Astros are taking off, looking like an early contender

By Ian Casselberry

One of the more exciting aspects of the 2015 MLB season was the number of teams that looked capable of becoming new contenders. The Cubs, Mets, White Sox, Marlins and Padres all appeared ready to make significant improvements, due to offseason acquisitions, young players developing into stars — or both, in some cases.

Another club that seemed poised to take a step forward going into the season was the Houston Astros. Last year, the Astros improved by 19 wins, finishing with a 70-92 record — their best mark in four seasons. With the emergence of George Springer, Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh and Jake Marisnick, the team looked capable of getting even better. Houston’s front office seemed to agree, adding veterans such as Jed Lowrie, Colby Rasmus, Luke Gregerson, Luis Valbuena and Evan Gattis to its young core. The Astros had the appearance of an upstart about to come together.

But as the schedule moves into May, Houston’s development into a contender may be accelerating even faster than anticipated. AfterThursday’s 3-2 victory over the Mariners in 10 innings, the Astros have won seven consecutive games, boosting them to a four-game lead in the AL West. With a 15-7 record going into Friday’s play, Houston is tied for the best record in the AL with the Royals. Only the Cardinals currently have a better mark in MLB, and only the Mets have a larger first-place lead (by a half-game).

Yes, it can still be considered early. We’ve only played one month of the season. Last year at this time, the Yankees, Braves and Brewers had first-place leads in their respective divisions and didn’t qualify for the playoffs. (Milwaukee had a five-game lead in the NL Central on May 1.) And the Athletics eventually had to squeak into the postseason as a wild-card, losing the one-game playoff to Kansas City. Finishing April with a division lead and the league’s best record is no guarantee of making the postseason. Though you likely already knew that.

So what’s going on here? How are the Astros doing this?

Where the success is really coming from is pitching. Houston has the best team ERA in the league at 3.04, holding opponents to a .219 batting average and .610 OPS. Astros starting pitchers have compiled a 3.50 ERA and .667 opponents’ OPS, while their relievers have posted a 2.18 ERA and .493 OPS. Keuchel is establishing himself as the staff ace, with an 0.73 ERA, 3-0 record and a rate of four hits allowed per nine innings in his first five starts. Gregerson has been a reliable closer, striking out eight batters in 11 innings with one walk and two earned runs allowed. But Tony Sipp, Chad Qualls and Will Harris are each averaging 10 or more strikeouts per nine innings out of the bullpen.

The Astros certainly aren’t mashing the ball. As a team, Houston is hitting .238 with a .727 OPS. However, they’re tied for the AL lead with 20 homers. The Astros were expected to show some big power, but Luis Valbuena, Jed Lowrie and Colby Rasmus are currently the team’s top home run hitters, which likely isn’t what many projected.

Speed has also been a big component of their game, with 29 stolen bases in 34 attempts. Jose Altuve has nine steals in 11 attempts, picking up where he left off last season as the AL leader in that category. Springer and Marisnick are right behind him, each stealing eight bases and only getting caught once.

Typically, you’d look for players having early success that seems unlikely to continue over a full season. But the argument could be made that the Astros might improve on offense. Springer is only hitting .200. Gattis is batting .164 with a .485 OPS. Chris Carter has a .160 average and .521 OPS, with 31 strikeouts in 86 plate appearances. Neither of these batters has shown an ability to hit for a high average, but will they continue to hit this badly? And as they make more contact, better power should follow.

One significant blow the lineup suffered is the loss of Lowrie, who tore a ligament in his right thumb that required surgery to repair. He’s expected to be sidelined until after the All-Star break. The Astros’ shortstop was batting .300/.432/.567 with four homers and 10 RBI. For now, Houston will replace Lowrie with a combination of Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Villar. Gonzalez batted .277/.327/.400 in 310 PAs last season, so that pair could be productive enough to get by until mid-July.

However, it could become awfully tempting to call up top prospect Carlos Correa, who’s currently hitting .385 with a 1.198 OPS, 11 doubles, five homers, 22 RBI and five stolen bases in Double-A. General manager Jeff Luhnow insists the team won’t rush Correa, as he only has 88 plate appearances above the Single-A level. The 20-year-old likely needs at least one more full season in the minors before being considered ready for the majors. Yet if Gonzalez and Villar struggle, and Lowrie’s recovery stalls, Correa might look like an increasingly attractive option.

That level of performance from the pitching staff might just keep the Astros competitive in the AL West. The guess is that the Mariners, Angels and Athletics will eventually play better as they were expected to. Yet that’s certainly not a foregone conclusion.

What’s becoming apparent is that Houston isn’t necessarily destined for the fourth-place finish that was predicted. A .500 record certainly seems attainable in light of the team’s early success, and that would show impressive progress to build on for next year. But maybe this young club is already showing that it should aim a little higher. Such heights actually might be within reach.

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