Colorado Rockies 2017 Season Preview

Mar 9, 2017; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Colorado Rockies manager Bud Black (left) talks with pitcher Jon Gray against Puerto Rico during a 2017 World Baseball Classic exhibition game at Salt River Fields. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

No matter what a team's expectations are entering a season, each spring brings hope for the fan base. This spring, the Colorado Rockies and their fans had some high hopes of reaching the postseason for the first time since winning 92 games in 2009. Then the injuries started rolling in…

Nationally, the Colorado Rockies generally aren't taken seriously. Last season their new Double-A affiliate, the Hartford Yard Goats, played every game on the road with the construction of their new ballpark hitting delay after delay. Colorado's 75-win season last year was their highest win total since 2010. The thin air at Coors makes their vaunted offense hard to believe or trust.

But this winter things seemed to change a little. The Rockies became everyone's favorite sleeper pick to make a postseason push with what looks to be an upgraded rotation and an improved bullpen, along with additions like a full season from David Dahl from the farm system and Ian Desmond via free agency to help improve inefficiencies from last year's roster. We'll get into some of the additions and subtractions for the club during the offseason here in just a minute, along with what we can expect from the Rox. But first, let's talk injuries.
The duo that is leading the rebuild effort, Dahl and ace Jon Gray, are both in the trainer's room. Dahl has been having back and rib troubles while Gray was pulled from yesterday's start after re-tweaking his foot. Gray's injury seems to be minor and pulling him seemed to be a precautionary measure, but he is a big reason that there has been optimism surrounding the Rockies for the first time in many, many moons.

Dahl and Gray are the big names, but the most serious absence from camp is Chad Bettis, who is continuing his fight against cancer. Bettis has said he hopes to return to the mound for Colorado this season, which should lend some optimism about his overall situation.
Ian Desmond will be out for at least the first month with a fractured left hand, which should add to some of the worry surrounding his production when he returns following a second half swoon in 2016. Added to the infirmary are minor league catcher and the team's number 6 prospect, Tom Murphy, along with rotation hopeful Chris Rusin.
The injury list is long and it has definitely dampened the expectations for this club heading into 2017. Although, if they're able to tread water for a month or two….

Additions

For much of the winter, Ian Desmond was the team's biggest signing, and he should be an upgrade over the smattering of at-bats that went to Mark Reynolds, Ben Paulsen and Stephen Cardullo. The trio combined for a wRC+ of 83 last season, ranking Rockies first basemen 26th in baseball at the dish. In each of the last five seasons Desmond has hit at at least that mark, and in four of the five he has been well above average, which would be at least a 17% boost in production for Colorado at first. Add in his athleticism, and we could see an increase in the defensive production for the team at the position as well–once he returns from injury.

The signing that could surpass the Desmond addition would be the Rockies signing Greg Holland to a win-win deal for both the player and the team. At the very least they will have Holland's services for one season at $6M, but if he appears in 50 games or finishes 30 (not saves necessarily), then he has a $15M option that will vest for 2018. Holland is coming off of Tommy John surgery, so his effectiveness will be in question to start the season, especially in Colorado, but if he's anything close to the pitcher that he was before he went down, the Rockies got a steal of a deal and have greatly improved their relief options.

Mike Dunn was brought in to replace the soon-to-be-mentioned Boone Logan, and this one is another puzzling signing. Logan had been pitching well in Colorado and is somewhat of a known quantity for the Rockies. While Dunn is a year younger, he also put up worse numbers than Logan while taking the mound in a pitcher's park. Both are fastball/slider left-handers, but Logan ended up getting less money to join the Indians than Dunn did to come to Colorado. Part of that may be due to Cleveland coming off a World Series appearance and Colorado being a launching pad. The other part may be that Logan and the Rockies just weren't a fit. It just looks curious all things considered.

The last piece that the Rockies brought in that could have an impact, albeit not necessarily in 2017, was James Farris from the Cubs. After designating Eddie Butler for assignment, the Rockies ended up trading Butler to Chicago for Farris, a 9th round pick back in 2014. The 24-year-old righty made it to Double-A last season and has been a strikeout machine since entering the pros. For his career, he has a 10.7 K/9 rate to go along with a 2.7 BB/9. He may be one of those under-the-radar adds that has an impact later on. We'll see how he fares when he moves to the Rockies affiliate ballparks, which tend to play a lot like Coors.

Jul 22, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Jorge De La Rosa (29) walks off the field during the fifth inning against the Texas Rangers at Coors Field. The Rangers won 10-8. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Subtractions

We already mentioned the loss of Boone Logan, but with the addition of Mike Dunn, that could ultimately end up being a wash for the Rockies with some luck. There are two players that left via free agency–to divisional foes no less–that will hurt for reasons other than production.

The first of those losses is catcher Nick Hundley, who now finds himself in San Francisco with the Giants. While Hundley's production at the plate has been modest over the years, including the last two with Colorado, he is a veteran backstop, and with a projected rotation that is skewing young, a veteran presence putting down signs could go a long way not only to their young staff's development, but also to helping them concentrate on executing rather than calling their own game at this point.

At the same time, the point can be made that having a backstop and his pitching staff grow together could pay dividends too, but my personal preference would be to have someone with more experience calling the shots. Tony Wolters will get the playing time while it looks as though Dustin Garneau will fill in sporadically until Murphy is ready to come up.

The other loss for Colorado will be a sentimental favorite in Jorge De La Rosa. After nearly a decade in Colorado, DLR signed a minor league deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks this offseason. In his time with the Rockies, De La Rosa posted a 4.35 ERA, which all told isn't so bad. The soon-to-be 36-year-old ranks 12th on the franchise leaderboard in bWAR, right behind Andres Galarraga.

Aug 21, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) hits a three run home run in the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Outlook

The Colorado Rockies have already been dealt a crap hand to start the 2017 season. With David Dahl and Ian Desmond out for the beginning of the season, and the status of Jon Gray up in the air for the time being, some of the big parts of the turnaround will be m.i.a. in their attempt to challenge for a wild card spot.

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That all said, two of the three players mentioned are offensive weapons, of which the Rockies have plenty, and Gray's test results have yet to be announced at the time of this writing, so there is a chance he'll be alright for opening day. If that's the case, Colorado may not be out of it quite yet. They can have a high-powered offense without Dahl and/or Desmond–they've done it before–but the reason for the optimism surrounding the club this winter has been because of their pitching staff.

Jon Gray is the centerpiece of that staff, but Tyler Chatwood and Tyler Anderson are solid contributors and we could see contributions from German Marquez, Kyle Freeland or Antonio Senzatela the team's #5, #8 and #10 prospects according to Baseball America. The trio is fighting for the final two spots in the rotation at the moment, and while Freeland has had the best spring to date, he is the one of the three that isn't on the 40-man, meaning moves would have to be made to bring him up to the bigs.

While the injuries to Desmond and Dahl look bad on paper, the Rockies can survive without either or both for short stretches of time. The offense can carry the team for the first month if need be, and with an improved bullpen, more of their leads should remain safe. With Chad Qualls, Jake McGee, Adam Ottavino, Jason Motte and Mike Dunn, the Rockies have five bullpen arms that held an ERA+ over 100 in 2016, and Holland should be another name that can be added to that list.

With some upside in both the rotation and the bullpen to go along with the known commodities in the lineup, the Rockies still have an outside chance at making some noise in 2017. I'm going to optimistically predict them at 84 wins, injuries and all. That may not be enough to quite get them to the promised land, but with an improved National League around them, meaning more losses for everyone, it may be close.