Did the New York Yankees get better this offseason?

By Jake Mintz
FOX Sports MLB Writer

Carlos Correa is not on the New York Yankees. Neither is Trevor Story, Corey Seager or any of the handful of other top free-agent shortstops the Yankees chose not to sign this offseason. 

Coming off another underwhelming season that concluded with a fizzless wild-card game loss at Fenway Park, the most successful organization in baseball history — 27 rings, baby, count ‘em — did not make the flashy splash in free agency that many expected. Instead, the Yankees opted to refurbish their roster through one major trade with the Twins.

And to be clear, the Yanks needed some help. The 2021 team was not the juggernaut many expected, and the 92-70 record last season was actually the product of some phenomenal luck. If you go by Pythagorean record — a useful metric for identifying true team performance by looking at total runs scored and total runs allowed over a season — the Yankees’ true talent level was that of an 86-win team. By that tally, they were the second-luckiest team in baseball, behind the magic-dust Mariners, who outperformed their expected win total by a whopping 14 games.

What’s so weird about the 2021 Yankees is that the overall blah-ness was almost entirely the lineup’s fault. In 2019, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton both missed a ton of time, but the supporting cast of Gary Sánchez, Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu and Brett Gardner stepped up and was dynamite. 

In 2021, the opposite happened: Judge and Stanton were otherworldly good and played more than 135 games together for the first time in a season, but pretty much every other hitter was below average. The result was a lineup that finished 19th in baseball in runs scored, behind Cleveland, Washington and the 73-win Twins.

With the post-lockout transaction frenzy all but over (Michael Conforto is still floating around out there somewhere), it’s a good time to look at the moves the Yankees made this winter to see if they actually got any better.

The payroll

Before we get to the actual names, let’s talk about the payroll. MLB does not have a salary cap, but it does have a luxury-tax threshold. Any team that goes above that dollar amount ($230 million for this season) must pay a tax on the overage. Last season, only the Dodgers and Padres went above that number, though the Yankees did so in 2020 and had done so for 15 consecutive seasons from 2003 to ‘17. 

The Yankees organization is a financial behemoth, recently valued by Forbes at a spine-tingling $6 billion. Given that, it makes sense that many fans were critical of the team’s reluctance to go over the luxury tax. That’s no longer a concern, as the 2022 Yankees payroll is projected to be around the $245 million mark, well over the CBT (competitive balance threshold). 

That jump in spending is due to a combination of two factors.

* The Josh Donaldson trade: We’ll talk about Donaldson as a player in a second, but his $25,750,000 salary for 2022 is a hefty add.

* Rising arbitration salaries: Players gradually make more and more money year by year through the arbitration process before they hit free agency. Notable Yankees arbitration players such as Aaron Judge, Jameson Taillon, Joey Gallo and Jordan Montgomery are all set to get significant raises this season.

Also worth noting: The Yankees have a boatload of money coming off the books after 2022. Judge, Gallo, Taillon, Chad Green, Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman will all be free agents. Luis Severino has a club option. That’s more than $110 million worth of players, and it gives the Yankees a ton of financial flexibility for next offseason, which might explain their hesitance to take on a long-term deal this go-around. 

Nonetheless, the Yankees will indeed be one of four teams, alongside the Dodgers, Mets and Phillies, over the threshold this year.

The ins

Josh Donaldson: Now 36 years old, the 2015 American League MVP isn’t the defender at third base that he once was, but his bat is still up there with the best. By wRC+, Donaldson was the fifth-best hitting third baseman in 2021, ahead of guys such as Manny Machado, Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado. He missed a significant amount of time due to lingering calf and hamstring issues that have plagued him the past few years, but when he was on the field, he raked.

Only three hitters had a higher average exit velocity than Donaldson in 2021: Judge, Stanton and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. That’s superb company. The rub with Donaldson is pretty simple: If he’s healthy, he’s one of the best hitting hot corner guys in the league. He went under the radar the past few seasons because of his injuries and because he was playing in Minnesota, but this is not a hitter who has shown any signs of decline. He’ll be an instant boost to the Yankees’ lineup.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa: While the defensive reviews on Kiner-Falefa are a bit mixed, one thing is clear: He is a shortstop. Last season, the Yankees didn’t really have a capital-S shortstop (shouts out to Andrew Velazquez, though). Gleyber Torres was so brutal at the position that they had to click-and-drag Gio Urshela over from third.

Kiner-Falefa has had a fascinating career path. He was drafted out of a Hawaii high school in 2013, was converted to catcher, made the big leagues, got converted to third base and then was pushed to short by the Rangers after Elvis Andrus left before 2021. He has very little pop in his bat (only eight homers) but makes up for that by hitting for relatively high average and making noise on the bases (20 steals). But above all, he’s a freakin’ shortstop — not Derek Jeter, mind you, but a totally sufficient stopgap until Anthony Volpe is ready.

Ben Rortvedt: The last piece of the Yankees’ trade with Minnesota, Rortvedt is a 24-year-old backup catcher from Wisconsin who struggled in his big-league debut with the Twins last season but has the potential to develop enough power to become a low-end starter. Oh, also, he’s freakin’ yoked.

