Chicago Cubs: Who Will Kyle Schwarber Replace on World Series Roster?

Apr 11, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs left fielder Kyle Schwarber (12) is introduced prior to a game against the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

With Kyle Schwarber most likely earning a roster spot for the World Series, the Chicago Cubs will have to take one man off who was on the NLCS roster. With more than a few options, who exactly will be replaced?

From the NLDS to NLCS, the Cubs made one minor change to the roster. Utility infielder Tommy La Stella was taken off in favor of left handed reliever Rob Zastryzny due to the Dodgers’ struggles against southpaws. As it turned out, Zastryzny did not even play in the six-game series against the LA. Does this mean he is the easy choice to be taken off in favor of Schwarber?

The answer is not so simple, as coach Joe Maddon would ideally like to have an additional left-handed specialist to face off against lefty hitters like Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall and Tyler Naquin.

The Cubs were fortunate to have their starting pitchers go deep into most games, with Jon Lester going six and then seven in his starts, and Kyle Hendricks going five and a third and then seven and a third in his two appearances. If Chicago were to have a game where its starter leaves in the first few innings with a drone induced bloody pinky finger or something, Maddon would like to have as many weapons in the pen as possible.

At the same time, the NL Central Division Champs specialize in versatility, and getting rid of a fielder for Schwarber, who is expected to only hit, could be detrimental to the Cubs’ strategy.

Looking at the team, there appears to be 18 players who are 100 percent safe, leaving seven with varying degrees of risk to be replaced. With rosters being announced on Tuesday at 10 a.m., let’s take a look at all of the possible players that were on the CS roster that may be left off the WS team due to the addition of Schwarber.

Oct 11, 2016; San Francisco, CA, USA; Chicago Cubs relief pitcher Justin Grimm (52) delivers a pitch during the fifth inning of game four of the 2016 NLDS playoff baseball game against the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Reliever: Rob Zastryznzy or Justin Grimm

We start with the most obvious, as the lefty proved to be replaceable with zero appearances in the Championship Series.

At the same time, Zastryzny was very effective in his handful of appearances in the regular season, pitching 16 innings of 1.13 ERA ball. His combination of proven effectiveness, and unique anonymity, as none of the Indians players has ever faced him in the MLB, make him an intriguing option for the roster.

Fellow lefty Mike Montgomery is often used for long situations, and star closer Aroldis Chapman usually only throws in the 8th or 9th inning. That leaves Travis Wood as the only lefty out of the pen that would likely be used in a specialist situation. Depending on how much the Cubs decision makers value these specialty situations, Zastryzny could be put on the roster.

What the team will look at is how Indians starters fare against left handed pitching. Looking at the results, the outlook is not promising to the Cubs’ rookie lefty.

Kipnis is the only everyday starter out of the group, and his splits this year are minimal. His career, however, tells another story. He did benefit from a .354 BABIP against lefties in 2016, compared to a .313 career mark, perhaps signaling he was the beneficiary of some luck this year against same handed pitching.

Chisenhall and Naquin also have noticeable differences between their hitting against righties and southpaws, but the splits are far from crazy. Even if they were, Terry Francona has shown that he will use Rajai Davis (.780 career OPS vs. LHP) against righties even if he has to replace Chisenhall or Naquin.

Chances of Zastryzny being replaced: 75%

Justin Grimm is another possible option for a replacement, but he will most likely be kept after a hot second half. After appearing only once in the CS, in a 6-0 Dodgers blowout, it seems Grimm is not trusted to pitch late in games. At the same time, the righty had a stellar 2.08 ERA in his final 33 regular season relief appearances, making his spot on the roster virtually a lock.

Chances of Grimm being replaced: 1.5%

Sep 26, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Chicago Cubs center fielder Albert Almora Jr. (5) hits an RBI single against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the sixth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Outfielder: Albert Almora, Jason Heyward or Jorge Soler

A pick that would come as a slight surprise, Almora has not seen his struggles highlighted like those of fellow outfielder Jason Heyward. While Almora is only a rookie, his 0-9 in the postseason has not helped anyone. He did receive the start ahead of Heyward against Clayton Kershaw in game six, but Almora failed to perform. 

He can still provide value with his defense, but provided Jason Heyward is kept on the roster, Almora as a defensive replacement may not be necessary.

