Cubs make their big splash, bringing back Cody Bellinger without the long-term risk

Perhaps, eventually, Cody Bellinger will get his mega-deal.

But it won’t happen this winter. 

Bellinger, the top position player available on the free-agent market, will reportedly return to the Chicago Cubs on a three-year, $80 million contract — well short of the nine-figure pact many expected him to sign. 

It’s not the typical "pillow contract," but with opt-outs available after each of the first two years of the deal, it effectively operates as one. The term first originated with another Scott Boras client, Adrián Beltré, who re-established his value with a one-year, $10 million deal with the Red Sox in 2010. 

Beltré enjoyed his best offensive season in six years and parlayed that into a five-year, $96 million deal with the Rangers. 

That was the hope last year for Bellinger, the former MVP who signed a one-year, $17.5 million contract with the Cubs before the 2023 season after consecutive down years in Los Angeles. Bellinger was non-tendered by the Dodgers last winter, a shocking development for a player who at one point looked like one of the game’s rising young superstars. 

After hitting 39 homers as the National League Rookie of the Year in 2017 and 47 as the NL MVP in 2019, Bellinger’s career took a tailspin. A shoulder injury suffered during the 2020 postseason, followed by a hairline fracture in his leg early in the 2021 season, accelerated the downward spiral. Only two other players with at least 300 plate appearances had a lower OPS than Bellinger in 2021. 

It only got marginally better in 2022, when Bellinger still hit considerably below league average.

Another year removed from his shoulder surgery, the Cubs took a short-term flier hoping to tap back into Bellinger’s early-career potential. Worst-case scenario, they would still have a plus defender for a year. Best-case scenario, they would also have a difference-making offensive talent. 

What they received was a different player than anyone could have anticipated.  

Bellinger enjoyed his best year since his MVP season while featuring a completely different offensive profile from any previous season. He sacrificed power for a more contact-oriented approach. The lowest hard-hit rate of his career also included the highest batting average of his career. Bellinger cut his strikeout rate nearly in half, recording his lowest ever whiff rate, and suddenly thrived against left-handed pitching.  

He finished the year with the sixth-highest batting average and 12th-highest OPS among all qualified major-leaguers. 

It all seemed to be leading to a major payday. Instead, after a prolonged stay on the market, neither Boras nor his client could’ve anticipated the result. 

The change in Bellinger’s approach last season, while leading to wonderful results for the player and his team, also made it difficult to predict what comes next. Considering his diminished exit velocities, his actual stats last season far exceeded his expected numbers. Bellinger’s OPS has started with a different number each of the past five seasons — 1.035 in 2019, .789 in 2020, .542 in 2021, .654 in 2022 and .881 last year. 

Will 2024 look like a continuation of the type of hitter he was last year? Or might he start trying to tap back into the power that made him such an intriguing prospect in the first place — for better or worse? 

Teams were not willing to spend more than $100 million to find out.

It's a common theme this winter, as many teams scale back in spending, at least in some part due to the uncertainty around television deals, and a number of top free agents — a group that includes Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman and reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell — remain unsigned. 

Last free-agent cycle, nine different free agents received nine-figure deals. This winter, that number is currently at three — Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Aaron Nola. 

Bellinger figured to be the fourth, but his market did not materialize as expected. 

It’s a win for the Cubs, who receive the boost their lineup needed after finishing a game out of the postseason last year. After a quiet start to the offseason, they get their free-agent splash without sacrificing long-term risk. 

For Bellinger, it’s essentially a third straight contract year, this time with a potential $50 million in protection over the next two years should it fall off the rails. The structure is reminiscent of what Boras client Carlos Correa took in 2022, when the shortstop signed a three-year deal with the Twins, opted out after the first year, then returned on a $200 million contract. 

Still just 28 years old, another productive season in 2024 could allow Bellinger to cash in the way many expected. 

It just might take longer than anyone would have thought. 

Rowan Kavner covers the Dodgers and NL West for FOX Sports. He previously was the Dodgers’ editor of digital and print publications. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.