Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers to Play Most Meaningful Series of the Season

Sep 12, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Cleveland Indians right fielder Lonnie Chisenhall (8) hits a double against the Chicago White Sox during the sixth inning at U.S. Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

The Detroit Tigers visit the Cleveland Indians this weekend for a three-game series that will play a huge role in shaping the American League playoff picture.

This is what it’s all about. After a journey that began seven months ago in Goodyear, Arizona, the Cleveland Indians are set to play the most meaningful games the franchise has seen in nearly a decade. The Tribe currently holds a six-game lead in the American League’s Central Division, and the second place Detroit Tigers are visiting Progressive Field this weekend for a three-game series with major playoff implications.

“We’ve got a good lead on [the Tigers],” said second baseman Jason Kipnis after Thursday afternoon’s loss to the Chicago White Sox. “We knew these were going to be the important games down the stretch. Hopefully we can win a series and put them away.”

Putting Detroit away is something that, until this season, was difficult to fathom for Cleveland, which posted a 19-37 record against their Motown rivals in Terry Francona’s first three seasons as manager. But this year, the Indians are 11-1 against the Tigers, outscoring them 79-36, though the two teams have not met since early July.

They will now play seven times in the next two weeks, including the penultimate series of the season in Detroit.

“This is what we work all year for,” said Rajai Davis. “Every game right now means something. We’re looking forward to going out there and playing solid defense, pitching well and have a heckuva an offensive series against Detroit.”

The Tribe is 47-25 at home this season, and 39-21 against Central Division opponents, both numbers that would appear to bode well for them this weekend. With a magic number of 11, a division title is drawing closer, and a series win over the Tigers could all but wrap things up.

Let’s take a look at what you need to know for what should be an electrifying series.

Numbers to Know

Sep 11, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) pitches in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

3.77

Detroit is 32-25 in the second half of the season thus far after having limped into the all-star break at 46-43 and losers of three of four games. A big reason the Tigers have found more success since the break has been the improvement of its pitching staff, which has shaved almost a full run off its collective ERA.

In the first half of the season, the staff for manager Brad Ausmus posted a 4.57 earned run average, 4.60 amongst the starters and 4.53 for the bullpen. Since the all-star break, though, both units have performed better, and the staff as a whole has taken its ERA down to 3.77. In that span, the starters are posting a 3.98 mark, while the bullpen has vastly improved to 3.39.

The explanation for this improvement appears pretty simple, as starting pitchers Michael Fulmer and Justin Verlander have been tremendous in the second half, and the growth of relievers Alex Wilson and Kyle Ryan has helped to stabilize the relief corps.

6.55

Cleveland and Detroit haven’t met on the field since July 6th, so the Indians haven’t seen this improved pitching performance up close. What the Tribe knows is how its hitters knocked Tigers’ pitching around in the 12 games they faced it, roughing up Ausmus’ staff to the tune of a 6.55 earned run average.

As a team, Cleveland has slashed .304/.365/.529 against Detroit this season, with 25 doubles, eight triples, 17 home runs, 79 runs scored, and an OPS+ of 133. Other than a 12-2 loss the last game they played, the Indians have owned Tigers’ pitching in 2016.

All nine of Cleveland’s’ usual everyday players have an OPS+ greater than 100 against Detroit, led by Francisco Lindor’s whopping 179 mark and .364/.415/.636 slash line. The Indians’ offense as a whole has been better in the second half statistically than it was in the first, and if that trend continues, coupled with the club’s dominance of the Tigers so far this year, it could be an extremely high-scoring weekend.

31-32

One of the familiar narratives surrounding Detroit is that, if only the club had won a few more games against Cleveland early in the season, it would be running away with the AL Central for the fifth time in six years. But a closer look at the Tigers’ season suggests that’s not exactly the case.

Entering play this weekend, Detroit is just 31-32 against Central Division opponents. Yes, that includes a 1-11 record against the Indians, but the team is also just 6-10 against Kansas City. Going 7-21 against the two other top teams in your division is not exactly a recipe for walking away with a championship.

In total, the Tigers have scored 281 runs against the Central while yielding 310, good for a -29 run differential. They’ve lost four of their last ten games, and have gone just 6-7 in the month of September, failing to capitalize on opportunities presented when the Tribe has stumbled.

