, and that’s not an abnormal number lately. This hurts players' earning power and, they believe, hurts the sport's ability to attract fans.

How can this be fixed? Oh, Boras has ideas. So does the MLB Players Association. 

A salary floor would help, but no one seems to believe it could be enacted without a corresponding cap, which the players decidedly don’t want. (And many believe they already functionally have in the luxury-tax system.)

The answer might be something that breaks up the ease with which top draft picks can be assembled.

If a team can’t pick in the top five in more than two consecutive seasons, it would behoove them to at least cut short their rebuilding adventure. If the annual draft order were decided by five-year records, that might dissuade executives from embarking on tanking expeditions, knowing a No. 1 pick might not be in the cards, no matter how many games they lose. 

Right now, losing 100 games in back-to-back seasons virtually guarantees a team a future franchise player.

3. Expanded playoffs

You could argue this issue is related to the previous one, and you’d probably be correct. Owners want to expand the number of teams that qualify for the playoffs so that they can broadcast more playoff games each year and reap more funds. Players receive a share of postseason gate receipts, so they, too, would benefit from such an arrangement, albeit not as much as the owners.

It’s unclear if allowing more teams to make the postseason would encourage or discourage more teams to spend. It could work both ways. More 85-win teams might suddenly be one good free-agent acquisition away from becoming contenders, which would drive up the price most free agents could command.

But if postseason dilution means that the advantage that comes with being an elite regular-season team isn’t significant enough, that could discourage 90-win teams from making big additions with the hope of pulling away from their divisional peers. Consider how top teams such as the Dodgers approached the 2020 trade deadline, once they knew it made little difference if they won or lost their division.

Still, because expanded playoffs wouldn’t necessarily be awful for the players, it’s conceivable that this will be approved — so long as the players get something in return. It probably won’t be the 16-team iteration we saw in 2020, but either 12 or 14 seems plausible.

And as long as we’re on the topic of issues that will probably be agreed to, add the universal designated hitter here, too.

4. Pace-of-play rule changes

This is the issue that’s most unrelated to the rest of what the two sides are discussing but also arguably most important to MLB fans. The league has been experimenting across its affiliated levels with a variety of rule changes that could speed up the pace of the ever-longer games.

In order to institute anything for the 2022 season, Manfred will need union approval. Otherwise, he would have to wait until 2023. Both sides agree that changes must be made to the on-field product, so they shouldn't delay making potential improvements.

What could be changed next season? Manfred has recently expressed a desire to ban — or at least legislate against — the defensive shift. Plenty of players would be in favor of such a change. 

A pitch clock could be coming. Base-size increases, making stolen bases easier, might not be far behind. 

And an electronic strike zone? Well, that still seems somewhat far away.

Pedro Moura is the national baseball writer for FOX Sports. He most recently covered the Dodgers for three seasons for The Athletic. Previously, he spent five years covering the Angels and Dodgers for the Orange County Register and L.A. Times. More previously, he covered his alma mater, USC, for ESPNLosAngeles.com. The son of Brazilian immigrants, he grew up in the Southern California suburbs. Follow him on Twitter @pedromoura.