Boston Red Sox pitchers: Who will trend up or down?

Oct 2, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale (49) pitches against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning at U.S. Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Red Sox have a wealth of pitching – maybe the best in the American League. There are a few that I am predicting will trend up or down.

Who will surprise and who will fail or trend up or down – pitching department? I usually grab a copy of Bill James’ projections and thumb through it. Historically, I find it somewhat like astrology – fun to read, but don’t take it seriously. I will also do my own projections based simply on pulling an opinion out of the air. This is hunch prognostication and not based on any proprietary math. Just something for the offseason hot stove guessing game.

Pitching is the driver of a baseball team’s success or failure and that is set in baseball since, but even stone has the occasional crack or two. Occasionally a team surfaces that can overcome pedestrian levels of pitching either by bludgeoning opponents or favorable circumstances where the opposition within their division of the league is equally inept. That should certainly not be Boston’s problem in 2017.

On paper – a gentle way of saying what should be – the Red Sox have a range of talented arms with an impressive history to back it up. David Price and Chris Sale are beyond just good and certainly can have the honorarium of “Ace” attached to their career performances. One would expect that to continue.

There are, however, a few that may trend down or up and I have – to ease my boredom – placed a few into this slide show. occasionally I do this and then in a year check back and see what is inevitably mixed results.

October 6, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Rick Porcello (22) throws in the third inning against the Cleveland Indians during game one of the 2016 ALDS playoff baseball game at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

I do have some doubts that circulate and give me a certain level of pitching angst. The first is the reigning Cy Young Award winner in Rick Porcello. Porcello’s 2016 season is clearly an “I (we) didn’t see that coming” year. The rehash of his accomplishments both statistically and as a pitching door stop is exceptionally impressive. Was is an anomaly?

Statistical anomalies occur often in baseball where a player has a remarkable season squeezed in somewhere between just average or below average seasons. My favorite was in the first expansion year of 1961 when the Tigers Norm Cash won the American League batting title hitting .361. The next season Cash hit .243 and never came close to .300 in a 17-year career.

There is nothing in Porcello’s pitching background to show what we saw is what we will get for the duration of a contract that now seems team friendly and not cumbersome as once expected. I can see a pullback in Porcello. Not the disaster of 2015, but more in line with 2014 or even a touch of 2013.

This is what Porcello always was – a competent middle of the rotation pitcher who gave you innings and games of varying quality – putrid to dominant. Collectively it translates to your basic .500 pitcher whose ERA or FIP or xFIP all fall into the range of 4.00 – excellent if you are being graded for a class, but average if you are being graded as a pitcher.

Even a Porcello trend back would not be tragic. Porcello is gritty, an inning eater, highly competitive and apparently has the pitching mechanics that promote longevity. The Red Sox expected a solid lower-end of the rotation pitcher and had a 2016 surprise. Back to what he was projected to be for the 2017 season.

Oct 10, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Joe Kelly (56) delivers a pitch in the sixth inning against the Cleveland Indians during game three of the 2016 ALDS playoff baseball series at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

There are certain things in life I simply cannot grasp, such as the proper way to load up a dishwasher. My spouse will give a daily refresher course in this inability to comprehend a basic domestic chore and I constantly fail the final examine. This is my lead into Joe Kelly, who I find as mysterious as that dishwasher. If a talent is based just on physical ability than Kelly would be the Ferrari of pitchers.

This unfortunate Joe has rarely put up the consistency that matches his incredible potential. Last season, or at least the September portion, Kelly was just deadly in his small sample of 11 innings. A 0.64 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP is attention-getting. Has Kelly finally turned a pitching corner?

As with Clay Buchholz this path has been walked many times with a wavering between just what one may get for a performance. At 28-years-old I finally expect Kelly to have a consistent performance of exceptional quality. Expect Kelly to be the real deal – finally.

Jun 29, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Heath Hembree (37) walks back to the dugout during the seventh inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Boston Red Sox 4-0. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The alt-Kelly’s is also in the bullpen and – like Kelly – have a calling card that is a fastball and that is Heath Hembree and Matt Barnes. Hembree does not have the velocity (93.5) that Kelly possesses (96.7) nor does he get that ever fortuitous ground ball (33.7% career) and his ERA (2.65) may be misleading in comparison to his xFIP (4.36), but that will certainly not stop me for there is something there that I like.

Hembree will not be a significant bullpen piece and I am realist enough to recognize that. The numbers game with arms and the fact that Barnes may have the inside track could make Hembree expendable. What will happen – if Hembree sticks – is some important contributions that will be vital. Just a hunch, but I find it difficult to give up on a pitcher who was once quite valued by the Giants – an organization that knows pitching.

Barnes was a number one draft pick and maybe patience with his development will win out? Last season Barnes appeared in 62 games and registered 16 holds – if you place any credence in that statistical gem.

Barnes throws hard (96.6/2016) and that results in a very attractive K/9 of 9.59, but like far too many young pitchers Barnes has a wee bit of location issues with a BB/9 of 4.19. Barnes also gave up 62 hits in his 66.2 innings and that when combined with 31 walks explains a matching ERA and xFIP of 4.05. This season I expect the consistency to appear.

Oct 10, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Drew Pomeranz (31) leaves the game in the sixth inning against the Cleveland Indians during game three of the 2016 ALDS playoff baseball series at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Pitching disasters come in two forms – one is right-handed and the other left-handed. Boston has one from the left-hand side in Drew Pomeranz. Pomeranz is relatively new to the starting gig and the price Boston paid was their number one pitching prospect. So far I am not impressed.