Baltimore Orioles: Evaluating potential remaining free-agent options

It’s January. You know what that means. Time for Dan Duquette to shine and pull in a few free agents who may or may not help the Orioles in 2017.

It’s been a quiet, quiet offseason for the Baltimore Orioles, eerily reminiscent of the abysmal winter that followed the 2014 trip to the ALCS. That year, all the Orioles managed to do was bring back Delmon Young and trade for Travis Snider. For the Orioles, attempting to replace Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis with Young, Snider, and Alejandro De Aza worked out..well…poorly.

The 2016-17 offseason is shaping up to be another late push for the Orioles and GM Dan Duquette. Last year, Chris Davis signed in January with Pedro Alvarez, and Yovani Gallardo joining the O’s closer to Spring Training. Dexter Fowler was very nearly added to the fold, but the Orioles quibbled over a player option and missed out. Losing Fowler still stings, as he is the perfect compliment to the swing hard, early, and often approach most of the lineup employs.

Right now, the Orioles need to add a right fielder or designated hitter, a left-handed power bat wouldn’t hurt either. Same goes for a left-handed relief pitcher. Duquette has yet to make any signings of consequence since the offseason began, so it should be safe to assume he is sitting on a sizable pile of cash.

The Orioles have been linked to quite a few free agents this offseason, so without further ado, let’s dive right in and evaluate the potential remaining options and spend Dan Duquette’s money for him.

Sep 7, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Baltimore Orioles center fielder Michael Bourn (1) is congratulated in the dugout by teammates after hitting a home run during the third inning against the Tampa Bay Rays against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Michael Bourn, OF

Michael Bourn came over at the end of last season, and put up some respectable numbers for the Orioles. In 24 games, he slashed .283/.358/.435 with two homers and two steals. Buck Showalter fancied Bourn a more capable right fielder than Mark Trumbo, and he got a fair amount of run in the corner in September. Showalter liked what Bourn brought to the lineup and the clubhouse, and the feeling appeared to be mutual.

At 34, Bourn may have one or two more years of productive baseball in him. His defense is regressing as his range decreases, and his arm has never been great. Still, he is an upgrade over Trumbo in right field. A reunion with Bourn on a one-year deal could interest the Orioles if they strike out on all of their other targets.

If Bourn returns to the Orioles, he would give Showalter another left-handed option for the corners with Hyun Soo Kim. He has very solid career numbers against right-handed pitching. Ideally the Orioles will do better than Bourn, but it’s still hard to gauge how aggressive they plan to be in the final months of the offseason.

Oct 18, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays left fielder Michael Saunders (21) hits a single during the sixth inning against the Cleveland Indians in game four of the 2016 ALCS playoff baseball series at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Michael Saunders, OF

Michael Saunders is an intriguing buy-low candidate for the Orioles. He appeared destined for a rich, multi-year deal before flaming out spectacularly in the second half. After the break, Saunders slashed .178/.282/.357 with only eight home runs and 15 RBIs. He also has a history of knee troubles, and missed most of the 2015 season. That alone could keep the Orioles away unless the outfielder is willing to take a one-year deal.

For half a season last year, Saunders showed why he had always been such an intriguing prospect. He batted .298/.372/.551 with 16 homers and 25 doubles to earn his first All-Star nod. Those numbers obviously fell off a cliff.

Saunders is a career .235/.309/.402 hitter with nearly a strikeout per game. First half of 2016 aside, his ceiling may not be far off from the .253/.338/.478 line he finished the year with. Even in a pure platoon role, Saunders’ numbers do not promote much optimism.

So far, no team has stepped up to show much serious interest in Michael Saunders, and he is likely destined for a one-year deal in the $6-8 million range. That’s doable for the Orioles if they are willing to overlook his past injury issues, breakdown in the second half of 2016, and mediocre defense. Something tells me Saunders is a hard pass for the O’s.

Sep 27, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Chris Carter (33) watches his two run home run in the first inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Chris Carter/Pedro Alvarez, DH

Chris Carter was a surprising addition to the free-agent class of 2016 after the Milwaukee Brewers elected to non-tender him. Carter hit 41 home runs last year, but did strike out 206 times. On the plus side, he did manage to draw 76 walks in 160 games. That would have put him second on the Orioles. Carter’s .821 OPS was only slightly lower than Mark Trumbo’s .850.

Pedro Alvarez was a late addition to the Orioles last March, but he fared quite well. In his first season as a pure platooner, Alvarez hit 22 home runs in 109 games (one every 15 at-bats compared to one every 19 at-bats for his career). He did exactly what he was supposed to, slashing .251/.326/.522 against right-handed pitching, really blossoming into his role in June, July, and August before losing playing time in September and cooling off.

Trumbo will eventually sign a multi-year deal, while Carter is likely looking at a one-year pillow contract. The Orioles pulled their $50-plus million offer from Trumbo, but having seen them come back to Chris Davis last winter, it’s a safe assumption that Duquette has another offer for Trumbo up his sleeve, especially if his market continues to dwindle.

If Trumbo finds a better deal than what the Orioles are willing to offer him (doubtful), then Carter is the natural fallback option. He would be coming to Baltimore only to DH, and keeping a left-handed partner for him would also make sense. By nabbing Carter over Trumbo and retaining Alvarez, the Orioles can keep their DH production relatively level compared to last year while finding a better defender for right field.

