A's Jharel Cotton Potential Breakout in 2017: Fantasy Value

Jharel Cotton was impressive for the A’s over his first five starts after being dealt to the club in 2016. Could he be a breakout fantasy candidate this season?

The Oakland A’s did not have too many bright spots last season in what was another lost year. But quietly, Jharel Cotton was solid over his first five starts with the A’s. While many scouts are split on his ceiling, he showed the promise that warranted Oakland to deal for from the Dodgers last season.

Cotton was drafted by the Dodgers in the 20th round in the 2012 draft. The 24-year-old has a rocky minor league career. Across four minor league seasons, the righty has only posted one season of a ERA under 4.00. His best season was in 2015, 2.45 ERA over 95 innings, but he has struggled outside of that year.

Cotton had simply been struggling to maintain velocity, while refining his secondary stuff. Which was one of the reasons why many thought he was ticketed to the bullpen. But, once he came over to the A’s, things started to click.

From a stuff standpoint, Cotton’s fastball sat in the low-90s last season, his cutter sat at 89 mph, while his changeup averaged in at 78 mph, and he also sprinkles in a curve as well. His money pitch is undoubtedly, the changeup. Even though it was a small sample, it already ranks as one of the best in the league.

The pitch already has a near 15 mph velocity dip from his fastball, but the depth and movement it showed was downright fantastic. According to Fangraphs, the pitch had nearly 7.4 inches of drop, a well above average dip from the other top changeups in baseball. During his four starts in September, batters had a .040 AVG against the pitch. It is nasty.

The fastball is mediocre, but the inclusion of his cutter is a positive sign. The pitch may already be his second best offering, as it can curb some of his long ball tendencies by getting in on RHB. His command is solid as well, only four BB over 29 innings last season.

In terms of his K potential, it will all depend on the continued development of his secondary stuff. The changeup is already a wipe out pitch, but if he can command his fastball, and keep implementing his cutter, a 6.0 K/9 is definitely maintainable. He will not light the world on fire, but he is being widely overlooked.

Making half of his starts in the Coliseum will boast his fantasy value as well, and even though the A’s offense will not offer a lot of run support, he should offer enough in the other categories to hold SP4 of SP5 value.