Can Castellanos, Schwarber help Phillies end playoff drought?

By Jordan Shusterman
FOX Sports MLB Writer

CLEARWATER, Fla. — When Ryan Howard grounded out to end Game 5 of the 2011 NLDS vs. the St. Louis Cardinals, it immediately felt like the end of a chapter of Philadelphia Phillies history.

The franchise had enjoyed five straight NL East titles, two World Series appearances and an iconic core of players that the Philly faithful would revere forever. But then, as Howard crumbled to the ground, having torn his Achilles running out of the box, it felt like a cruel but loud and clear sign from the baseball gods: The Phillies' days as a National League powerhouse were officially behind them.

It was time to rebuild.

What we didn’t know, however, was how long it would take the Phillies to return to powerhouse status. More than a decade removed from Howard’s groundout, we’re still waiting for it to happen.

The descent from the glory of the 2008 World Series title was gradual. Each subsequent year, the Phillies were eliminated one round earlier: a World Series loss in 2009 to the Yankees, an NLCS loss to the Giants in 2010, an NLDS loss to the Cardinals in 2011. 

Much of the 2011 squad that won 102 games returned in 2012, only to go 81-81, the worst Phillies record since 2002. Six consecutive losing seasons followed.

Finally, last year, Philadelphia had its first winning season since 2011 — by the slimmest of margins, going 82-80.

No, this isn’t a Cubs or Red Sox or even Cleveland-esque curse in which multiple generations of fans have waited for their team to finally achieve postseason glory. Plenty of other fan bases would surely love to have had a run of excellence — including a World Series title — as recently as 15 years ago. But the decade-long drought without playoff baseball in Philadelphia is, remarkably, the second-longest active drought in MLB, behind only Seattle’s 21-year Octoberless streak. 

And for all the money that has been spent and for all the superstars the team has assembled — particularly in the past half-decade — the fact that the Phillies have yet to even sniff a return to October baseball is downright shocking.

So, the obvious question: Is this the year the Phillies finally return to the postseason?

It just might be.

A little more than two weeks out from Opening Day, it’s pretty clear what the 2022 Phillies’ main strength will be. They are going to hit the snot out of the baseball. Adding notorious sluggers Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber to a lineup that already included defending NL MVP Bryce Harper, big bopper Rhys Hoskins and an elite hitting catcher in J.T. Realmuto is a delicious recipe for a whole lotta run-scorin’.

The starting pitching depth? The bullpen? The defense? These all remain enormous questions. 

On a backfield before the team's game Tuesday against the Tigers, Phillies manager Joe Girardi looked on as infield coach Bobby Dickerson ran some high-energy drills with a group that included shortstop Didi Gregorius, second baseman Jean Segura and first baseman Hoskins. Everyone was in good spirits as they put in the work, with Dickerson eagerly encouraging the players as they scooped ball after ball on a variety of tough hops. It was hardly anything out of the ordinary, but it was difficult to watch without thinking how crucial it will be for every member of the lineup to maximize his ability on the defensive side of the ball.

It will certainly help to have two legit aces in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, who can produce whiffs at a rate that won’t require the defense to do much work on their start days. 

Of course, the outfield defense is of much greater concern on paper with the additions of Castellanos and Schwarber, only one of whom can regularly DH while the other mans left field. This is in an outfield that already features a below-average fielder in Harper in right and, as it currently stands, a rookie in Matt Vierling in center field, platooning with Odubel Herrera. 

Vierling doesn’t boast the upper-minors track record or prospect pedigree of some other young players competing for jobs in camps across MLB. But the vibe in Clearwater is that the 25-year-old has a real shot of winning the center-field job, which would be a remarkable opportunity for the former fifth-round pick out of Notre Dame. Vierling is a good athlete who has played center a lot in his career, but he's known more for his bat than his defensive chops, so he could be another below-average glove for the Phillies. 

That said, Girardi can take comfort in knowing that he has at least one elite defender in Realmuto behind the dish. The 2019 Gold Glove winner will surely continue to help the pitching staff and limit opposing base-stealers. But being below average defensively at arguably all seven other positions could present a real challenge in the run-prevention department this season.

In addition to adding sluggers, upgrading the bullpen was a clear priority this offseason. While the 2021 relief unit wasn’t nearly the catastrophe that the ‘20 bullpen was, you certainly wouldn’t call it a strength of the team. So Philadelphia signed Corey Knebel, Brad Hand and Jeurys Familia, all of whom have lengthy track records of big-league success, albeit without much consistency in recent years. 

Hand and Familia both threw scoreless innings in the Phillies’ 7-2 victory over Detroit on Tuesday, but it was the right-hander who followed them in the fourth who really caught everyone’s attention: 27-year-old Seranthony Domínguez.

Domínguez looked especially sharp considering that it was his spring debut, as he touched 97 mph with an excellent slider in striking out the side. He was regularly touching triple digits in 2018 and '19 before Tommy John surgery in July 2020 shut him down for the shortened season and nearly all of 2021. Domínguez looks noticeably slimmer this spring, having reportedly lost more than 30 pounds since the end of last season. 

The Phillies’ bullpen is now full of famous relief names, but Domínguez could be just as good, if not better, than all of them. Girardi raved about him postgame, calling him a "huge piece" if he gets back to where he was before surgery.

Having younger, less established players such as Domínguez step up and contribute could very well be the key to the Phillies finally getting over the playoff hump. Many teams would love to have a star-studded top of the roster with All-Star-level performers such as Harper and Wheeler, but postseason teams are often made in the middle and bottom of the roster, where players you don't necessarily count on end up playing huge roles in support of the stars.

If Domínguez and Vierling can play above expectations this season, it could make the difference in what is sure to be a messy and crowded NL East race.

A lot has been made (rightfully) about how frustrating it has been to watch the Angels fail to build a winner around Mike Trout. The Angels’ seven-year postseason drought is tied with Detroit's for third-longest in MLB, and Anaheim remains arguably in a worse position than Philadelphia to break through. 

But it’s time to acknowledge that we’ve yet to see Bryce Harper — a generational talent in his own right — in a League Championship Series, let alone the Fall Classic. He had a few memorable postseason moments with the Nationals, but none yet with the team he’s committed to for another decade.

Just as the Angels owe it to Trout to put him back on the October stage, the Phillies must build a contender around their MVP so we can all witness his unparalleled baseball showmanship when the games matter most.

Harper, the phenom who graced the cover of Sports Illustrated when he was just 16 years old, turns 30 on Oct. 16. Because his teams have never advanced far enough, he has never played a game on his birthday. 

It’s about time that changes. 

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball analyst for FOX Sports. He lives in D.C. but is a huge Seattle Mariners fan and loves watching the KBO, which means he doesn't get a lot of sleep. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.