Atlanta Braves Getting Dissed By Rosenthal?

Oct 15, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs catcher Miguel Montero (47) is interviewed by Ken Rosenthal after defeating the Los Angeles Dodgers during game one of the 2016 NLCS playoff baseball series at Wrigley Field. Cubs won 8-4. Mandatory Credit: Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports

Ken Rosenthal tries to put a spin on why the Braves didn’t get Chris Sale and probably won’t get Chris Archer this Fall… a message that isn’t sitting well with fans.

This isn’t the first time that a nationally known voice has raised the ire of Braves’ Country – Jim Callis, the prospect watcher at MLB.com thinks that Atlanta Braves fans hate him… and that is probably true.

After this Summer’s trade deadline, Callis loudly and proudly proclaimed the Yankees with the best farm system in baseball, and other comments suggest a lot of Red Sox love, too:

Baseball's deepest farm system has sent some interesting prospects to the @MLBazFallLeague https://t.co/XHl2W4ubf3

— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) October 25, 2016

(Context on that first tweet was the Yankees)

I second what @JonathanMayo says — bet Gleyber Torres is in top five of Top 100 when we redo the list in January. @Yankees https://t.co/c5vqXDxNUU

— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) November 18, 2016

The @RedSox gave up four of their six best prospects. Moncada arguably best prospect in game, Kopech not far off from best mound prospect.

— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) December 6, 2016

So now Ken Rosenthal is trying to explain why the Braves didn’t win the Chris Sale sweepstakes… and why they aren’t likely to get Chris Archer either. It’s also about the farm system. Here’s his opening salvo:

The Braves are in a tricky spot. They appear eager to take a step forward in their first season at SunTrust Park. But their farm system was not quite mature enough for them to acquire Sale, and might not be mature enough for them to get, say, the Rays’ Chris Archer.

Let’s start with the obvious point to be made here: the Braves didn’t get Chris Sale because Dansby Swanson wasn’t in the offer.

You could also proceed to argue that the Nationals didn’t get Sale because Trea Turner wasn’t included in their offer. But does that mean their farm system wasn’t ‘mature’ enough to get the deal? No. One has nothing to do with the other.

Heck, everyone was suggesting weeks earlier that the Braves were one of the few teams with enough to offer the White Sox for Sale. So suddenly in hindsight the farm system isn’t up to the task? What?

The Red Sox threw in Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech, which trumped everyone. The White Sox knew that Dombrowski was sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the other top bids to come in, and then Rick Hahn simply him “Here’s what’s on the table” – and Dombrowski beat it.

Could the Braves have beaten the Boston offer? Absolutely. They didn’t choose to.

Could the Nationals have done so? Maybe…though clearly they had other aspirations as well and needed to retain some trading power… at least until they got Adam Eaton.

But the Rosenthal comment speaks of “maturity”, which is frankly a bizarre word to use for prospects… and by the way: Michael Kopech is 20 years old, Yoan Moncada is 21.

Kopech hasn’t thrown less than 160 professional innings at all levels (none above High-A) and Moncada had just 61 games in High-A, 45 in AA before an 8 game call-up in September.

If your argument is about the ‘maturity’ of a farm system, then you’ve lost the argument, Ken: there is talent with those players – no doubt; but ‘maturity’ is definitely wrong word here.

Sep 27, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher David Price (24) reacts after giving up a two-run home run to New York Yankees first baseman Tyler Austin (26) during the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

That High-Risk High Reward Thing

Let’s move on to another point from Rosenthal:

Club officials also are high on the upside of the Braves’ bevy of young pitchers, even though some rival executives and prospect analysts view most of those pitchers as high-risk types with ceilings as mid-rotation starters.

First off, how many true ‘Aces’ are there in baseball? A dozen? Fifteen?

There are 150 rotation jobs in the major leagues. If you don’t believe that filling those 150 slots isn’t valuable to an organization, then please see what Rich Hill‘s contract looks like. Or that of 43-year-old Bartolo Colon. Even back-end-of-the-rotation guys have value – especially if they can reliably proivde innings and keep their team in games.

But about these “high risk” “high-upside” guys…if your organization doesn’t have these kinds of pitchers, then you will have a lot of something else: I call these guys ‘5th starters’, ‘AAAA’, and ‘relievers’.

Teams need players with high ceilings – because it is seldom that you see an 10th-40th round draft pick develop into something more.

Let’s look here’s the draft positions of the top 11 drafted pitchers with the top pitching WAR this year:

What have the Braves done in rebuilding their farm system? They’ve bought, begged, scraped and connived to bring back top talent:

That clearly doesn’t mean that all of these guys are going to turn into those on the prior list… but this is exactly the kind of talent that makes those ace-level pitchers.

Will some of these guys fail to make the majors? Yes – absolutely. But that’s why you see a lot of 3-for-1 like trades when shipping prospects out for major league talent… it’s because of the hope that one of the 3 will ‘hit’… not that all 3 will.

But for Rosenthal to suggest that there are not impact players in this crop because they only project to ‘mid-rotation starters’ is preposterous. Just as the Rays about how many hits they’ve had recently on their starters – not just Archer, but ‘mid-rotation’ arms Smyly, Odorizzi, or Moore.

Besides: there are as many evaluations as evaluators and even Jim Callis and the MLB Pipeline people now have 4 Braves’ pitchers in the Top 100 overall… and that doesn’t even count Fried or Toussaint.

How many other clubs can say that Ken?

In short: beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but to complain about ‘high risk’ talent is to complain against all pitchers in general… for they’re all ‘high risk’.

Jul 29, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves former pitcher John Smol tz (29) signs autographs before a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Rosenthal Tries to Balance the Scale

But a year from now, the Braves should be in better position to make firm evaluations on their youngsters — and, if enough of those players progress, better position to get any big piece they need.

Bless his heart.

There’s a reason that scouts exist in the sport of baseball. They are present to look at “today” while projecting about “tomorrow”.

It’s an art form. But a vital piece as old as the game itself.

With no scouting, Steve Searcy would be a footnote in Braves baseball and John Smoltz would be a hall-of-famer for the Tigers. Without scouting, players like Evan Gattis or Andrelton Simmons might never have been discovered… or any others for that matter.

If a scout believes that a prospect has the potential to ‘turn it around’ or ‘break out’, that’s usually enough for a team to say ‘I want that kid’, for talent – as we’ve discussed – is hard to come by. The more talent you can amass, the better you will be.