Sep 6, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies relief pitcher Boone Logan (48) delivers a pitch in the ninth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Coors Field. The Giants defeated the Rockies 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Boone Logan, LHP

The Orioles spent most of 2016 without a dedicated left-handed specialist in their bullpen. Having the dominant core of Mychal Givens, Brad Brach, Darren O’Day, and Zach Britton, who all fare well against hitters from both sides of the plate makes it easier for Buck Showalter to get by without a LOOGY. Down the stretch, the Orioles discovered that lefty sidewinder Donnie Hart was actually quite good, but the ‘pen could always use one more dominant left-hander.

There are not a ton of great left-handed relief options left on the open market, but Boone Logan leads the small pack. Travis Wood is also a free agent, but has eyes on returning to the starting rotation. Logan held lefties to a .142/.222/.255 line last year with a microscopic .215 BABIP. He is due for a contract that pays at least $7 million per year, which may be too rich for the Orioles, but is worth considering.

Logan would represent a luxury not a need for the Orioles, and the current front office has shown very little interest in luxury purchases. The Orioles will have a very good bullpen with or without another left-handed option should Hart falter. Another lefty would hardly be a bad thing, and would allow Givens to focus his talents solely on right-handed hitters. The Orioles are still looking at more than a few five-inning clunkers from their starting rotation next year, and strengthening the bullpen is one way to counterbalance that.

Oct 19, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista (19) hits a double during the ninth inning against the Cleveland Indians in game five of the 2016 ALCS playoff baseball series at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Jose Bautista, DH/RF

Dan Duquette was all over Bautista at the Winter Meetings, kindly letting him know that the Orioles were not interested because Baltimore fans simply do not like him. As the price keeps dropping lower and lower, there is a chance Orioles fans could learn to love the brash right fielder. If there is one manager in baseball capable of moving on from past disputes, it is Showalter.

Bautista is clearly in the downward arc of his career, but should be looking to come back with a vengeance in 2017 after struggling with injuries in 2016. Bautista has always fed off doubters and “haters” (perceived or real), and he has plenty to stoke his internal fire entering next season.

At no point last year did Bautista ever really look like the player who went to six straight All-Star Games. He will have a hard time matching the qualifying offer. It would not be surprising to see him settle for one year and $10-12 million at this point, if he even signs before Opening Day. Bautista grossly overestimated his value on the open market at the age of 36.

Bautista’s value will have to sink very low for the Orioles to grab him, especially with the draft pick still tied to his name. Duquette may be willing to walk back from his comments at some point, but Bautista will have to get a little more desperate and willing to take an extremely team-friendly offer.

Oct 7, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; San Francisco Giants left fielder Angel Pagan (16) hits a double against the Chicago Cubs during the fourth inning during game one of the 2016 NLDS playoff baseball series at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

Angel Pagan, OF

Angel Pagan is the exact type of player the Orioles need to fill out their lineup. He is a consistent, heady player who avoids strikeouts, puts the ball in play consistently, can still run, and will take his walks. Pagan also comes with plenty of postseason experience from his time with the San Francisco Giants. Injuries are the only concern.

In his 11 big-league seasons, Pagan is a .280/.330/.408 hitter with 176 steals to his name. He missed big chunks of the 2013 and 2014 seasons with nagging injuries, but the Orioles would not be asking him to play all 162 games or put his body through 40 stolen base attempts. Rajai Davis recently signed a $6 million deal to play for the Oakland A’s in 2017, and Pagan might not cost much more than that.

The Orioles need players to balance out their homer-centric offense. Pagan can do that. He is also a switch hitter, which makes it easier for Showalter to split up at-bats for Rickard and Kim. Defensively, Pagan is no longer a great defender (if he ever was to begin with), but he is still an upgrade over Trumbo. On a low-risk, one-year contract, signing Pagan makes too much sense for the Orioles. He could also bring an end to the years-long search for a true leadoff hitter who can effectively set the table for the big boppers further down the order.

Oct 4, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Baltimore Orioles right fielder Mark Trumbo (45) celebrates with third base coach Bobby Dickerson (11) after hitting a two run home run against the Toronto Blue Jays during the fourth inning in the American League wild card playoff baseball game at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Mark Trumbo, DH/RF

By now, it should be pretty evident to Mark Trumbo that he is not going to do better than the initial four-year offer the Orioles dangled at the Winter Meetings. The A’s are rumored to have some interest, as are the Colorado Rockies. That’s about it as far as the Trumbo market goes. The only thing that remains to be seen is if the Orioles will put his offer back on the table.

My best guess is that the Orioles are still very interested in reuniting with Trumbo, and that feeling should be mutual. In his first season with Baltimore, Trumbo excelled, and was mostly consistent enough to warrant interest in a multi-year deal. His only truly awful month came in August when he batted .184 but still managed 10 home runs. If Chris Davis can return to form, that should make things much easier for Trumbo and the rest of the lineup.

Trumbo is definitely a boom-or-bust player, but the Orioles have made a living on homering and striking out the past six years. The rest of the lineup will continue to do those things either way, and any other DH the club signs to replace Trumbo will continue to perpetuate that approach. Trumbo is not perfect, but he works for the Orioles and their offense. The only catch is that the front office must find a more competent right fielder, pushing Trumbo to full-time DH, which is where he would have been last year had the Fowler deal not fallen apart.