Boston Red Sox: An in-depth analysis of buying the Chris Sale deal
Despite initial disappointment regarding the Boston Red Sox acquiring Chris Sale, I have reversed field and provide reasons for doing so.
Initially, I was very disappointed with dealing away Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech for Chris Sale. The reasons for such feelings are numerous.
First, Sale’s ability to circumvent a major elbow or shoulder injury, due to his seemingly perilous pitching mechanics, has always perplexed me. Sale’s slender frame and the torque generated by his high-elbow release point appear to render a significant arm injury more than simply likely, but rather inevitable.
Second, I do not recall him being as dominant last season as in season’s past. Sure enough, upon checking fangrahs.com, his average fastball velocity had declined from 94.5 mph in 2015 to 93.0 mph in 2016. Initially, I perceived such a decline in velocity as a potential precursor to the significant arm injury that I still maintain is inevitable.
However, upon closer examination of the velocity readings throughout his career, I do not see an inclination of declining velocity. Of course, last year may be the first year of such a trend; however, it may also be the result of the greatest pitching workload of his career, 226.2 IP.
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Third, while Moncada looked atrocious at the plate in his 19 September at-bats, striking out twelve times, including his final nine, he still was the minor league player of the year. One has to believe that he has struggled in the past and has been able to make the requisite adjustments for success.
Fourth, Kopech is a stud pitcher who is not that far from the majors, reaches triple digits on the radar gun with regularity, and draws comparisons to the New York Mets’ Noah Syndergaard.
After the dust settled and most of my concerns have been ameliorated, I have progressed through a complete 180. I am very excited to have Chris Sale as a member of the Boston Red Sox.
Of course, there is always the chance that five years from now, Yoan Moncada becomes the next Robinson Cano, and Michael Kopech becomes the next Syndergaard, but there remains no substitute for young, proven Major League talent; none of which were we required to part with in order to attain a known, proven quantity in Sale.
It should not be lost that we were able to acquire a front-line starting pitcher without relinquishing any of our young, proven Major League talent; we still have Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, and Benintendi. In addition, Dave Dombrowski’s task is to bring a Major League Championship to the city of Boston, not a AAA title to the city of Pawtucket, Rhode Island.
In a December 7, 2016 article by ESPN Senior Writer Jason Stark, he expresses two very poignant thoughts that helped me view this deal in a more favorable light. First, with respect to Dombrowski dealing away many of our prized prospects, Stark declares, “But you should also think of what Dombrowski did this way: He controls Sale and Porcello for the next three years, Price for the next six years and most of his best young position players for the next three to five years. So where were all of his hot prospects going to play anyhow?”
Second, Stark mentions a phrase with which I had previously been unfamiliar, “Flags Fly Forever,” in reference to championship banners. If Dombrowski’s efforts result in a World Title, nobody will give a rat’s rear end about the prospects relinquished in order to accomplish such a feat.
It should be pointed out that Sale’s career statistics against all AL East teams not from Boston are truly remarkable. In 39 appearances, of which 25 are starts, Sale has pitched 187 innings while producing an ERA of 2.60. His won-loss record is composed of 14 victories against only nine defeats. He has a Strikeout Rate of 28.2%, and a Walk Rate of just 7.6%. Finally, he has allowed a career slash line of .187/.280/.332 to the “offensive juggernauts” of the AL East.
In addition, this success is not from the distant past; in 2016, Sale went 6-0 with a 1.55 ERA against our division rivals.
Furthermore, although the Yankees of New York do not figure to be relevant this season, Sale has dominated them over his career; in 53.2 IP, he is 4-1 with a 1.17 ERA, while striking out 61 batters and walking only 12 batters.
Lastly, Sale will be under Red Sox control for the next three seasons, and will cost the Red Sox a total of $38-million. Who could ask for anything more?