2021 MLB playoffs: Round-by-round expert picks
And then there were 10.
Following a captivating end to the regular season, with playoff positioning going down to the final day, the MLB postseason field is complete.
The American League's top seed, the Tampa Bay Rays, will await the wild-card matchup between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox to find out their playoff opponent, while the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox will go toe-to-toe in the other AL Divisional Series.
In the National League, the San Francisco Giants will keep a close eye on the St. Louis Cardinals taking on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL wild card, and the Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves will get down to business in the NLDS.
With so much to keep track of, our baseball experts have made their picks, all the way to which teams they think will lift the trophy when all is said and done.
Here is how Jake Mintz, Pedro Moura, Jordan Schusterman and Ben Verlander see the postseason shaking out, complete with some betting information courtesy of FOX Bet (odds as of 8 p.m. ET Sunday).
AL WILD CARD
Yankees vs. Red Sox – 8:08 p.m. ET Tuesday, ESPN
Jake's pick: Yankees
Pedro's pick: Red Sox
Jordan's pick: Red Sox
Ben's pick: Yankees
Odds to win World Series ahead of wild-card round:
Yankees: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Red Sox +2200 (Bet $10 to win $230 total)
Pedro's take: The Red Sox have home-field advantage in this sure-to-be-wild wild-card game and that should prove pretty valuable. There are reasons to expect them to be eliminated Tuesday: They haven’t been very good in the second half, and Gerrit Cole is a bigger name and probably a better pitcher than Nathan Eovaldi. But both teams have seen a lot of the opposing pitcher this season, and Eovaldi has more successfully stymied the Yankees than Cole has the Red Sox. Plus, Boston has the more balanced lineup.
NL WILD CARD
Cardinals vs. Dodgers – 8:10 p.m. ET Wednesday, TBS
Jake's pick: Dodgers
Pedro's pick: Dodgers
Jordan's pick: Dodgers
Ben's pick: Cardinals
Odds to win World Series ahead of wild-card round:
Dodgers: +320 (bet $10 to win $42 total)
Cardinals: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Ben's take: There's nothing I love more in October than watching a super-hot team grab a wild-card spot and continue its hot stretch into the playoffs. The Cardinals are the hottest team on the planet the past few weeks, and they have every bit enough talent to go into L.A. and beat the Dodgers in a one-game playoff. We’ve seen it so many times since the wild card was implemented in 1995. Look no further than two years ago, when the Nationals got hot, snuck into the playoffs and went on to win the World Series. The Cardinals themselves accomplished the feat in 2011. I foresee the Cardinals knocking out the entire NL West before losing to the Brew Crew in the NLCS.
AL DIVISION SERIES
White Sox vs. Astros (Game 1: Thursday)
Jake's pick: White Sox
Pedro's pick: Astros
Jordan's pick: Astros
Ben's pick: White Sox
TBD vs. Rays (Game 1: Thursday)
Jake's pick: Rays
Pedro's pick: Rays
Jordan's pick: Rays
Ben's pick: Rays
Odds to win World Series ahead of wild-card round:
Astros: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
Rays: +550 (bet $10 to win $65 total)
White Sox: +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total)
Jake's take: I’ll admit, I was skeptical on the Rays all year, despite their running away with the stacked AL East. The lack of a reliable starting pitcher had me worried. Then they changed completely my mind.
The way Tampa rolled into Yankee Stadium this past week, with the Yanks needing to pick up wins, and limited New York to six runs in three games, winning the series without really going all-out, totally convinced me: This team is winning the World Series.
Sure, there’s no ace here. No Snell, no Morton, no Glasnow to toss seven gnarly innings and dominate an opposing lineup three times through. But they’ve got a squadron full of quality hurlers who, even though you don’t know their names, will get your favorite large Yankee out in the eighth inning with two on.
The lineup is pretty similar to last year’s AL champions, who basically just relied on Randy Arozarena, but with two game-changing additions: Nelson Cruz and Wander Franco. The 41-year-old Cruz gives Tampa a certified, no-nonsense hitter in the middle of the lineup with a career 1.019 playoff OPS in 46 games. The 20-year-old Franco is a legitimate superstar who craves the spotlight, something this team hasn’t really had since Longoria left.
The Rays are awe-inspiring and frustrating, inexplicable and obvious, flawed and impenetrable, a modern baseball team built on depth, ready to add another title to the Tampa Bay trophy case.
NL DIVISION SERIES
Braves vs. Brewers (Game 1: Friday)
Jake's pick: Brewers
Pedro's pick: Brewers
Jordan's pick: Brewers
Ben's pick: Brewers
TBD vs. Giants (Game 1: Friday)
Jake's pick: Giants
Pedro's pick: Dodgers
Jordan's pick: Dodgers
Ben's pick: Cardinals
Odds to win World Series ahead of wild-card round:
Giants: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Brewers: +850 (bet $10 to win $95 total)
Braves: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Jake's take: That feeling has returned in San Francisco. This is a baseball club clicking on all cylinders, built to win in October. It’s 2010-2014 all over again, but this time we can watch the highlights on TikTok, too. Even though we haven’t seen the Gigantes in the playoffs since 2016, the main characters on the 2021 club have tons of October experience: Crawford, Longoria, Posey and, oh yeah, Kris Bryant is here, too. The bullpen has an ERA of 2.99, which is HUGE for playoff baseball.