Possibly the center fielder of the future, the 22-year-old was above average in the regular season with a .277/.308/.455 slash. His defense in center was very useful when Dexter Fowler was on the Disabled List, but he may not have enough experience in right or left to be worth a roster spot as a defensive replacement.  

Chances of Almora being replaced: 8%

Heyward would be a much more shocking pick as having a player making $23 million left off a World Series roster would be downright comical. It is highly doubtful that this will happen. Even as bad as Heyward has been at the plate, and he has been bad, he still plays tremendous defense in the outfield.

In an accomplishment that he may not be particularly proud of, Heyward became the first outfielder to slug below .330 and still accumulate at least 1.5 Wins Above Replacement since Juan Pierre in 2010. Pierre accumulated much of his value from his league-leading 68 steals, while Heyward relied on his defense since he only swiped 11 bags.

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This makes his fielding all the more impressive, and everything else all the more worse. Either way, expect his roster spot to be safe and for him to continue starting against right handed pitchers (all Indians starters) most of the time.

Chances of Heyward being replaced: 1%

Jorge Soler is the final pure outfielder on the bubble, as he has failed to produce in the postseason, going 0-8 with two walks. He has only received one start and has been used mostly as a pinch hitter due to his fielding liabilities. He should be kept on the roster due to his power potential as a DH if Schwarber proves unready to return to prominence.

Chances of Soler being replaced: 7.5%

Oct 15, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs pinch hitter Miguel Montero (47) hits a grand slam against the Los Angeles Dodgers and celebrates with right fielder Jason Heyward (left), left fielder Chris Coghlan (8) and left fielder Ben Zobrist (right) during the eighth inning of game one of the 2016 NLCS playoff baseball series at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports

Other: Chris Coghlan or Miguel Montero

Both of these players will most likely be kept on the roster but are worth mentioning as possibilities to be taken off. Montero provides little value as the third catcher, but did have a huge grand slam in game one of the NLCS.

The former Diamondback catcher is mostly kept around as Jake Arrieta’s catcher, but with Arrieta struggling a bit, it is fair to question how much their partnership is helping. Though Arrieta struggled mightily with Willson Contreras as his catcher (5.18 ERA), the 2015 Cy Young award winner pitched to a 1.32 ERA in four games with David Ross. Still, it is doubtful the veteran will be left off the roster, and he will most likely continue to get starts whenever Arrieta takes the hill.

Chances of Montero being replaced: 2%

Chris Coghlan is another interesting case, but his versatility would seem to guarantee him his spot. Joe Maddon is a big fan of the former Rookie of the Year, and the team likes him enough to have had traded for him and sent a productive Tommy La Stella down because of the deal. We won’t go into what happened after this with La Stella, but Coghlan returned to his 2015 productivity after a horrid stretch in Oakland.

The utility man is 0-4 with a walk in the playoffs, and was also only 1-12 in the postseason in 2015. That being said, he is the only Cubs bench player capable of playing the infield and outfield, and as a left-handed hitter he will most likely be kept on the roster.

Chances of Coghlan being replaced: 5%

Sep 29, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Chicago Cubs right fielder Matt Szczur (20) runs the bases against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the second inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Other Possible Additions: Jason Hammel, Tommy La Stella, Matt Szczur

Though Kyle Schwarber will likely be added to the team, that does not mean he will be the only addition. With the bench struggling as a whole, there could be some more changes on the horizon. After all, the team has three players who are more than capable big leaguers that were not on the CS roster. 

Tommy La Stella was on the division series roster and could be an option as a left handed bat off the bench in the World Series. With the majority of Indians pitchers being righties, Cubs management may want as many lefty bats off the bench as possible, and La Stella could benefit.

If the team wants an even bigger shakeup, the man with a famous bat, Matt Szczur, could be added. With Coghlan, Soler, and Almora a combined 0-21 in the playoffs, perhaps all three of them could be dropped and Szczur could be given a chance.

The outfielder was an extremely important part of the Cubs’ success, as he appeared in 101 games, more than all three aforementioned struggling players.

The final wild card to consider is starter Jason Hammel. His inclusion seems unlikely, but he did have a productive regular season. If Chicago wants to add another pitcher capable of throwing multiple innings at a time, the fifth starter could very well be considered.

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