Names to Know

Sep 12, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera (24) hits a home run in the eighth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Verlander

After a 2015 season that saw him limited by injuries and ineffective when on the mound, Verlander is experiencing a renaissance of sorts this year. Once again healthy, Detroit’s ace is 14-8 with a 3.33 ERA in 200 innings covering 30 starts, and has himself back in the Cy Young conversation where he has been a mainstay for a decade.

Verlander has been dominant since the all-star break, going 6-2 with a 2.29 ERA. The 33-year old has limited the opposition to a .186/.231/.355 slash line in that span, good for a miniscule OPS+ of 57, with a 0.871 WHIP and 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. His resurgence, coupled with the emergence of Fulmer, is why the Tigers’ rotation has been much-improved in the second half.

The future Mr. Upton has faced the Indians three times in 2016, though, and is 0-3 in those starts, with a 9.18 ERA and yielding a .304/.368/.652 slash line and 162 OPS+. Among teams Verlander has faced at least 10 times in his career, the Tribe is one of just four that he has a losing record against, going 18-21 in 46 outings with a 4.70 ERA. He has not beaten Cleveland since April 2014.

Miguel Cabrera

It’s pretty much impossible to talk about Detroit without mentioning, over and over, the future Hall of Famer that occupies first base for the club. Now 33 and in his 13th full big league season, Cabrera shows no signs whatsoever of slowing down, and should once again be in the conversation for the MVP award.

All Miggy has done in 2016 is slash .308/.382/.545 with 27 doubles, 33 homers, 91 RBIs, and an OPS+ of 149. And as if that isn’t scary enough, he’s ramped up his production in the second half of the season, posting a .333/.403/.608 slash line and 171 OPS+.

While Cabrera has historically been an Indians killer, though, Tribe pitching has kept him in check this season. In 45 plate appearances, he’s slashing just .205/.289/.205 with only three RBIs and an OPS+ of 46. If Cleveland hopes to find success this weekend, its pitching staff will need to continue that trend and keep Miggy bottled up.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Sep 2, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco (59) throws a pitch against the Miami Marlins during the first inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

For a series with huge playoff implications, there is a postseason quality to the matchups we’ll see between starting pitchers all weekend long, and it begins with Fulmer squaring off against Indians’ ace Corey Kluber on Friday night.

Fulmer is enjoying a rookie season that is arguably the best among pitchers in all of baseball in 2016, posting a 10-6 record with a 2.76 earned run average and an ERA+ of 150 in 143.2 innings of work. He leads rookie starting pitchers in nearly every meaningful statistical category, including wins, ERA, innings pitched, and strikeouts, and is among the league leaders in bWAR for pitchers, in company with the top arms and Cy Young candidates in the game.

One of those arms, of course, is Kluber, who may be the favorite to win the Cy Young this season. Kluber is 16-9 with a 3.05 earned run average in 29 games started covering 197.2 innings, and leads AL pitchers in bWAR, ERA+, FIP, adjusted pitching runs, adjusted pitching wins, base-out runs saved, and situational wins saved, all advanced metrics that attempt to paint a more accurate portrait of a pitcher’s performance independent from the defense behind him and the offense going to bat for him.

Saturday’s matchup is just as impressive, as Verlander will be on the bump against Carlos Carrasco. While Carrasco has had his inconsistencies since the all-star break, there is no arguing he has the stuff of a frontline starter. On the year, the 29-year old is 11-8 with a 3.32 ERA in 146.1 innings of work, good for a 144 ERA+, but he’s been nearly two runs worse ERA-wise in the second half.

The series finale on Sunday afternoon will pit two of the young pitchers with the most potential in all of MLB against each other in Trevor Bauer and Daniel Norris. Norris is one hell of a story, having come back from both offseason surgery for thyroid cancer and an oblique strain suffered in a start against the Tribe in July. In 11 appearances in 2016, the lefty is 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA and an ERA+ of 109.

Much like Carrasco, Bauer has struggled with a Jekyll and Hyde routine since the all-star break, and his last time out was a bit of a microcosm of that. On Tuesday night in Chicago, the 25-year old right-hander allowed just one run on two hits through his first five innings, before being tagged for five more in just a third of an inning in the sixth and being chased from the game. Cleveland will be hoping for Good Trevor to show up against Norris and the Tigers.

If you’re a Tribe fan, this is what you’ve been waiting for. A home series against an archrival with a potential Central Division championship and trip to the postseason hanging in the balance. It’s September, and the Indians and Tigers will be playing the most meaningful games of the season so far this weekend at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario. If you can’t get excited about that, check your pulse, because you may be dead.