"But what about the Dodgers?!?" Duh, they’re a juggernaut of a team, but we’ve seen them capitulate in October before. Remember every season before last? I think the Max Muncy and Clayton Kershaw injuries are series-altering losses for L.A., and I think the home-field advantage will play a role for San Fran in the end. Get ready to see those big, puffy, black Giants coats dotting the stands at Oracle Park because this team is primed for a deep October run.
AL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Jake's pick: Rays over White Sox
Pedro's pick: Astros over Rays
Jordan's pick: Astros over Rays
Ben's pick: White Sox over Rays
Ben's take: One thing you need to win in October? Pitching, and the White Sox certainly have that. Their rotation – sporting a top three of Lance Lynn, Carlos Rodón and Lucas Giolito – paired with a dominant back end of the bullpen, is as dominant as you will see in this year’s playoffs. But it doesn’t stop there for this squad. The lineup is full of exciting, young studs and savvy vets producing at an elite level. Many wrote this team off due to a weak division and not playing a ton of top talent. But not I. I love this team. I love every part of this roster. And when all is said and done, I believe the White Sox will be World Series champs.
NL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Jake's pick: Giants over Brewers
Pedro's pick: Dodgers over Brewers
Jordan's pick: Brewers over Dodgers
Ben's pick: Brewers over Cardinals
Jordan's take: If pitching and defense win championships, then the Brewers are the team I'll hitch my wagon to. The Rays showed the blueprint in 2020 of how far you can go with three dynamite starters and an army of funky, effective relievers, even if your offense is a tad underwhelming. This team even has Willy Adames, too, except this time he's absolutely raking and not flailing at sliders like he was last postseason!
The three-headed monster of Corbin Burnes/Brandon Woodruff/Freddy Peralta will match up well against anyone, but the steadiness of Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer might be what gives this team an edge in the later games of a series, when opponents don't have as much pitching depth.
In the way that Houston's entire lineup is above-average hitters, the Brewers basically won't ever put on the mound a pitcher who doesn't have a good ERA. At this point, I'm not going to hold my breath that Christian Yelich is going to return to MVP form this season (he really seems to still be hurt), but this lineup has dudes that scare you with Adames and Avisail Garcia. Don't expect a lot of high-scoring affairs involving the Brew Crew, but I think this could be the year they finally break through to the Fall Classic.
WORLD SERIES
Jake's pick: Rays over Giants
Pedro's pick: Dodgers over Astros
Jordan's pick: Astros over Brewers
Ben's pick: White Sox over Brewers
Pedro's take: Clayton Kershaw's and Max Muncy’s recent injuries wrench the Dodgers’ chances to a notable degree, but this is still the most talented team in the sport, a historically skilled squad that just so happened to finish second with 106 wins. Just imagine: If the Giants had performed as most of us expected this season, there would be no question who the World Series favorites are. It’d be the 106-win reigning champions. The Giants deserve enormous credit for their achievements, but the truth is that the Dodgers remain more talented – than them, than anyone in the NL, than anyone in the AL. That doesn’t mean the Dodgers will win. It doesn’t even mean they’ll win Wednesday. But it does mean it’s difficult to pick against them.
Jordan's take: There are a lot of powerful and star-studded lineups in this postseason, but I feel comfortable saying this Astros offense is the best of the bunch. Houston finished the regular season first in fWAR, first in wRC+, first in BA, first in OPB and third in SLG. But what really sets Houston apart is having the lowest strikeout rate in the league. At 19.4%, the Astros were the only team to post a strikeout rate lower than 20%, and they have a bevy of hitters who are quite simply a pain in the butt to pitch to.
Besides field general Martin Maldonado, every hitter in the Astros' lineup has had a good-to-great season, and they're tremendously balanced platoon-wise as well. Any lefty starter is going to have to get through Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman. Any righty will need to handle Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez and breakout star Kyle Tucker. That's a lot to deal with!
As for the pitching, it might not be quite as high-powered as the Cole/Verlander-led squads of recent years, but this group looks far more formidable (and experienced) than the rookie-laden group Dusty Baker had to keep turning to in 2020. The midseason additions to the bullpen (Kendall Graveman, Phil Maton, Yimi Garcia) complement an underrated pitching staff that quietly posted the seventh-best ERA in baseball (3.78).
Finally, I know there won't be many people rooting for Houston, but there aren't many people in baseball I'd love to see finally get a World Series ring more than Dusty Baker and Zack Greinke. And I think this team can do it.
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