Boston Red Sox: Should the Team Be Concerned with Craig Kimbrel?
Craig Kimbrel has been on of the league’s most dominant closers over the past several years, but the power right-hander is struggling with the playoffs set to begin this week. How concerned should the Boston Red Sox be?
September was a great month for the Boston Red Sox. After going 19-8, which featured an 11-game winning streak, everything seemed to be clicking for a team that finished in the cellar of the AL East in 2015. However, this is clearly a much improved ballclub that is increasingly looking like the favorite to win the ALCS. In fact, in an article from Jayson Stark of ESPN in which surveyed 25 baseball executives about the postseason, 16 of them picked the Red Sox to reach the World Series. They were also the second most popular World Series winner prediction, finishing with six votes, just one vote behind the Chicago Cubs. It’s easy to see why many people around baseball are bullish on Boston’s chances in the postseason.
Looking at the roster, there really isn’t any clear holes. The Red Sox lineup is stacked from top to bottom with two MVP candidates in Mookie Betts and David Ortiz along with many other excellent hitters both young and old. Dustin Pedroia hit for over .300 this season, Hanley Ramirez has been on a tear for the past month and this doesn’t even include young all stars Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr.
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For the first part of the regular season, the Red Sox pitching was scrutinized as highly priced free agent pickup David Price was not performing up to expectations and Steven Wright and Eduardo Rodriguez were both injured for a fair amount of time at some point of 2016 as well. Now their starting rotation is looking much more like a strength than a weakness.
Rick Porcello is the odds on favorite to win the American League Cy Young award. David Price, while he didn’t have the best season, has pitched more like the David Price we’ve grown accustomed to since the all star break. Eduardo Rodriguez and even Clay Buchholz have given the Red Sox some good innings over the past month. It isn’t the best rotation in the American League, but it is still more than capable of leading the team to another World Series.
This brings us to the one area where I do have some concern, and it’s really more about just one player. When the Red Sox dealt two of their better prospects for Craig Kimbrel this past offseason, they thought they were getting a guy that would make games into eight inning affairs. However, while he hasn’t been bad, he just hasn’t lived up to what Dave Dombrowski thought he was getting when he made the move to acquire the all star reliever.
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Kimbrel finished this season with an ERA of 3.40 and a high walk rate of 5.1 per nine innings. He is striking out hitters at a high rate of 14.1/9 IP, but when games are close, giving up that many free passes can make closing out wins much more difficult. Yes, the 28 year-old closer does have an amazing track record, the only problem is that he’s never allowed more than 3.8 walks per nine innings at any point of his career. This makes his struggles in recent days that much more perplexing. Things seemed to be looking up for Kimbrel as he did not allow an earned run from August 13 to September 22. However, in his past four appearances he’s allowed six earned runs, giving up at least one run in three of those outings.
As a pitcher that relies on his high 90s heater and wipeout slider, if Kimbrel remains in the strike zone, he’s nearly unhittable. But if the power righty is struggling with his control like he has in the past week or so, then it should not give Red Sox manager John Farrell much confidence in his ability to secure victories in close games.
At this point, it’s reasonable to ask how much of a hold Kimbrel has on the closer’s spot. With set up man Koji Uehara not allowing a run since returning from the disabled list, Farrell has another guy that he can turn to if Kimbrel continues to struggle locating his pitches. However, the Red Sox skipper stuck by his current closer in the comments he made to Christopher Smith of MassLive.com about whether he would switch his relief pitchers roles.
“Not at this moment,” Farrell said. “And Koji wasn’t available today. We’re monitoring the number of pitches thrown in a defined period of time. And he was unavailable. So at this moment, no.”
There is a reason that the Red Sox traded for a premier closer. They wanted stability in the late innings, especially in postseason baseball. I still expect Kimbrel to get the ball if a save situation were to arise against the Cleveland Indians. But there may just be a much shorter leash than one might have expected coming into the year.
So while there should be concern over Kimbrel’s recent performance, his stuff is still dominant and if his control is good, than opposing teams don’t have much of a chance. If his pitch location continues to be an issue, don’t be surprised of Farrell turns to Uehara in the ninth inning. Boston has all the ingredients to be a winner, they just need their closer to return to what he once was. Look for Kimbrel to be the biggest question mark that the Red Sox have for this entire postseason.
How long of a leash should the Red Sox give Kimbrel? Share your thoughts in the comments below.