Anthony Rizzo: The Cubs legend was traded to the Bronx right before the deadline and was good enough down the stretch for the Yankees that the club decided to bring him back on a two-year deal. Rizzo isn’t the face-of-a-franchise catalyst he used to be, but he’s still capable of a good baseball wallop now and again. His pull-heavy lefty swing is a perfect match for Yankee Stadium’s short porch, and he should hit 30 home runs this season if he stays healthy.

Marwin González: It’s bizarre to see González, perhaps the biggest statistical and financial beneficiary of the 2017 Astros trash can orchestra, join the organization that to this day feels the most irked by Houston’s malfeasance. He was brutally bad for the Red Sox down the stretch last season and might not make the team out of camp, but he’s a guy you know, and he can play a few positions, and the Yankees don’t have a ton of lefty bench bat options, so he’s on this list.

The outs

Gary Sánchez: Don’t cry because it’s over; smile because it happened. After a half-decade of homers, errors and unfair backpage headlines about his defense, The Gary Era in the Bronx is officially over. The polarizing catcher has never quite regained the hitting form that earned him down-ballot MVP votes in 2017. Although Sánchez consistently rated high on framing metrics, it’s clear that pitchers did not like throwing to him, and his ball-blocking issues became a real problem. Expect the Yanks to roll with a combination of Kyle Higashioka, Rortvedt and Rob Brantley behind the dish this year.

Gio Urshela: 2019-20 Urshela was a vibe. Considered a glove-first, no-power infielder coming up in Cleveland’s system, the Colombian exploded from out of nowhere into relevance in ‘19, ripping 21 homers with a .314 average in 132 games. The COVID Cup 2020 season was more of the same, but Urshela’s bat unfortunately tailed off in ‘21, and he was dealt to Minnesota with Sánchez. Donaldson is a legitimate step up offensively at the hot corner, but if Urshela can regain his old power stroke with the Twins, this swap might end up pretty even.

Luke Voit: The beefy, burly, big boy bomb-basher led baseball in homers in 2020 but struggled with injuries last season and was sent to the Padres for a pitching prospect after the lockout. Voit was surplus on a Yankees roster with five other infielders (Torres, Donaldson, Kiner-Falefa, LeMahieu and Rizzo) and should get every-day at bats in San Diego. He’ll be a Bronx cult hero forever, though.

Corey Kluber: The veteran hurler threw a freaking no-hitter last season and was pretty solid in limited innings for the Yankees. He signed a one-year deal with Tampa Bay, where he’ll surely discover 20 mph of velocity and win another Cy Young.

Brett Gardner: March has nearly turned to April, and Gardner is still a free agent. The longest tenured Yankee and the only remaining member of the 2009 World Series team has shown interest in returning to the Bronx, but the two sides haven’t gotten a deal done yet. This "will they, won’t they" early spring flirtation has been a common occurrence with Gardner the past few seasons, but it’s starting to look like this might be the end for a Yankees legend.

The 38-year-old was perfectly fine last year, especially in the second half, and would make a totally reasonable bench outfielder for the Yankees. But the team seems content to have the younger, cheaper and speedier Tim Locastro fill that role. Perhaps Gardner is an inevitable Yankee injury away from a reunion, but only time will tell. 

Clint Frazier: The red-headed outfielder with lightning-quick hands was dreadful in 2021 and got straight-up released in the offseason. He has struggled with injuries and been public about his mental health struggles, so hopefully he can rejuvenate his career with the Cubs, with whom he’s set to start every day in the outfield.

The healed

Luis Severino, Aaron Hicks and Tim Locastro all missed significant time in 2021 due to injury but are now set to play significant roles on the 2022 team. 

Severino has thrown just 18 innings since the start of 2019 and has struggled in spring training, but if he can recapture his 2017-18 form, he could give the Yankees’ rotation a huge boost.

Hicks played in just 32 games last year before tearing a tendon in his wrist and missing the rest of the season. He looked healthy in a brief Dominican Winter League stint and should be the Yankees’ starting center fielder on Opening Day. 

Locastro is the fastest human being in baseball, but he tore his ACL while going after a flyball in July and was out the rest of the season. He’ll be the team’s pinch runner and late-game defensive replacement in the outfield.

The verdict

Over the winter, New York got worse at catcher, better at shortstop and potentially significantly better at third base. The rotation took a small step back with Kluber leaving for Tampa, but a full season of healthy Severino would remedy that and then some. The team’s lack of position-player depth — González is not the answer — is a worry and seems like an area that could have been better addressed.

While the Yankees did get better over the winter, their offseason feels more defined by the moves they chose not to make, rather than the moves they did. Donaldson could be a huge addition, or he could get injured. Kiner-Falefa is more of a complementary piece than a game-changer. 

There were no-doubt superstars available on the market, and the Yankees’ opted to more or less run things back with the core that should have won 86 games last year. Perhaps maintaining financial flexibility sets them up better in the long run, and they’ll make a splash next winter, but the team’s commitment to continuity over change this winter might limit the potential for 2022.

Jake Mintz is the louder half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He’s an Orioles fan living in New York City, and thus, he leads a lonely existence most Octobers. If he’s not watching baseball, he’s almost certainly riding his bike. You can follow him on Twitter @Jake_Mintz.